Magsaysay Award winner Sandeep Pandey booked for criticizing Savarkar

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Feb 19: Pay increases across India’s organized sector will probably grow at the slowest pace since 2009 this year, according to a survey from Aon Plc.

Companies will increase average pay by 9.1% in 2020, down from 9.3% in 2019 and 9.5% the previous year, Aon said in a report published Tuesday. The small increase reflects a deep slowdown in Asia’s third-largest economy, where growing pessimism about job prospects have led many to cut down on consumption -- the main driver to growth.

India still leads the Asia-Pacific region in pay rises, but that is mainly due to higher inflation and a “war for key talent and niche skills,” Aon said.

“There is a general air of caution about the economy as we enter into 2020,” Tzeitel Fernandes, partner for rewards solutions at Aon, told reporters in New Delhi. “Low GDP projection and weak consumer sentiment are the reasons behind our lowest ever prediction.”

E-commerce companies and start-ups will probably get the biggest salary increases, projected at an above-average 10%, while financial institutions will hand out 8.5%. Unsurprisingly, the auto sector witnessed the biggest drop in growth -- down to 8.3% from 10.1% in 2018, according to Aon. The survey covered more than 1,000 companies across over 20 industries.

United Nations, May 20: Highlighting India's long-standing history of promoting inclusive and peaceful societies, a top UN official on Tuesday voiced concern over incidents of "increased hate speech and discrimination" against minority communities in the country following the adoption of the Citizenship Amendment Act.

Under-Secretary-General and UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide Adama Dieng, however, welcomed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for unity and brotherhood in the wake of the COVID19 pandemic.

Dieng said in a note to the media on Tuesday that he is "concerned over reports of increased hate speech and discrimination against minority communities in India" since the adoption of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in December 2019.

The Indian government has maintained that the CAA is an internal matter of the country and stressed that the goal is to protect the oppressed minorities of neighbouring countries.

The CAA, which was notified on January 10, grants Indian citizenship to non-Muslim minorities migrated to India from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh till December 31, 2014, following persecution over their faith.

"While the objective of the act, to provide protection to minority communities is commendable, it is concerning that this protection is not extended to all groups, including Muslims. This is contrary to India’s obligations under international human rights law, in particular on non-discrimination,” Dieng said.

The Special Adviser recognised "India’s long standing and well recognised history of promoting inclusive and peaceful societies, with respect for equality and principles of non-discrimination.”

He also welcomed recent statements by Prime Minister Modi that the COVID-19 pandemic “does not see race, religion, colour, caste, creed, language or border before striking and that our response and conduct...should attach primacy to unity and brotherhood.”

Dieng encouraged the Government of India to "continue to abide by this guidance by ensuring that national laws and policies follow international standards related to non-discrimination and to address and counter the rise of hate speech through messages of inclusion, respect for diversity and unity.”

He further reiterated that he would continue to follow developments and expressed his readiness to support initiatives to counter and address hate speech.

The hate speech and the dehumanisation of others goes against international human rights norms and values, he added.

“In these extraordinary times brought about by the COVID-19 crisis it is more important than ever that we stand united as one humanity, demonstrating unity and solidarity rather than division and hate,” he said.

Dieng also expressed concern over reports of violence during demonstrations against CAA in some regions of India.