‘Modi govt will not tolerate this’: HRD minister to universities against CAA

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

New Delhi, May 17: Eight of the 10 most valued domestic firms suffered a combined erosion of Rs 1,37,311.31 crore in market valuation last week, with Reliance Industries (RIL) taking the biggest knock.

Only Bharti Airtel and ITC from the top-10 list managed to close the week with gains.

RIL's market cap plunged Rs 65,232.46 crore to Rs 9,24,855.56 crore.

The market valuation of HDFC Bank declined Rs 22,347.07 crore to Rs 4,87,083.88 crore and that of Hindustan Unilever Limited tanked Rs 13,192.26 crore to Rs 4,77,458.89 crore.

ICICI Bank's market cap dropped Rs 9,770.06 crore to Rs 2,08,900.79 crore.

Infosys witnessed a decline of Rs 9,518.84 crore in valuation to reach Rs 2,77,814.09 crore while that of HDFC tumbled Rs 9,370.38 crore to Rs 2,83,293.70 crore.

The m-cap of Kotak Mahindra Bank slipped by Rs 7,805.2 crore to Rs 2,25,327.22 crore.

Tata Consultancy Services' market valuation dipped Rs 75.04 crore to Rs 7,10,439 crore.

In contrast, Bharti Airtel added Rs 13,147.89 crore to its valuation to stand at Rs 3,02,292.43 crore.

ITC's valuation also rose by Rs 7,744.11 crore to Rs 2,02,330.13 crore.

In the ranking of top-10 firms, RIL retained the number one spot, followed by TCS, HDFC Bank, HUL, Airtel, HDFC, Infosys, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank and ITC.

During the last week, the Sensex declined 544.97 points or 1.72 per cent.

Chennai, Feb 5: The popular cine actor Rajinikanth has defended the Union Government on the Citizenship Amendment Act, saying it will not affect the Indian Muslims.

In a brief interaction with reporters this morning in Chennai, the matinee idol said if the Muslims are affected by the CAA, he would be at the forefront in their defence. He asked how will the legislation affect the Indian Muslims when they chose to stay back in the country to make it their motherland. Mr Rajinikanth also supported the National Population Register saying it has been in force even in the past.

On the NRC, Mr Rajinikanth said the Government has already made it clear that its nationwide rollout has not been even discussed so far. Mr Rajinikanth is nourishing political ambitions and has made it clear that he would plunge into politics ahead of the Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections in the state which is due in 2021.