Modi govt's maiden budget hinges on restart, repair, reform

July 7, 2014

New Delhi, July 7: Investors have very high hopes for the new pro-business Modi government's maiden budget on July 10. It has three priorities: restarting a stalled investment cycle, repairing the government's fiscal health and reforming the supply side of the economy.images

Addressing all three will be a daunting task. But with a mix of honesty and creativity, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Finance Minister Arun Jaitley just might pull it off.

Fiscal repair is where honesty is needed the most. Admitting that last year's actual deficit was more like 5 percent of GDP, not the 4.5 percent announced by the previous government, would be a good start. That lower number was an accounting artefact; using it as a baseline for fiscal correction will either mean intolerable austerity or a return to book-keeping shenanigans. Instead, the focus should be on boosting revenue.

Speeding up privatization is one way to achieve that goal: the government is contemplating an ambitious asset sales target of $11.7 billion, Reuters reported on July 6. That's almost equal to the proceeds of the past four years. A creatively designed amnesty for bringing back wealth parked illegally in overseas tax havens could also help. Using the proceeds to invest in infrastructure and recapitalize state-run banks could ease the immediate resource crunch. The investment cycle would restart.

For a more sustained fiscal fix, the government will have to switch public spending from subsidies and handouts to facilitating jobs and investment. This will require supply-side reforms. Investors are expecting an ambitious plan for skilling up India's 435-million-strong workforce. Freeing employees from archaic labour laws is the next step.

Making the corporate tax regime more predictable, for instance by scrapping the retrospective amendment to tax laws introduced in 2012, will also help improve the business climate. Easing restrictions on foreign investment in defence, railways and e-commerce would help to deepen the country's manufacturing base.

By the time he presents his next budget in February, Jaitley will have had a chance to make reluctant state governments drop their objection to a long-delayed federal sales tax, which could well become the Modi government's most important legislative reform. For now, though, a judicious combination of restart, repair and reform should be enough to keep investors happy.

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News Network
May 4,2020

New Delhi, May 4: The country's manufacturing sector activity witnessed unprecedented contraction in April amid national lockdown restrictions, following which new business orders collapsed at a record pace and firms sharply reduced their staff numbers, a monthly survey said on Monday.

The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 27.4 in April, from 51.8 in March, reflecting the sharpest deterioration in business conditions across the sector since data collection began over 15 years ago.
The index slipped into contraction mode, after remaining in the growth territory for 32 consecutive months.

In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below that denotes contraction.

Amid widespread business closures, demand conditions were severely hampered in April. New orders fell for the first time in two-and-a-half years and at the sharpest rate in the survey's history, far outpacing that seen during the global financial crisis, the survey said.

"After making it through March relatively unscathed, the Indian manufacturing sector felt the full force of the coronavirus pandemic in April," said Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit.
Panellists attributed lower production to temporary factory closures that were triggered by restrictive measures to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Export orders also witnessed a sharp decline. Following the first reduction since October 2017 during March, foreign sales fell at a quicker rate in April. "In fact, the rate of decline accelerated to the fastest since the series began over 15 years ago," the survey said.

On the employment front, deteriorating demand conditions saw manufacturers drastically cut back staff numbers in April. The reduction in employment was the quickest in the survey's history.

"In the latest survey period, record contractions in output, new orders and employment pointed to a severe deterioration in demand conditions.
“Meanwhile, there was evidence of unprecedented supply-side disruption, with input delivery times lengthening to the greatest extent since data collection began in March 2005," Kerr said.

On the prices front, both input costs and output prices were lowered markedly as suppliers and manufacturers themselves offered discounts in an attempt to secure orders.

Going ahead, sentiment regarding the 12-month outlook for production ticked up from March's recent low on hopes that demand will rebound once the COVID-19 threat has diminished and lockdown restrictions eased.

"There was a hint of positivity when looking at firms' 12-month outlooks, with sentiment towards future activity rebounding from March's record low. That said, the degree of optimism remained well below the historical average," Kerr said.

In India, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 1,373 and the number of cases climbed to 42,533 as on Monday, according to the health ministry.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus-induced lockdown has been extended beyond May 4, for another two weeks in the country.

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Agencies
July 15,2020

Mumbai, Jul 15: In a mega investment announcement, Reliance Industries (RIL) Chairman Mukesh Ambani on Wednesday said that Google will invest ₹ 33,737 crore in Jio Platforms for an equity stake of 7.73%.

Google is investing at an equity valuation of ₹ 4.36 lakh crore, said an RIL regulatory filing.

"Jio Platforms Limited, a subsidiary of the Company, today signed binding agreements with Google International LLC pursuant to which Google would invest ₹ 33,737 crore for a 7.73 % equity stake in Jio Platforms Limited on a fully-diluted basis. Google is investing at an equity valuation of ₹ 4.36 lakh crore," it said.

The transaction is subject to customary regulatory approvals.

Speaking at the Annual General Meeting of RIL, Ambani said that he looks forward to working with investors in Jio Platforms in a collaborative way.

Making another major announcement, the RIL Chairman said that Jio has designed a complete 5G solution and it will be available for trials as soon as spectrum is available.

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News Network
February 28,2020

Feb 28: Life was limping back to normalcy in some parts of the riot-hit northeast Delhi, with police and paramilitary personnel maintaining strict vigil in view of Friday prayers at mosques.

Police officers said they were also making extra efforts to quell rumours, and holding regular flag marches and interactions in the neighbourhoods of affected areas as confidence-building measures.

In some areas of northeast Delhi, signs of normal life were witnessed with opening of shops. In violence-hit areas also, shops in streets and bylanes were open.

Nearly 7,000 paramilitary forces have been deployed in the affected areas of the northeast district since Monday. Besides, hundreds of Delhi police personnel are on the ground to maintain peace and prevent any untoward incident.

At least 38 were killed and over 200 injured in the communal clashes that broke out in northeast Delhi on Monday after violence between citizenship law supporters and protesters spiralled out of control The areas affected include Jaffrabad, Maujpur, Chand Bagh, Khureji Khas and Bhajanpura..

The Union Home Ministry had said on Thursday night that no major incident was reported from the northeast district in the past 36 hours, It had said that prohibitory orders imposed under Section 144 would be relaxed for 10 hours in view of improvement in the situation.

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