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New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

New Delhi, Apr 9: The Delhi Police has traced Tablighi Jamaat leader Maulana Saad Kandhalvi, who has been on the run after an FIR was registered against him for organising a religious gathering last month despite restrictions to combat the coronavirus, sources said on Wednesday.

The cleric has been traced to Zakir Nagar in southeast Delhi, sources said.

His lawyer Tauseef Khan, however, said Saad is under self-quarantine and will join investigation after his quarantine period is over.

On March 31, Delhi Police's Crime Branch lodged an FIR against seven people, including the cleric, on a complaint by Station House Officer Nizamuddin for holding the congregation here allegedly in violation of the orders against large gathering and not maintaining social distancing to contain the spread of coronavirus.

A day later, the Delhi Police's Crime Branch wrote to Saad and others, seeking the details under Section 91 of the Code of Criminal Procedure. A second notice was also issued to him this week.

"Saad is currently under self-quarantine and will join investigation once the period of 14 days gets over," his advocate, Tauseef Khan, told PTI.

Saad's quarantine is expected to end next week.

His lawyer said a reply to the second notice will be given soon.

In an audio message last week, Saad said he was exercising self-quarantine after several hundreds who visited the Tablighi Jamaat's Nizamudddin markaz tested positive for coronavirus.

Visited by thousands last month, the Nizamudddin centre also turned out to be a hotspot for spread of coronavirus not only in national capital and country.

According to the FIR, the Delhi Police contacted the centre on March 21 and reminded them of the government order that prohibited any political or religious gathering of more than 50 people.

However, no one paid any heed to the police's direction, it said. Moreover, an audio recording purportedly of Saad was found in circulation on WhatsApp on March 21, in which he was heard asking his followers to defy the lockdown and social distancing and to attend the religious gathering of the Markaz.

On March 24, the government ordered 21-day nationwide lockdown and restricted any social, political or religious gathering.

The same day a meeting was held at Hazarat Nizamuddin police station between SHO and officer bearers of the centre.

The meeting was attended by Saad, Mohammad Ashraf, Mohammad Salman, Yunus, Mursaleen Saifi, Jishan and Mufti Shehzad and they were informed about lockdown orders.

So far, several hundred cases of COVID-19 cases across the country have been found to be linked to the Tablighi Jamaat congregation held in Delhi last month.

More than 25,500 Tablighi members and their contacts have been quarantined in the country after the Centre and the state governments conducted a "mega operation" to identify them.

At least 9,000 people participated in the religious congregation in Nizamuddin. Later, many of the attendees travelled to various parts of the country.