Majority of Brexiters would swap free movement for EU market access

Agencies
July 17, 2017

Jul 17: The majority of Brexit supporters would be happy to swap European free movement for single market access, according to two studies which suggest ways for Britain to pull back from the brink in the upcoming negotiations.Brexiters

Amid calls for the government to loosen its opposition to free movement in order to protect the economy when Britain leaves the EU, the research shows compromise would result in far less popular backlash than is assumed. Campaigners opposing hard Brexit claim it also vindicates their new slogan “no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit”.

In a poll conducted by YouGov three weeks after the general election, 1,600 adults were asked how important they thought it was to reduce immigration from the EU.

Framed as an isolated issue, the study confirmed that public opinion is still deeply divided a year on from the Brexit referendum: 72% of leave voters rated immigration either as very important or the most important issue in the talks, and 74% of remain voters said the opposite, ranking it less important or not important at all.

When asked to consider free movement as a trade-off for single market access – a principle described last week as “indivisible” by EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier – British voters appear far more pragmatic and united.

Leave voters would be evenly split if the government tried to keep full access to the single market in exchange for allowing a version of free movement that limited welfare benefits for new arrivals. Across the country as a whole, twice as many voters would be satisfied with this option than not, even though it goes no further than the deal struck by David Cameron before the referendum.

But support for a trade-off soars when voters are offered the option of other limitations on free movement that are used by some countries in the single market. Asked to consider a system where EU migrants were sent home if they did not find work, 55% of leave voters said they would be satisfied with this, versus only 25% who would be unhappy. There was only slightly less support for an “emergency brake” option to control surges in immigration.

Best For Britain, a pressure group opposed to hard Brexit that commissioned the research, said it proved it was wrong to assume that the referendum result meant Britain wished to ban free movement whatever the cost.

“Our polling shows that a huge majority of people across the country support freedom of movement if they too can keep their own rights to live, work and study abroad,” said its chief executive, Eloise Todd. “The picture is much more nuanced than the government has portrayed, with clear support for some limitations on freedom of movement that are already within the government’s control.”

The reputation of opinion polling has suffered since the surprises of the referendum and June’s general election, but YouGov’s conclusion is supported by other methods of assessing the public mood.

A separate study by researchers at King’s College London, the Rand thinktank and Cambridge University used a technique called “stated preference discrete choice experiments” to ask people to weight different priorities.

It found very little appetite for the government’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” approach to the talks, and voters much keener to compromise.

“Our research is one of the most rigorous assessments to date of what the public wants from Brexit, and it clearly shows that the British people do not wish to head over a cliff edge and leave the EU on World Trade Organisation rules – they want a proper deal,” said Jonathan Grant, the professor of public policy at King’s College London. “The British public are sophisticated enough to understand that they can’t ‘have their cake and eat it’, and will need to make and accept compromises to reach a deal.”

The team found that supposed red lines on immigration and leaving the European court of justice were far less important to voters than the government.

“While our results do show a desire to control movement of people to some extent, we find that this stems from a concern about managing demand for public services, rather than from wanting to limit freedom of movement per se,” wrote the team led by Charlene Rohr of Rand.

“Our analysis indicated that, on average, respondents would prefer a future relationship in which the UK is able to make and interpret all laws itself, but this was considered less important than maintaining free trade or being able to negotiate new trade deals independently.”

The new picture of public opinion comes as polls show overall support for Brexit dipping sharply as talks deteriorate, leading some campaigners to argue that the government must now invert its “no deal is better than a bad deal” slogan.

“It’s increasingly clear that no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit: no one voted to become poorer or have their rights reduced,” said Todd. “The government has committed to delivering the ‘exact same benefits’ out of Brexit for the UK and its people – that means guaranteeing citizens’ rights as they stand, and right now the government is failing on that measure by its own standards.”

Options for a softer Brexit

Efta membership Perhaps the most radical, but obvious, solution to Britain’s Brexit wobble would be to seek some form of membership of the European Free Trade Association, which the UK was in between 1960 and 1972. First designed as a stepping stone toward EU membership, this prosperous club comprising Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein could serve the same role this time in reverse – at least until Britain was clearer on its final destination. At a bare minimum it could give the UK access to an internal market of four nearby economies, as well as a host of existing global trade deals. Joining just Efta would require freedom of movement but only among its four, relatively small, members.

“It could provide an elegant and relatively swift solution to some of the challenges facing the UK in securing post-Brexit trade agreements with non-EU partners,” concludes a new London School of Economics research. “The combination of continuity and flexibility could prove very valuable as the UK navigates the numerous uncertainties of the Brexit process”

Far more contentious would be using Efta to access the European Economic Area (EEA) and the wider single market of the EU, as Norway does. This is the option that gives Brexiters nightmares as it involves accepting EU rules on freedom of movement, regulation and payments, with little corresponding influence. But if this is the price of single market access either way, Efta at least provides a framework.

A customs union A less onerous alternative to the EEA might be to seek more limited access to European goods markets by striking a new customs deal with the EU, as Turkey has done. Not to be confused with the EU’s own internal customs union, which is reserved for members, this would guarantee the tariff-free frictionless trade sought by Tories and Labour, but (possibly) without all the burdens of full single market participation.

A customs union would undoubtedly come with a cost, especially in terms of Britain’s freedom to strike new international trade deals. However, recent Treasury research suggests the benefits of continued access for manufacturing supply chains far outweigh the unproven allure of far-flung new export markets. Proponents of this approach also point out that Liam Fox’s international trade department might still be able to seek new deals in the service sector instead, where Britain’s economic future looks brighter.

Associate status It is far from clear that either the Norway or Turkish models would automatically be on offer to post-Brexit Britain, but even more wishful thinking is apparent in another idea proposed by some Tories. They would like to see Britain seek associate membership of key regulatory agencies, such as Euratom and the European Medicines Agency, as a way to soften the blow of leaving the EU sector by sector.

At the very least this is likely to involve abandoning Theresa May’s opposition to the jurisdiction of the European court of justice. Ongoing associate membership would also come at a financial cost that would swell the size of Britain’s giant divorce bill. But the cost of replicating decades of accumulated bureaucracy from scratch without any international cooperation may well prove even higher.

No Brexit Vince Cable and Tony Blair have both recently predicted that Brexit may yet be abandoned entirely. As far-fetched as this might seem now, if Britain chooses the softer Brexit routes above, then it would have to accept most of the political compromises of EU membership anyway. A few years of pressing our face to the glass like Norway may be just what it takes to change Britain’s mind.

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News Network
February 26,2020

Feb 26: Looking out over the world’s largest cricket stadium, the seats jammed with more than 100,000 people, India’s prime minister heaped praise on his American visitor.

“The leadership of President Trump has served humanity,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Monday, highlighting Trump’s fight against terrorism and calling his 36-hour visit to India a watershed in India-U.S. relations.

The crowds cheered. Trump beamed.

“The ties between India and the U.S. are no longer just any other partnership,” Modi said. “It is a far greater and closer relationship.”

India, it seems, loves Donald Trump. It seemed obvious from the thousands who turned out to wave as his motorcade snaked through the city of Ahmedabad, and from the tens of thousands who filled the city’s new stadium. It seemed obvious from the hug that Modi gave Trump after he descended from Air Force One, and from the hundreds of billboards proclaiming Trump’s visit.

But it’s not so simple.

Because while Trump is genuinely popular in India, his clamorous and carefully choreographed welcome was also about Asian geopolitics, China’s growing power and a masterful Indian politician who gave his American visitor exactly what he wanted.

Modi “is doing this not necessarily because he loves Trump,” said Tanvi Madan, the director of the India Project at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. “It’s very much about Trump as the leader of the U.S. and recognizing what it is that Trump himself likes.”

Trump likes crowds — big crowds — and the foot soldiers of India’s political parties have long known how to corral enough people to make any politician look popular. In a city like Ahmedabad, the capital of Modi’s home state of Gujarat and the center of his power base, it wouldn’t take much effort to fill a cavernous sports stadium. It was more surprising that a handful of seats remained empty, and that some in the stands had left even before Trump had finished his speech.

For India, good relations with the U.S. are deeply important: They signal that India is a serious global player, an issue that has long been important to New Delhi, and help cement an alliance that both nations see as a counterweight to China’s rise.

“For both countries, their biggest rival is China,” said John Echeverri-Gent, a professor at the University of Virginia whose research often focuses on India. “China is rapidly expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean, which India has long considered its backyard and its exclusive realm for security concerns.”

“It’s very clearly a major concern for both India and the United States,” he said.

Trump isn’t the first U.S. president that Modi has courted. In 2015, then-President Barack Obama was the first American chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade, a powerful symbolic gesture. Obama also got a Modi hug, and the media in both countries were soon writing about the two leaders’ “bromance.”

Trump is popular in India, even if some of that is simply because he’s the U.S. president. A 2019 Pew Research Center poll showed that 56% of Indians had confidence in Trump’s abilities in world affairs, one of only a handful of countries where he has that level of approval. But Obama was also popular: Before he left office, he had 58% approval in world affairs among Indians.

The Pew poll also indicated that Trump’s support was higher among supporters of Modi’s Hindu nationalist party.

That’s not surprising. Both men have fired up their nationalist bases with anti-Muslim rhetoric and government policies, from Trump’s travel bans to Modi’s crackdown in Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state.

And Trump’s Indian support is far from universal. Protests against his trip roiled cities from New Delhi to Hyderabad to the far northeastern city of Gauhati, although those demonstrations were mostly overshadowed by protests over a new Indian citizenship law that Modi backs.

Modi, who is widely popular in India, has faced weeks of protests over the law, which provides fast track naturalization for some foreign-born religious minorities — but not Muslims. While Trump talked about ties with India on Tuesday, Hindus and Muslims fought in violent clashes that left at least 10 people dead over two days.

In some ways, Modi and Trump are powerful echoes of each other.

They have overlapping political styles. Both are populists who see themselves as brash, rule-breaking outsiders who disdain their countries’ traditional elites. Both are seen by their critics as having authoritarian leanings. Both surround themselves with officials who rarely question their decisions.

But are they friends?

Trump says yes. “Really, we feel very strongly about each other,” he said at a New Delhi press briefing.

But many observers aren’t so sure.

“The question is how much of this is real chemistry, as opposed to what I’d call planned chemistry” orchestrated for diplomatic reasons, said Madan. “It’s so hard to know if you’re not in the room.”

Certainly, Modi understands America’s importance to India. While the two countries continue to bicker about trade issues, the prime minister organized a welcome that impressed even India’s news media, which have watched countless choreographed mass political rallies.

“There is no other country for whose leader India would hold such an event, and for which an Indian prime minister would lavish such rhetoric,” the Hindustan Times said in an editorial.

“The spectacle and the sound were worth a thousand agreements.”

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News Network
March 31,2020

Washington, Mar 31: The United States has performed over one million coronavirus tests so far, said President Donald Trump on Monday.

"Today, we reached a historic milestone in our war against coronavirus. Over 1 million Americans have now been tested, more than any other country by far, not even close," Trump said during a press briefing.

US Health Secretary Alex Azar said that approximately 100,000 samples are tested for coronavirus daily.

The number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases within the United States surpassed 150,000 and the death toll has reached 2828, according to Johns Hopkins University. 

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News Network
May 3,2020

London, May 3: The British government had a contingency plan for prime minister Boris Johnson’s death as his condition deteriorated while he battled COVID-19 last month in intensive care, Johnson said in an interview with The Sun newspaper.

Johnson returned to work on Monday, a month after testing positive for COVID-19. Johnson, 55, spent 10 days in isolation in Downing Street from late March, but was then was taken to London’s St Thomas’ Hospital where he received oxygen treatment and spent three nights in intensive care.

“They had a strategy to deal with a ‘death of Stalin’-type scenario,” Johnson, 55, was quoted as saying by The Sun. “It was a tough old moment, I won’t deny it.”

After Johnson was discharged, St Thomas’ said it was glad to have cared for the prime minister, but the hospital has given no details about the gravity of his illness beyond stating that he was treated in intensive care.

Johnson and his fiancée, Carrie Symonds, on Saturday announced the name of their newly born son as Wilfred Lawrie Nicholas, partly as a tribute to two of the intensive care doctors who they said had saved Johnson’s life.

“The doctors had all sorts of arrangements for what to do if things went badly wrong,” Johnson said of his COVID-19 battle. “The bloody indicators kept going in the wrong direction.”

He said doctors discussed invasive ventilation.

“The bad moment came when it was 50-50 whether they were going to have to put a tube down my windpipe,” he said. “That was when it got a bit . . . they were starting to think about how to handle it presentationally.”

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