Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.
Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.
"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.
A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.
The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.
India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.
The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.
The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.
India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.
'RIDING THE TIGER'
Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.
This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.
A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.
One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.
"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.
McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.
Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.
Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.
"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.
''Our dream is a cashless society, but we can definitely take the first step towards a less-cash society", said PM. He said in the wake of the demonetization drive there has been 300 per cent increase in the use of Rupay card since people started using it.
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If anyone have good suggestion to give will appreciate, otherwise get off u ass.
Khad asa bod na ..... wage earners will have to visit the bank Atm daily to collect yesterdays wages.... provided the owner transfers the money in time
Yes it will Cash less... but also with people less..
Tax is like 'Herding', the way a shepherd herds the animals to reach the destination, Govt. is doing the same by herding the people towards banking cartels. This is why they created 'cash crunch' and issuing Rs.2000 note first instead of Rs.500 is the reason for it. There is a greater agenda that is happening all over the world, under the guidance of UN, IMF and World Bank, in order to bring humanity under one umbrella, so that every economic activities can be controlled and monitored by \few\" who wants to rule the world and bring about one world government, one religion, one culture, one money (digital), one economic system and one civil society. In order to achieve this, they do not care if people face problems, they have to do this some how. As such digital money is just some digital pulses, they can easily manipulate the world through this. Already PM yesterday told us that he did the demonetization \"on the recommendation of RBI\". And the RBI gets recommendation from IMF and World Bank. Our Prophet (s.a.w.s) about Dajjal and his trials, which will be greatest trials that humanity will undergo. Dajjal will emerge hoping people development s and prosper, our prophet (s.a.w.s) told us that his heaven is hell and his hell is actually heaven. Dajjal yet to emerge among our midst, but the process to make his rule effective world over, is already happening in our midst. Dajjal sees with only one eye, i.e., this Dunia and other eye is completely shut, the eye of Akhira. Most of the education, economic , political systems in our midst have already removed the words religion and God. Only one thing I have to say during these trials, is to keep our faith in tact."
Mr. Modiji, we have 30-40% illiterates.....how you are going to convince and help them to use bank debit and credit cards....
This is a good idea, this will stop corruption, no doubt at all.....
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