Asian arrivals helping set new Umrah record

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Dubai, Jun 9: Dubai's Emirates airline has begun laying off employees to reduce cost and save cash as the carrier looks to rightsize its workforce.

"We at Emirates have been doing everything possible to retain the talented people that make up our workforce for as long as we can. However, given the significant impact that the pandemic has had on our business, we simply cannot sustain excess resources and have to rightsize our workforce in line with our reduced operations. After reviewing all scenarios and options, we deeply regret that we have to let some of our people go," the spokesperson said in the statement.

Citing sources, Reuters and Bloomberg earlier reported that a majority of those being made redundant are cabin crew workers as well as a minority of its engineers and pilots, including those flew the Airbus A380.

"This was a very difficult decision and not one that we took lightly. The company is doing everything possible to protect the workforce wherever we can. Where we are forced to take tough decisions we will treat people with fairness and respect. We will work with impacted employees to provide them with all possible support," said the statement.

The spokesperson, however, didn't disclose how many employees are being made redundant in this latest round of rightsizing the workforce.

Emirates on Sunday confirmed that it extended the period of reduced pay for its staff for another three months till September. It had previously reduced basic wages by 25 to 50 per cent for three months from April, with junior employees exempted.

The airline had employed around 60,000 people at the end of its 2019-20 financial year.

Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, said the announced job cuts at Emirates will likely not be the last given the unprecedented damage that Covid-19 has had not just on air travel, but on the entire aviation industry as a whole.

"Emirates' massive international network means that job reductions were always a last resort option as the company staves off cash burn and expenses at a time when revenues are dried up. While Emirates SkyCargo is enjoying a resurgence in activities, the reality is that this income will never offset the lost money from passenger operations," he added.

"Whilst some salary reduction schemes have prevented bigger job cuts for now, the absence of a cure or medicinal suppressant of Covid-19 means that air travel is unlikely to even reach pre-9/11 levels within 3-5 years, let alone pre-Covid-19 levels in that same time period. For that reason, Emirates' reduction in headcount is necessary to stay competitive, agile and be ready for when air travel can resume with a degree of normalcy that we have been accustomed to for decades," said Ahmad.

Riyadh, May 26: The authorities in Saudi Arabia have decided to ease some restrictions put in place over coronavirus fears, allowing movement and resumption of some economic and commercial activities, Saudi Press Agency reported early Tuesday citing an official source at the Interior Ministry.

The move also allows restarting of domestic flights, opening of mosques, restaurants and cafes and work attendance, however, the temporary suspension of Umrah pilgrimage remains in force.

The easing of restrictions will be carried out in a phased manner, with the first phase beginning on Thursday (May 28) and ending on May 30.

In the first phase, the movement within and between all regions of the Kingdom in private cars will be allowed from 6 a.m. to 3 p.m. except in Makkah. Economic and commercial activities will resume in retail and wholesale shops and malls but beauty salons, barber shops, sports clubs, health clubs, entertainment centers and cinemas will continue to remain shut due to social distancing concerns.

In the second phase, which begins on May 31 and ends on June 20, the movement is allowed from 6 a.m. and 8 p.m. in all areas of the Kingdom, except in Makkah. All congregational prayers, including Friday prayers, will resume in all mosques across the Kingdom except in Makkah.

The suspension of workplace attendance will end, allowing all employees in ministries, government entities and private sector companies to return to working from their offices provided that they follow strict precautionary guidelines.

The suspension on travel between regions in the Kingdom using various transport methods will no longer be in place. Airlines will be allowed to operate domestic flights if they adhere to precautionary measures set by the civil aviation authority and the Ministry of Health. The suspension of international flights, will, however, continue until further notice.

Restaurants and cafes serving food and beverages can reopen, however, beauty salons, barber shops, sports clubs, health clubs, entertainment centers and cinemas will be barred from reopening in the second phase. The ban on social gatherings of more than fifty people, such as weddings and funerals will also continue to remain in force.

In the third phase commencing on June 21, the Kingdom will return to "normal" conditions as it was before the coronavirus lockdown measures were implemented.

Meanwhile in Makkah, the first phase measures will be implemented between May 31 to June 20 and the second phase will begin on May 21. Friday prayers and all congregational prayers will continue to be held in the Grand Mosque, only to be attended by Imams and the employees.