May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.
The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.
All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.
"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."
At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.
Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.
"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."
Desperate Times
Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.
A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.
The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.
The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.
Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.
The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.
Shattered Economy
The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.
It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.
"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."
Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.
And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.
"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."
Comments
May Allah grant him Jannatul Firdous. He was an ideal for many, Respected by both Muslims and Non-Muslims. Loss for Mangalore community, a peace bearer has passed away. Inna lillahi wa inna ilaihi raji'un.
Great personality. I knew Moulana Syed Yusuf Saheb since my college days in 1969 and I have attended many of his Friday Jumaa sermons (Qutbahs) at Kachi Meman Masjid in Bunder, Mangalore. He used keep a good relationships with youngsters and inspire and encourage them to carry out the noble deeds for the betterment of communities and the society.
May Allah forgive him and accept all his good deeds. May Allah bless him with the bounties of Jannatul Firdous. May Allah give sabr to the grieved family to bear the loss of their dear one.
Innaa Lillahi Wa Innaa Ilaihi Rajivoon. Heartfelt Condolences.
Inna lillahi wa inna ilihi rajiwoon . Alhamdulillah, I am fortunate enough to have met & benefited from both of you. May Almighty bless today's imams/moulana's with wisdom similar to that of Moulana Yusuf saheb.
Allah SWT please accept his service to islam, to mankind, may grant him magfirah and cause him to enter highest level of Jannah. Aameen.
May Allah reward my grandfather with Jannatul Firdaus!!
Alhumdulillah, he has done so much good in his life.
He was one of the most generous and pious people I've ever known.
May Allah give us the guidance like my grand father to follow the righteous path to practice n preach! Indeed he was is n insha Allah vl b a grt personality ! Very soft spoken very humble down to earth personality !! May Allah accept his good deeds his work n forgive his mistakes n save him from fitnah of barzaq n grant him peace in his abode n grant him the glad tidings of jannah !! Ameen !! We will miss our nana dearly
*Inna lillahi wa inna ilaihi raajioun*, may almighty allah bless late moulana syed yusuf saheb,
With jannathul firdouse, aameen. He was one of the rare islamic scholars, with rich bundle & store of knoweldge of deen and duniya, keeping a very low profile and non-controversial & a broad minded humanitarian. Indeed, in his death the muslims of mangalore / d.k.dist / udupi dist, in particular and others in general, are deprived of a high thinking and simple living scholar in this modern era. As holy quran says *kullu nafsin zaayikathul mouth*(every living soul has to taste death)., each & every one of us has to face & taste death, when our living term ends in this world. But in this joureny between life and death, we have to live with our noble living and leave this temporary world to the ever lasting eternal world, with the memory to be cherished with, by the living masses. May almighty allah give strength, patience and forebearance to the family members of late moulana syed yusuf saheb, to bear the bear the brunt of bereavement, aameen. May almighty allah guide & protect all of us, aameen.
Very true brother
Aameen.. absolutely true
Exactly.. absolutely true
Very well said.. absolutely true...
Inna lillahi wa Inna ilaihi raajioon. He certainly was a testament of not just an amazing Muslim but also an amazing human being. he was a man of complete integrity.. he was someone who did not have even an ounce of pride and was an extremely down to earth person.... I consider myself extremely fortunate to have known him so very well and to have learnt all the immense knowledge from him.. he has departed from this dunya but he will remain in our hearts perennially. May Allah grant him jannathul Firdous. Aameen
End of era. No Muslim youth who attended his sermons can go astray. We need scholars like him to educate and enlighten Muslim youth and prevent them from going astray. May allah accept all his deeds and reward him immensely.
يَا أَيَّتُهَا النَّفْسُ الْمُطْمَئِنَّةُ ارْجِعِي إِلَى رَبِّكِ رَاضِيَةً مَرْضِيَّةً فَادْخُلِي فِي عِبَادِي وَادْخُلِي جَنَّتِي
Moulana was great personality. Embodiment of simple living high thinking. Lived upto what he preached. Remained non controversial all his life. Very knowledgeable but extremely humble. His moderate and unique style of delivering khutbah impressed many,including me . He was taking keen interest in current affairs and concerned about global status of ummah. He always motivated me with his superlative appreciation and generous words. Always encourged me to deliver khutbas in his place , whenever I was in Mangalore. May Allah give him highest abode in Jannah
Innalillahi Wa Inna Ilahi Rajivoon. May Allah grant him magfirath and mashrat. I remember Moulavi Saab as a soft spoken, kind hearted,highly knowledable person but with down to earth approach. Moulavi Saab always make it a point to attend " Bearys Welfare Forum "- Abu Dhabi, arranged mass marriages at Mangalore ,and encouraged us to do more to the poor and needy in the society.
My usthad. The one who guided me and helped me to change my life. Inna lillahi va inna ilaihi rajivoon. May allah grant him one of the highest positions in jannah.
Very said. This is a loss not only for Muslim community, but also for all communities in Mangaluru. He was a true religious leader. May his soul rest in peace.
Innalillahi Wa Inna Ilaihi Rajiwoon.
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