Modi govt may meet same fate as that of Indira's: Yashwant

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

New Delhi, Mar 25: The Congress said on Wednesday that it stood with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his appeal for 21-day lockdown but was "deeply disappointed by the lack of coherent strategy" and demanded that Rs 7,500 should be transferred to every Jan Dhan, PM Kisan and pension account to tide over the nutrition needs for 21-days.
It also demanded that the Public Distribution System (PDS) ration should be given free.
In a series of tweets, Congress Communications in-charge Randeep Singh Surejwala said that the need of the hour was to implement 'Minimum Income Guarantee Scheme' (Nyay) mooted by the Congress and party leader Rahul Gandhi.
"Please transfer Rs 7,500 to every Jan Dhan, PM Kisan, and every pension account to tide over nutrition needs of 21 days and give free PDS ration. We will rise together as a nation and defeat COVID-19. We stand with lockdown but are deeply disappointed by the lack of coherent strategy or a clear 'way ahead' on your part," he said.
Surjewala asked what steps the government took despite an early warning about COVID-19 and sought details about isolation beds and ventilators available to people.
"Dear PM, India will adhere to the lockdown but what steps did the govt take to tackle the corona pandemic despite early warnings in Feb? When will doctors, nurses and health workers have adequate protection? How many 'isolation beds' and ventilators are available and where?" he said.
He asked how daily wagers and labourers will sustain during the 21-day lockdown.
"What's your plan to address the huge issue of bread and butter and livelihood for millions? How will daily wagers, labourers, MGNREGA workers, factory workers, unorganised workers, fishermen, farmers and farm labour sustain for 21 days?" he asked.
Surjewala said the crying need is to arm doctors, nurses and health workers with personal protection equipment and asked: "why are N-95 masks, Hazmat suits not available?"
"In March itself, India needs 7.25 lakh bodysuits, 60 lakh N-95 masks, 1 crore 3 ply masks? When will they be available?" he asked.
Surjewala said that the government banned the export of ventilators, respiratory devices and sanitisers only yesterday on March 24, "84 days after the spread of COVID-19."
"Is this your government's 'Modus operandi' to fight coronavirus? Too little, Too late!," he said.
Noting that two-thirds of the country's population is engaged in agriculture, he said that Prime Minister Modi did not refer to farmers during his address to the nation and demanded a moratorium on farmers' loans.
"Crop is ready for harvest in March itself. How will it be harvested and sold and who will buy at fair price? Indebtedness relief to farmers is the only way forward in these testing times. Please put a moratorium on farmers' loans and recoveries. Please ensure the procurement of crops at MSP. Let's not forget that farmers are the backbone of India's economy," he said.
Surjewala said the Prime Minister gave only four hours to prepare for 21-day lockdown.
"Did you think of over 5 lakh truck drivers, who are now stranded on roads? Did you think of millions of workers, who are stranded in cities away from home without food or money? What should they do," he asked.

New Delhi, July 10: Hours before gangster Vikas Dubey was killed in an alleged police encounter on Friday, a plea was filed in the Supreme Court demanding urgent listing for action into his "possible killing" by Uttar Pradesh Police.

Advocate Ghanshyam Upadhyay had apprehended in his plea that there is a high possibility that Dubey will also be killed in a 'fake' encounter after his arrest from Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh a day ago.

Upadhyay claimed that the UP Police was expected to "concoct the same story of encounter" for Dubey like it did when four of his associates were killed after the 2 July incident.

Dubey was the primary accused in the killing of eight policemen in Kanpur on July 2. He was arrested from Ujjain on Thursday. He was killed in a police encounter, when he allegedly tried to flee on Friday morning.

"During the hunt for Dubey and co-accused, five of his accused aides were arrested/caught and then killed by the police in the name of encounter...Thus, there is every possibility that even Dubey shall be killed by Uttar Pradesh Police like other co-accused once his custody is obtained," Upadhyay feared.

He submitted that the killing of the accused by the police in the name of encounter no matter how heinous the crime was "against the rule of law and serious violation of human rights and nothing sort of Talibanisation of the country". Upadhyay sought hearing in the matter on Friday itself, citing extreme urgency.