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New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

New Delhi, May 15: The World Bank on Friday approved $1 billion 'Accelerating India's COVID-19 Social Protection Response Program' to support the country's efforts for providing social assistance to the poor and vulnerable households, severely impacted by the pandemic.

This takes the total commitment from the World Bank towards emergency COVID-19 response in India to $2 billion.

A $1 billion support was announced last month to support India's health sector.

The response to the COVID-19 pandemic around the world has required governments around the world to introduce social distancing and lockdowns in unprecedented ways, said Junaid Ahmad, World Bank Country Director in India in a webinar interaction with the media.

These measures, intended to contain the spread of the virus have, however, impacted economies and jobs – especially in the informal sector. India with the world's largest lockdown has not been an exception to this trend, he said.

Of the $1 billion commitment, $550 million will be financed by a credit from the International Development Association (IDA) – the World Bank's concessionary lending arm and $200 million will be a loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), with a final maturity of 18.5 years including a grace period of five years.

The remaining USD 250 million will be made available after June 30, 2020.

New Delhi, Jul 19: Blaming the BJP for the political drama in Rajasthan, senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh on Sunday asked Sachin Pilot not to leave the grand old party.

In an interview to news agency, the former Madhya Pradesh chief minister said Pilot should not follow Jyotiraditya Scindia into the BJP, as he has bright future in Congress.

His remarks follow Pilot's open rebellion against the Ashok Gehlot government, which has been on shaky ground with at least 18 legislators backing the rebel leader.

Pilot was sacked as Rajasthan deputy chief minister and the state Congress chief recently and the Congress has accused the BJP of making efforts to topple the Gehlot-led government by indulging in horse-trading.

"The BJP is behind the crisis in Rajasthan," Singh said.

The Congress veteran said he tried to call Pilot but his calls and text messages went unanswered.

"Age is on your side. Ashok (Gehlot) may have offended you, but all such issues are best resolved amicably. Dont make the mistake that Scindia made. BJP is unreliable. Nobody who joined it from any other party has succeeded there," Singh said.

He said this is the first time that Pilot hasn't responded to him.

"Sachin is like my son. He respects me and I also like him. I called him three-four times and also texted him. He didn't revert. He used to respond immediately earlier," he said.

"It is good to be ambitious. How can one move forward without having ambitions, but along with ambition, one must also have commitment to your organisation, ideology and the nation," Singh said.

For latest updates on the Rajathan Political Crisis, click here

"I heard that he (Pilot) may form a new party. But what is the need for it. Has Congress not given him anything? He was made an MP at 26, a Union minister at 32, the state Congress president at 34 and deputy chief minister at 38. What else does he want? Time is on his side," Singh said.

If Pilot had any issue, then as the state party unit president, he should have called a meeting and discussed the matter, he said. Pilot could have involved Congress national general secretary and Rajasthan in-charge Avinash Pande in talks with Gehlot to resolve differences, he added.

"If you have faith in your legislators, why have you have confined 18-19 of them in ITC Grand hotel at Manesar in Haryana," Singh said.

This is the same hotel where the BJP kept MLAs from Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh (during political dramas in those states), he said.

Pilot should forget whatever has happened, come back and sit across the table to discuss how Congress could be strengthened, he said