No decision on Qatar World Cup before next year

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Apr 25: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Friday spoke to his counterparts from Qatar, the UAE, Niger, Palestine and Czech Republic and held discussions around the coronavirus infection.

In conversation with Qatar Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Jaishankar discussed their experience of dealing with coronavirus infection and also thanked him for taking care of the Indian community.

"A cordial conversation with FM @MBA_AlThani_ of #Qatar. Discussed our #coronavirus experiences. Thanked him for taking care of the Indian community. Such challenging times will only further strengthen our friendship," he said in a tweet.

Jaishankar also spoke to United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed.

"Pandemics further highlight the need for international cooperation. Few better examples than our relationship with #UAE. Applaud the generosity of spirit and clarity of policy that has characterised its approach. Thank HH @ABZayed for the warm conversation today," he said in another tweet.

Jaishankar also spoke to Niger Foreign Minister Kalla Ankourao and assured him of India's support in meeting the coronavirus challenge, including medicines.

"Just spoke with FM @kallaankourao of #Niger. Assured him of India's support in meeting the #coronavirus challenge, including medicines. Discussed its global implications in the context of the United Nations," he tweeted.

Jaishankar also discussed the coronavirus situation with Palestine Foreign Minister Riad Al Malki. "Welcomed speaking with FM Riad Al Malki of #Palestine. Discussed the #coronavirus situation. Assured him of Indian medical assistance," he said in a tweet.

He also exchanged experiences on coronavirus response with Czech Foreign Minister Tomas Petricek.

The minister said the two leaders agreed that there are valuable lessons for international cooperation.

"Glad to catch up with FM @TPetricek of #CzechRepublic. Exchanged our experiences on #coronavirus response. Agreed that there are valuable lessons for international cooperation. Look forward to keeping in touch," he said in a tweet.

Abu Dhabi, May 5: The overall real GDP (gross domestic product) of the United Arab Emirates is estimated to have grown by 1.7 percent in 2019, the country’s central bank said in a statement on Monday carried by WAM.

"The UAE hydrocarbon sector is estimated to have exhibited a growth of 3.4 percent in 2019. However, non-oil activities advanced at a softer pace growing by 1.0 percent. As a result, overall real GDP is estimated by FCSA (Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority) to have grown by 1.7 percent in 2019," said the financial regulator in its Annual Report 2019.

"The spread of COVID-19 is expected to impact trade and supply chain movements, coupled with travel restrictions which paves way for high volatility in capital markets and commodity prices. While the outbreak is expected to negatively affect the global and domestic economies, it is still early to gauge the scale of the economic fallout," the report added.

The report noted that the higher hydrocarbon output, as well as growth in non-hydrocarbon economic activity, supported the pace of the country's overall economic growth in 2019.

"Meanwhile, the fading effect of VAT, the appreciating Dirham, lower energy prices and decline in rents pushed inflation in negative territory. However, the employment rate registered a steady rebound. Looking ahead, the economic outlook for 2020 remains uncertain owing to the COVID-19 outbreak," the report elaborated.