Minor hit by car in UP minister's fleet, dies; CM announces Rs 5L ex gratia

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

New Delhi, Apr 14: With 1,211 fresh cases of coronavirus reported in the last 24 hours, the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country has reached 10,363 including 339 deaths, said Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary, Health and Family Welfare, here on Tuesday.

As many as 1,036 people have recovered from the disease so far, said Aggarwal during the daily media briefing on the coronavirus. "In one day, 179 people were diagnosed and found cured," he added.

"A total of 10,363 confirmed cases have been reported in India including 339 deaths and 1,036 people, who were COVID-19 positive have recovered. Out of the total deaths, 31 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours," said Aggarwal.

Aggarwal said that an evaluation of each district and city will be done till April 20.

"An evaluation of each district and city will be done till April 20 in which it will be evaluated what measures did that authorities take in these cities and districts to combat COVID-19," he said.

"Based on the results of this litmus test approach, permission will be granted for some selective activities to those districts and cities which controlled the situation effectively. Detailed guidelines will be issued soon," he added.