Modi govt may meet same fate as that of Indira's: Yashwant

India will suspend all domestic flights from midnight Tuesday, the final piece of a nationwide lockdown that threatens Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to revive an economy already expanding at the slowest pace in more than a decade.

The flight ban compliments a cancellation of all passenger trains through March 31, as authorities try to halt the spread of the coronavirus in the world’s second-most populous country, which has poorly equipped hospitals and inadequate social security. Modi on Monday held a conference call with some of India’s top entrepreneurs and bankers, who urged policymakers to immediately slash interest rates by as much as a full percentage point, transfer cash to the poorest citizens, and suspend loan-repayments.

Over the past three days, state after state has declared curfews and India’s international borders have been shut for most visitors since March 11. India so far has 492 virus cases, including nine deaths. But experts say the country could be on the same trajectory as Italy, where the outbreak quickly escalated, causing hospitals to overflow.
A traveller stands outside a near-empty Delhi Junction Railway Station in Delhi, March 22.

"This is the biggest lockdown in world history,” said Raghu Raman, a former soldier with the Indian Army and founder of the National Intelligence Grid, an umbrella database aimed at countering terrorism. “This strategic pause gives decision-makers more time to arrest the exponential spread of the virus and evaluate trade-offs.”

Controlling the outbreak is crucial for Modi, who remains India’s most popular political leader currently though his economic management has faced criticism. Foreign investors are selling Indian assets at an unprecedented pace and failure to contain deaths and infections could erode some of the prime minister’s personal appeal at home.

Oxford Economics slashed India’s January-March growth forecast to 3%, a number not seen even during the worst of the global financial crisis. The main equity gauge rose about 3% on Tuesday after a record 13.2% plunge Monday, and the rupee stayed near its all-time low.

“A part of the cerebral cortex that senses fear and survival seems to have activated in the minds of investors,” said Umesh Mehta, Mumbai-based head of research at Samco Securities Ltd. “The only relief in this market can come from either policy makers and regulators, or from some positive news that a cure for the pandemic is near.”

Bloomberg Economics estimates Modi’s administration needs at least 1% of gross domestic product -- $30 billion -- to meaningfully respond to the virus outbreak. Meanwhile, the nation’s billionaires are diverting their factories to manufacture medical equipment and pledging to keep paying their staff even as production grinds to a halt. India allowed companies to use their philanthropy funds to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Reliance Industries Ltd., controlled by India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, has helped equip a hospital in Mumbai dedicated to patients of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. It will also build quarantine centers and produce 100,000 facemasks a day and other personal protective equipment for health workers. The group’s telecom unit will offer free broadband to enable work-from-home during the lockdown and will pay its lowest paid workers twice a month to protect household incomes.

Ambani joins Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Chairman Anand Mahindra and Vedanta Resources Ltd. Chairman Anil Agarwal -- a combined worth of more than $40 billion between the trio -- who have so far made pledges.

Indian companies are responding to Modi’s shutdown call. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Tata Motors Ltd., Toyota Kirloskar Motor, Hero MotoCorp., Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc., Mahindra Group, TVS Motor Co., Kia Motors Corp., Renault Nissan Automotive India Private Ltd., and Yamaha Motor India are among companies that have announced factory suspensions.

Policymakers are aware of the risks of such a move. India -- with a record 5.9 trillion rupees of local corporate debt maturing this year -- faces “waves of default” if cash flows aren’t maintained, the government’s principal economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said an interview.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week said the government will announce a relief package for coronavirus-affected sectors as soon as possible. The Reserve Bank of India, which is due to review interest rates April 3, announced a 1 trillion rupee cash injection on Monday.

“Let me assure, whatever it takes to keep the cash flow going in the economy will be done,” Sanyal said. “We need to make sure that when we are past the health storm, we still have an economy that has not gotten gridlocked. Because unwinding that would be more difficult.”

New Delhi, May 25: Realtors' apex body CREDAI has written a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking immediate relief measures to tide over the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The association, which has around 15,000 developer members, has sought one-time debt restructuring, lower interest rate on home loans and tax sops to boost liquidity and demand in the sector.

In an open letter to the prime minister, the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Associations of India (CREDAI) said, "In this distressful situation arising out of the COVID-19 calamity, we in the real estate sector seek immediate relief for our survival."

Stating that the sector contributes substantially to the country's GDP and has backward and forward linkages with almost 250 industries, CREDAI said, "Our survival, therefore, is not just desirable, it is rather crucial for the economy."

Liquidity crunch, stagnant demand and cartelization of raw materials are major impediments for the industry to kickstart, it added.

CREDAI made seven recommendations to revive the sector and sought immediate intervention from the prime minister.

Pointing out that the situation is "much worse" than global financial crisis in 2008, CREDAI said "a one-time restructuring scheme as was permitted by RBI in 2008 may be quickly instituted by all lending institutions."

Since real estate was already reeling under a cyclical downturn before COVID-19, debt restructuring needs to be allowed for all accounts which were standard as on December 31, 2019, it added.

CREDAI demanded that all banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs) should be directed to provide additional credit equal to 20 per cent of the existing real estate project related advances with no additional security and without the classification of project as NPA.

The penal interest charged by banks and financial institutions should be suspended for a period of one year or until such time as it takes for the pandemic to abate.

To revive housing demand, CREDAI suggested that "government should reduce the maximum rate of interest on new home loans to 5 per cent by subsidizing the interest component of EMIs for next five years."

The limit of principal deduction on housing loan under Section 80C should be increased to 2.5 lakh.

Interest deduction under Section 24 on housing loan for homebuyers may be increased to Rs 10 lakh, it said.

There should be no capital gains for residential properties held for a period longer than one year.

CREDAI also demanded that the subvention scheme be allowed again by National Housing Bank (NHB) and the Reserve Bank.

Under the scheme, builders used to pay EMIs on behalf of homebuyers during construction of projects.

"The economic uncertainty and job insecurity at the moment would not allow purchase of residential property at this time. A scheme whereby a homebuyer would need to pay only margin money with no EMI for 24 months will address this insecurity," the letter said.

The association pointed out that prices of cement and steel have been increased during the lockdown period, and asked for crackdown on cartelisation by manufacturers.

On the GST front, CREDAI said that the current regime of GST provides a rate of 1 per cent  for affordable housing.

"The limit of Rs 45 lakh serves as a criterion of affordability for the purpose of GST. On all other housing, GST is applied at the rate of 5 per cent without input tax credit. It has been felt that the criterion of Rs 45 lakh is too low an index of affordability anywhere across the country, and especially so in the metros," the letter said.

It will serve as an inducement to buyers in the metros if the benefit of GST at the rate of 1 per cent is extended to units costing up to Rs 75 lakh, the association said.

CREDAI pointed out that the flat rate of 5 per cent GST for under construction residential housing is causing cost build up and is acting as a deterrent for sale of under construction projects since there is no GST on completed units.

It suggested that GST rate of 1 per cent and 5 per cent, without input tax credit, should continue.

"However, an option of GST @12 per cent for normal housing/ 8 per cent for affordable housing (with 1/3rd deduction for land i.e. effective GST rate of 8 per cent for normal housing and effective GST rate of 5 per cent for affordable housing) with input tax credit (ITC) benefits in line with the scheme applicable for the works contracts for government may be revived and made applicable to the real estate," the letter said.

Lastly, CREDAI demanded that a Rs 25,000 crore stress fund for completing stalled housing projects should be deployed at the earliest.

"We shall be grateful for your much-needed intervention for the above mentioned measures required to revive the real estate sector," CREDAI said in the letter to the PM.

New Delhi, May 18: With the highest-ever spike of 5,242 new cases in last 24 hours, the total number of positive COVID-19 cases in India reached 96,169 on Monday, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

With 157 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, the death toll has risen to 3,029, as per the latest update by the ministry.

Out of the total number of cases, 36,824 have been cured/discharged/migrated.

This comes a day after the nationwide lockdown, imposed as a precautionary measure to contain the spread of COVID-19, was extended till May 31.

Maharashtra remains the worst-affected state due to the virus with 33,053 cases, including 1,198 deaths. It is followed by Gujarat (11,379), Tamil Nadu (11,224) and Delhi (10,054).