Dubai oil and Asia’s reaction to Syria

Beirut, Apr 5: The novel coronavirus has put global trade on hold, placed half of the world population in confinement and has the potential to topple governments and reshape diplomatic relations.

The United Nations has appealed for ceasefires in all the major conflicts rocking the planet, with its chief Antonio Guterres on Friday warning "the worst is yet to come". But it remains unclear what the pandemic's impact will be on the multiple wars roiling the Middle East.

Here is an overview of the impact so far on the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq:

The COVID-19 outbreak turned into a pandemic just as a ceasefire reached by the two main foreign power brokers in Syria's nine-year-old war -- Russia and Turkey -- was taking effect.

The three million people living in the ceasefire zone, in the country's northwestern region of Idlib, had little hope the deal would hold.

Yet fears the coronavirus could spread like wildfire across the devastated country appear to have given the truce an extended lease of life.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the month of March saw the lowest civilian death toll since the conflict started in 2011, with 103 deaths.

The ability of the multiple administrations in Syria -- the Damascus government, the autonomous Kurdish administration in the northeast and the jihadist-led alliance that runs Idlib -- to manage the coronavirus threat is key to their credibility.

"This epidemic is a way for Damascus to show that the Syrian state is efficient and all territories should be returned under its governance," analyst Fabrice Balanche said.

However the pandemic and the global mobilisation it requires could precipitate the departure of US-led troops from Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

This in turn could create a vacuum in which the Islamic State jihadist group, still reeling from the demise of its "caliphate" a year ago, could seek to step up its attacks.

The Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels initially responded positively to the UN appeal for a ceasefire, as did neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which leads a military coalition in support of the government.

That rare glimmer of hope in the five-year-old conflict was short-lived however and last week Saudi air defences intercepted ballistic missiles over Riyadh and a border city fired by the Iran-backed rebels.

The Saudi-led coalition retaliated by striking Huthi targets in the rebel-held capital Sanaa on Monday.

Talks have repeatedly faltered but the UN envoy Martin Griffiths is holding daily consultations in a bid to clinch a nationwide ceasefire.

More flare-ups in Yemen could compound a humanitarian crisis often described as the worst in the world and invite a coronavirus outbreak of catastrophic proportions.

In a country where the health infrastructure has collapsed, where water is a rare commodity and where 24 million people require humanitarian assistance, the population fears being wiped out if a ceasefire doesn't allow for adequate aid.

"People will end up dying on the streets, bodies will be rotting in the open," said Mohammed Omar, a taxi driver in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida.

Much like Yemen, the main protagonists in the Libyan conflict initially welcomed the UN ceasefire call but swiftly resumed hostilities.

Fierce fighting has rocked the south of the capital Tripoli in recent days, suggesting the risk of a major coronavirus outbreak is not enough to make guns fall silent.

Turkey has recently played a key role in the conflict, throwing its weight behind the UN-recognised Government of National Accord.

Fabrice Balanche predicted that accelerated Western disengagement from Middle East conflicts could limit Turkish support to the GNA.

That could eventually favour forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar, who launched an assault on Tripoli one year ago and has the backing of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Western countries have been hit hardest by the pandemic, which could prompt them to divert both military resources and peace-brokering capacity from foreign conflicts.

A report by the International Crisis Group said European officials had reported that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya were no longer receiving high-level attention due to the pandemic.

Iraq is no longer gripped by fully-fledged conflict but it remains vulnerable to an IS resurgence in some regions and its two main foreign backers are at each other's throats.

Iran and the United States are two of the countries most affected by the coronavirus but there has been no sign of any let-up in their battle for influence that has largely played out on Iraqi soil.

With most non-US troops in the coalition now gone and some bases evacuated, American personnel are now regrouped in a handful of locations in Iraq.

Washington has deployed Patriot air defence missiles, prompting fears of a fresh escalation with Tehran, whose proxies it blames for a spate of rocket attacks on bases housing US troops.

Dubai, May 21: Around 10,000 Iranian health workers have been infected with the new coronavirus, the semi-official ILNA news agency quoted a deputy health minister as saying on Thursday.

Health services are stretched thin in Iran, the Middle East country hardest hit by the respiratory pandemic, with 7,249 deaths and a total of 129,341 infections. The Health Ministry said in April that over 100 health workers had died of COVID-19.

No more details on infections among health workers were immediately available.

Earlier on Thursday, Health Minister Saeed Namaki appealed to Iranians to avoid travelling during the Eid al-Fitr religious holiday later this month to avoid the risk of a new surge of coronavirus infections, state TV reported.

Iranians often travel to different cities around the country to mark the end of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan, something Namaki said could lead to a disregard of social distancing rules and a fresh outbreak of COVID-19.

"I am urging you not to travel during the Eid. Definitely, such trips mean new cases of infection...People should not travel to and from those high-risk red areas," Namaki was quoted by state television as saying.

"Some 90% of the population in many areas has not yet contracted the disease. In the case of a new outbreak, it will be very difficult for me and my colleagues to control it."

A report by parliament's research centre suggested that the actual tally of infections and deaths in Iran might be almost twice that announced by the health ministry.

However, worried that measures to limit public activities could wreck an economy which has already been battered by U.S. sanctions, the government has been easing most restrictions on normal life in late April.

Infected cases have been on a rising trajectory for the past two weeks. However, President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday that Iran was close to curbing the outbreak.

Feb 5: US President Donald Trump delivered his third State of the Union address on Tuesday, the eve of his expected impeachment acquittal in the United States Senate.

The mood in the House of Representatives reflected the divisions running across the country. Republicans cheered as Trump was introduced, with some chanting "four more years" while Democrats stood silently.

On the foreign policy front, Trump said the US is "working to end America's wars in the Middle East".

He boasted about his decision to order the killing of top Iranian Commander Qassem Soliemani. That decision escalated tensions between the US and Iran, with many fearing an outright war.

Iran retaliated by attacking two Iraqi military bases housing US troops. After Trump initially said no troops were injured, the Defense Department announced dozens of US soldiers had been diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries.

Trump also reiterated his vow to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan. When he plans to do that, however, remains unclear.

US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad told Afghan President Ashraf Ghani earlier this week that there has not been any significant progress in his talks with the Taliban. Khalilzad said he was hopeful of reaching an understanding with the group on reduction of hostilities, but did not offer any timeframe.

Trump also touted his newly-unveiled Middle East plan, which has been vehemently rejected by Palestinians.

And he received loud applause after reminding the country that ISIL (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed last year in a US military operation in Syria.

"Today, the ISIS territorial caliphate has been 100 percent destroyed, and the founder and leader of ISIS - the bloodthirsty killer Al Baghdadi - is dead!" Trump said.

Economy

Trump spent much of his speech highlighting the economy's strength, including low unemployment, stressing how it has helped blue-collar workers and the middle class, though the period of growth began under his predecessor, Barack Obama.

"In just three short years, we have shattered the mentality of American decline and we have rejected the downsizing of America's destiny. We are moving forward at a pace that was unimaginable just a short time ago, and we are never going back!" Trump declared.

And what Trump calls an unprecedented boom is, by many measures, not all that different from the solid economy he inherited from Obama. Economic growth was 2.3 percent in 2019, matching the average pace since the Great Recession ended a decade ago in the first year of Obama's eight-year presidency.

Trump stressed the new trade agreements he has negotiated, including his phase-one deal with China and the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement he signed last month.

Throughout his presidency, Trump has frequently touted his stewardship of the US economy. As recently as two weeks ago, he claimed it was in "a rather dismal state" until he and his administration turned it into a "roaring geyser of opportunity".

But the numbers do not support the "geyser" narrative. There are signs the record US economic expansion - now in its 11th year - is getting long in the tooth.

Job creation is slowing. And the US economy's modest 2.3 percent growth was well short of the 3 percent growth Trump had predicted following a $1.5 trillion tax cut package he and his fellow Republicans pushed through Congress in 2017.

Trump's trade war with China weighed on US manufacturing last year as businesses held back on investment. And while factory activity bounced back in January amid the signing of a phase-one trade deal between Washington and Beijing, US tariffs still remain in place on some $360bn of Chinese goods.

The coronavirus outbreak and the ongoing troubles for Boeing surrounding the 737 MAX could also present headwinds to growth, analysts say.

Awkward moment at awkward time

One of the big questions of the night was whether Trump would directly mention impeachment. He chose to stay away. The House impeached the president at the end of last year for abuse of power related to his dealings with Ukraine and obstruction of Congress for refusing to participate in the impeachment inquiry.

The Senate started its trial more than two weeks ago, and a final vote is scheduled for 4pm local time (21GMT) on Wednesday.

Trump shared an awkward moment with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who kicked off the House's impeachment inquiry in September following a whistle-blower complaint that centred on Trump's efforts to get Ukraine to launch investigations into the president's political rival.

At the start of Trump's speech on Tuesday night, it appeared Pelosi went to shake the president's hand, a gesture amid the impeachment proceedings.

The president was presenting folios to Pelosi and Vice President Mike Pence as he arrived for the evening speech when it appears she reached for the shake. At the same time, Trump turned away from her to face the audience of lawmakers gathered for the annual address.

Pelosi gave a look.

Later on Twitter, Pelosi tweeted that "Democrats will never stop extending the hand of friendship to get the job done #ForThePeople. We will work to find common ground where we can, but will stand our ground where we cannot".

After the address was over, Pelosi ripped up her copy of the speech - a move the White House criticised.

Trump is only the third president to be impeached. He has denied any wrongdoing.

While some Republicans have acknowledged Trump did something wrong, they've argued that it didn't amount to an impeachable offence. Trump is headed towards an all but certain acquittal on Wednesday in the Republican-led Senate.

Trump appeals to base

As expected, Trump also dedicated a section to "American values", discussing efforts to protect "religious liberties" and limit access to abortion as he continues to court the evangelical and conservative Christian voters who form a crucial part of his base.

He attacked the Democrats over their healthcare plans, labelling them "socialist".

He brought up his signature campaign issue - immigration, at times making untrue or misleading statements.

"Before I came into office, if you showed up illegally on our southern border and were arrested, you were simply released and allowed into our country, never to be seen again," Trump falsely. "My administration has ended catch-and-release. If you come illegally, you will now be promptly removed."

But under previous administrations, Mexicans were quickly returned back over the US-Mexico border, while others were held in detention until they were deported. Some migrants from other countries were released into the interior of the US to wait out their immigration cases.

And despite Trump's claims that all irregular migrants are now "promptly" removed, there is a one million immigration court case backlog, which means many migrants wait up to three years before a court hearing before a judge who will determine whether someone is deported. After a judge rules a migrant deported, travel papers must be obtained, which often leads to further delays.

As for ending the so-called "catch and release" policy, Trump actually expanded that policy last year during a surge in migrants, releasing thousands of migrants who flooded shelters along the border. The surge has since passed, so fewer people are being held and fewer would need to be released. But an effort by immigration officials to detain children indefinitely was blocked by a judge, so children are still released into the country.

In a gesture that left nearly everyone - including its recipient - looking dumbfounded, Trump announced he was giving right-wing radio host Rush Limbaugh the nation's highest civilian honour.

Limbaugh, who announced this week that he had advanced lung cancer, appeared stunned, his jaw visibly dropping as Trump made the announcement. Others sat in silence as first lady Melania Trump draped the medal around his neck on the spot.

"Thank you for your decades of tireless devotion to our country," Trump told Limbaugh, who often promotes conspiracy theories on his radio show.

Boycott, walkouts

At least 10 Democratic lawmakers, including some who have been attacked by the president, boycotted the address in a sign of protests.

"After much deliberation, I have decided that I will not use my presence at a state ceremony to normalise Trump's lawless conduct & subversion of the Constitution," Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in a series of tweets announcing her decision.

Ocasio-Cortez, as well as Representative Ayanna Pressley, who also boycotted, were the subjects of racist attacks by the president last year that resulted in the House voting to condemned his comments, telling the pair and two other congresswoman of colour - Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib - to "go back" to their countries. All four are US citizens.

Omar and Rashida Tlaib, the first two Muslim women in Congress, attended the address, wearing traditional Palestinian and Somali clothing.

"This is what America looks like," Omar tweeted.

Tlaib, along with some other Democratic representatives said they walked out of Trump's speech, calling it "shameless".

Dozens of other congresswomen wore white, representing the colour of women suffragettes.

Other Democrats wore red, white and blue-striped lapel pins to highlight climate change, saying Trump has rolled back environmental safeguards and given free rein to polluters.

Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer delivered her party's official response and drew a contrast between actions taken by Democrats and the president's rhetoric.

"It doesn't matter what the president says about the stock market," Whitmer said. "What matters is that millions of people struggle to get by or don't have enough money at the end of the month after paying for transportation, student loans, or prescription drugs."