Modi govt appoints Arnab Goswami, Ram Bahadur, 2 other saffronists as members of NMML

New Delhi, Apr 21: The historic rout in oil markets that sent US crude prices plummeting to as much as minus USD 40 a barrel is unlikely to translate into any big reduction in petrol and diesel prices in India as domestic pricing is based on different benchmark, and refineries are already filled up to brim and cannot buy US crude just yet.

With storage capacity already overflowing amid coronavirus-induced demand collapse, traders rushed to to get rid of unwanted stocks triggering the collapse of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC) Chairman Sanjiv Singh said the collapse was triggered by traders unable to take deliveries of crude they had previously booked because of a demand collapse. And so they paid the seller to keep oil in their storage.

"If you look at June futures, it is trading in positive territory... around USD 20 per barrel," he said.

Low oil prices may seem good in short-term but in the long run it will hurt the oil economy as producers will have no surplus to invest in exploration and production which will lead to a drop in production, he said.

He did not comment on retail fuel prices that have been static since March 16.

Oil companies have not changed rates despite a fall in international prices as they first adjusted them against the increase that was warranted from a Rs 3 per litre hike in excise duty and close to Re 1 per litre additional cost of switching over to cleaner BS-VI grade fuel from April 1.

Petrol in Delhi is priced at Rs 69.59 a litre and diesel comes for Rs 62.29 per litre.

"The negative price has no direct impact on India or Indian oil prices, as this has taken place due to crude oil produced and traded within the US. India's prices are driven partly by another benchmark, the Brent, which is still trading at USD 25/barrel. Therefore, the retail price of fuels in India are unlikely to fall," said Amit Bhandari, Fellow, Energy and Environment Studies, Gateway House.

Also, Indian refineries are already overflowing as fuel demand has evaporated due to the unprecedented nationwide lockdown imposed to curb spread of COVID-19. So, they can't rush to buy US crude.

The refineries have already cut operating rate to half because the fuel they produce has not been sold yet.

India imports 4 million barrels/day (1.4 billion barrels/year) of oil. The country has been benefitting from the falling prices of oil for the last five years, when oil dropped from a peak of USD 110/barrel to USD 50-60/barrel last year, enabling India to invest in public service programmes.

"However, the additional USD 30 fall of this week is good for India - but there is also a downside. If oil prices are too low, the economies of oil-rich gulf countries will be hurt, threatening the job prospects of the 8 million Indians working in the Gulf countries. India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances due to these workers – very low oil prices will hurt this cash stream," Bhandari said.

He said the negative price of oil shows how much oil oversupply exists in international markets today. "Global oil consumption has fallen due to the COVID-19 pandemic that traders are willing to pay customers to get rid of the barrels they can't store. The world does not have enough storage capacity, and dumping the oil is an environmental crime."

The first half of April saw Brent crude oil prices plummet 63.6 per cent to USD 26.9 per barrel. Prices of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American oil, had also fallen similarly by 63.1 per cent.

But on April 20, WTI prices turned rapidly negative because traders on the Nymex exchange rushed to offload their May futures positions a day before expiry of contracts (on April 21).

Such WTI futures are traded on the Nymex exchange with contracts settled in physical crude oil. Problem is, those who had gone long are unable to find storage facilities for the oil and had to liquidate their contracts before expiry. This caused the plunge in WTI prices.

Contrast to this, June WTI Nymex futures prices is hovering around USD 21, while Brent for June delivery is at USD 25.

Miren Lodha, Director, CRISIL Research said the demand for crude oil was declining already because of economic slowdown when the COVID-19 pandemic-driven lockdowns crushed it further.

Consequently, oil demand is expected to contract by 8-10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2020 assuming demand recovery begins from the third quarter of the year, he said, adding if recovery doesn't happen by then, further demand destruction could occur.

On the supply side, producers reining in output following a strategic deal between OPEC members, Russia and the US.

Under this agreement, OPEC+ would reduce oil production by 9.7 mbpd for May and June, but gradually ease the curb to 7.7 mbpd between July and December 2020, and to 5.8 mbpd till April 2022 to stabilise prices.

"This is expected to reduce some surplus in the market by the end of 2020," Lodha said.

Crude oil demand is expected to decline by over 20 mbpd in April alone. Typically, monthly global demand is about 100 mbpd. Given this scenario, supply curbs would have limited influence.

Consequently, Brent oil prices is expected to be in the USD 25-30 range for the second quarter while increasing marginally in the last 2 quarters of 2020.

"The gigantic inventory build-ups and lack of storage facilities would also put pressure on prices," he said, adding overall Brent could average USD 30-35 in 2020, with a strong downward bias.

New Delhi, May 11: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday chaired a fresh round of consultation with chief ministers on ways to strengthen the COVID-19 containment strategy and stepping up of economic activities in a calibrated manner as the 54-day nationwide lockdown nears an end.

Large-scale movement of migrant workers from urban to rural India and the problems their return to home states may cause in restarting the economy will also be among the focus areas during the fifth virtual interaction between the prime minister and chief ministers since the outbreak of the deadly virus in the country.

There will be an effort to ensure that all participating chief ministers get an opportunity to air their views during the interaction, as some of the CMs had complaint that they were not allowed to put forth their views during the last interaction on April 27.

At a meeting on Sunday with Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, state chief secretaries told him that "while protection is required from COVID-19, economic activities also need to be stepped up in a calibrated manner", according to an official statement.       

With thousands of migrant workers taking special trains to go back to their home states, the restarting of industrial activities will prove to be a challenge for states though several relaxations have been made in labour laws to increase factory output.    

The meet is also likely to discuss efforts to convert 'red' zones with high COVID-19 case load into 'orange' or 'green' zones.       The prime minister interacted with the chief ministers last on April 27. Days after the meeting, the central government had extended the lockdown by two more weeks till May 17 to arrest the spread of the virus, but gave several relaxations in economic activities and movement of people.

The nationwide lockdown has been in force since March 25 to contain the spread of the virus, which has killed more than 2200 people, and afflicted more than 67,000 in the country.

New Delhi, Jan 28: Stepping up attack on Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday dared the AAP chief to visit the anti-CAA protest site at Shaheen Bagh so that the people of Delhi can decide whom to vote for in the assembly election.

Addressing a rally in Rithala in northwest Delhi, Shah said Kejriwal and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi were against the construction of Ram temple, the scrapping of provisions of Article 370 and not bothered about the country's image and soldiers.

The opposition fears that they will upset their vote bank, he said and asked, "Are you their vote bank? Where is their vote bank?" To this, the crowd replied, "Shaheen Bagh".

The BJP leader claimed that the Delhi Police has booked Sharjeel Imam, a JNU student, on the charge of sedition for his comment of "trying to cut chicken's neck" and breaking the North East from the rest of the country.

"I want to ask Kejriwal whether he is in favour of apprehending Sharjeel Imam or not? Whether you are with the people of Shaheen Bagh or not, please tell the people of Delhi," Shah said.

Imam was one of the initial organisers of the Shaheen Bagh protest.

Hitting back at the BJP, Kejriwal alleged that the saffron party does not want to open the Shaheen Bagh stretch of the Kalindi Kunj road as it is doing "dirty politics" over it.

He said law and order in the national capital lies entirely with the Centre and "if they are saying that they need permission from me, I am giving them permission, open the road in one hour".

"I can give it to you in writing, the BJP does not want to open the route in Shaheen Bagh. The Shaheen Bagh route will remain closed till February 8 (election day) and it will open February 9," Kejriwal told reporters.

Calling Kejriwal a member of the 'tukde tukde' gang, a term used by the BJP to attack groups it accuses of working to promote violent leftists and separatism, Shah sought to return fire and said the protesters of Shaheen Bagh will not listen to his party.

"They will not listen to us. You people (AAP leaders) say that you are with Shaheen Bagh, if you have the guts then go and sit with them and let Delhi decide," Shah said.

At another election rally in Janakpuri, Shah accused Gandhi and Kejriwal of doing politics of "vote bank" on national issues and "supporting" the protest at Shaheen Bagh while instigating riots and vandalism.

"The Modi government will not spare anti-national elements," he warned.

Upon mentioning the recent Supreme Court judgment on Ayodhya, Shah was greeted with cheers and chants of 'Jai Shri Ram'.

The home minister further said that this was the first Republic Day in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 and the tricolour was unfurled there with enthusiasm and without any bloodshed.

The former BJP president also attacked the Kejriwal government for not fulfilling promises like regularising temporary employees, providing free wifi, opening new schools and colleges, constructing roads and cleaning the Yamuna.

"Kejriwal government is in power since five years but till today there is no clean drinking water in the city. There are no good schools or hospitals as claimed by him. When I visited a Delhi government school, I saw that it was operating from a building that was illegally built and falls in the list of those that to be erased," Shah said.

He claimed that Kejriwal came to power with the help of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption movement but "completely changed" later on.

"He had said that he would not take any government accommodation or vehicles and other facilities but after becoming chief minister he availed all these facilities," Shah said.

He also slammed the Delhi government for not sanctioning the prosecution of former JNU students' union leader Kanhaiya Kumar in a sedition case.

Shah said if the national capital comes under the leadership of Modi, it will become the best city in the world.

The BJP has a vision for development of Delhi and cleaning the Yamuna river will be on top of our agenda, he said.

"Yamuna river is still dirty as against his (Kejriwal) claims of cleaning the river... Modi and Yogi (Adityanath) have cleaned Ganga river as promised. We will make Yamuna Riverfront like Sabarmati riverfront in Ahmedabad," Shah said.

However, a sizeable majority of those present at the public meeting was not convinced by the claims and promises made by Shah.

Bablu Yadav, a migrant and resident of Janakpuri said, "Shah and Modi can only talk but Kejriwal knows how to perform. They keep raking up issues like Ayodhya, Kashmir, Muslims and Pakistan... what are they waiting for if they want to attack Pakistan? They are in power, so why don't they destroy it instead of telling us how wrong Pakistan is?"

Another local Deepak Shrivastava who attended the Janakpuri meeting said, "All we hear from Modi and Shah are pep talks. I am an engineer from BHU and searching for a job. This government has failed the country's youth."

"Now, they have a problem with protests in universities but it is the same youth who brought them to power in 2014. The same youth will ensure their defeat," he added.

The public meeting in Janakpuri witnessed two incidents of pick-pocketing as the thieves managed to steal Rs 37,500 in cash and a mobile phone, police said.