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Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Ankara, Apr 2: Saudi Arabia on Thursday declared a 24-hour lockdown in all parts of Makkah and Medina cities as part of measures to stem the spread of the coronavirus.

"The 24-hour curfew will be imposed in all parts of the cities of Makkah and Medina, with a ban on entry and exit from both cities," the Saudi Interior Ministry said on Twitter.

The lockdown starts from Thursday “until further notice.”

All commercial activities inside the residential neighborhoods of the two cities were also prohibited, except for pharmacies, food products stores, gas stations and banking services, the ministry said.

After first appearing in Wuhan, China last December, the virus has spread to at least 180 countries and regions, according to U.S.-based Johns Hopkins University.

Its data shows the number of confirmed cases worldwide have surpassed 962,900, with the death toll over 49,100 and more than 202,700 recoveries.

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May 21: Mosques across the UAE will remain closed during Eid Al Fitr, a top official has said. The Takbeer, which is chanted before the special prayers performed on Eid, will be broadcast from mosques 10 minutes before the prayer time.

During the virtual press briefing held on Wednesday, Dr Farida Al Hosani, official spokesperson of the UAE health sector, reminded citizens and expats about the importance of adhering to the safety measures as laid out by the authorities.

Contact tracing process

"Before we began to use Al Hosn app to trace the contacts of Covid-19 cases, the tracking process used to take more than 48 hours. It also depended on the memory and honesty of people. The app is an AI-enabled methodological way to trace individuals who came in contact with Covid-19 cases so that they are isolated. It has proven to be an efficient way to stop the spread of the coronavirus," Dr Farida said.

Install the app

She called on all the public to install the app on their smart phones. "The success of the tracing system via Al Hosn app relies on its use. We hope 50 to 70 per cent of people in the UAE instal and use the app in an effective way."

No sermon

Sheikh Abdul Rahman Al Shamsi, Spokesperson for the General Authority of Islamic Affairs and Endowments, said there will be no sermon for the Eid prayers.

He called on everyone to welcome Eid with joy and positivity and to stay connected with their loved ones via social media.

Mass testing

Dr Amna Al Dahhak Al Shamsi, the official spokesperson of the UAE Government, said mass testing continues across the country.

She stressed on the importance of adhering to precautionary measures and cooperating with the authorities.