Making India $5 trillion economy challenging but achievable: PM Modi

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

New Delhi, Jun 11: Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot has obliquely hinted that the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is pulling out all stops to destabilise the Congress-led government by luring some of the ruling party’s members of the legislative assembly (MLAs) with Rs 25 crore each.

He alleged that the BJP’s plan is similar to that of toppling the erstwhile Kamal Nath-led government in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and some of his party lawmakers have been offered Rs 10 crore each in advance of the promised sum of Rs 25 crore.

The CM made these allegations while speaking to media persons late on Wednesday night, when the Congress took its 107 party MLAs and 13 independent lawmakers to a resort located on the outskirts of Jaipur for a meeting ahead of the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls for three seats from the desert state slated to be held on June 19.

The 120 MLAs will be shifted to the resort on Thursday.

“Our MLAs are intelligent, alert, and united. Rajasthan is the only state in the country, where 13 independent MLAs supported our government for neither exchange of any money nor post. However, the condition on which our MLAs left the party for the BJP in MP is not good,” Gehlot said.

Rajasthan government’s chief whip Mahesh Joshi in a complaint to the director-general, anti-corruption bureau (ACB), has alleged attempts to poach Congress MLAs and the independent lawmakers, who are supporting the Gehlot-led government.

“Attempts are being made to destabilise the government in Rajasthan on the lines of Karnataka and MP,” Joshi alleged.

Gehlot said that he would hold another round of meeting with the 107 Congress and 13 independent MLAs on Thursday.

The CM also targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging that the Upper House elections were postponed under pressure because the BJP could not poach an adequate number of MLAs in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

He blamed the saffron party for its lack of faith in democracy, as it has ensured the resignation of eight Congress MLAs in Gujarat since March, including three earlier this week.

Mukesh Pareek, BJP’s state spokesperson, refuted the allegations levelled by CM Gehlot against his party and asked the ruling Congress to give evidence of alleged poaching of its and independent lawmakers.

‘The Congress has failed to manage its own house. There is growing resentment in the party’s rank and file over its failed national leadership,” Pareek alleged.

New Delhi, Jun 11: Petrol and diesel prices on Thursday were hiked by 60 paise per litre each - the fifth straight daily increase in rates since oil PSUs ended an 82-day hiatus in rate revision.

Petrol price in Delhi was hiked to Rs 74 per litre from Rs 73.40 while diesel rates were increased to Rs 72.22 a litre from Rs 71.62, according to a price notification of state oil marketing companies.

Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending on the incidence of local sales tax or VAT.

This is the fifth daily increase in rates in a row since oil companies on Sunday restarted revising prices in line with costs, after ending an 82-day hiatus.

In five hikes, petrol price has gone up by Rs 2.74 per litre and diesel by Rs 2.83.