Mangaluru witnesses another murder: Target Gang Ilyas on bail hacked to death

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Kannur, Mar 29: A non-resident Keralite (NRK)

under home quarantine here since he returned from Sharjah recently died on Sunday, officials said.

According to health authorities, Abdul Khader (65), a resident of Kannariparamba, was kept under home quarantine after he returned from abroad on March 21.

Police said the man had no symptoms of coronavirus but was under isolation as per Covid-19 protocol for persons returning from abroad and other states.

"The relatives of the deceased took him to hospital after seeing him unconscious in his room. However he died before reaching the hospital," police said.

Quoting medical college authorities, the Mayyil police said he died of cardiac arrest.

However, the health officials said they will test his blood sample to ascertain whether he was affected with novel coronavirus.

The body has been kept at the Kannur medical college and will be handed over to his kin only if the result of his blood test is negative, sources said.

Thiruvananthapuram, Jul 12: At least 66 children have ended their lives in Kerala since the Covid-19 lockdown began on March 25 with youngsters facing stress unable to bear the unprecedented situation where schools are shut and friends are out of reach to share their woes.

According to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, there has been an increasing instance of suicidal tendencies among children in the state due to various reasons, including parents scolding them over mobile phone use and failure to attend online classes.

This has prompted the government to launch a teleconsultation facility for children facing stress and also cautioning parents against hurting their sentiments while being concerned about welfare of their wards. It has also ordered a study into the issue. "Among the children an increasing instance of suicidal tendency is being witnessed which will become an extremely serious social issue.

Since March 25, when the national lockdown was imposed, 66 children, below 18 years of age, have ended their lives due to various reasons", Vijayan said. A mother scolding her child for not attending the ongoing online classes, or a parent questioning a child for downloading a sleazy video on the smartphone or the constant rift between the parents were among the reasons which triggered the suicidal tendency, he said on Saturday.

As the schools have not yet re-opened due to the lockdown, the children are unable to meet their friends and share their problems. Vijayan said though the parents were intervening keeping in mind their child's welfare, it was essential to ensure that the young minds were not hurt in the process. To helpthe children facing issues relating to mental pressures, 'Chiri'atele-counselling initiative has been started by the government under its Our Responsibility to Children Programme (ORC), a planned community intervention that connects with people between the age of 12-18 years. The state health department has also launched "Ottakalla Oppamundu" (You are not alone,we are with you) programmeto help children facing any kind of mental distress and to prevent the suicidal tendencies among them.

Health Minister K K Shailaja said under the psychosocial support assistance, her department has so far reached out to 68,814 children and 10,890 children have been given counselling. The changes in the behaviour of their children should be noted by the family members and if they find something amiss, the district psychosocial help desk should be informed, she said. A 15-member team of Students Police Cadets will be constituted in each of the 14 districts to help the children needing any assistance,police sources said. Education should not be a competition, but a means to gain knowledge, Vijayan said.

A society's future lies with the children and it is the duty of the society and the government to ensure their physical and mental well being. Taking a serious view of the situation, the state government has constituteda committee headed byFire and Rescue Services DGP R Sreelekha to conduct a study on child suicides in the state. The aim of the ORC was also to create a multi collaborative platform for government and professional agencies, parents and teachers to equip youth with appropriate know-how to face challenges, officials said.