Modi wades into beef row with attack on Lalu Prasad

New Delhi, Mar 29: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday said that people should not think of COVID-19 quarantine facilities as a prison and spoke with two survivors of the infection during his radio show 'Mann Ki Baat' to establish that it was curable.
The Prime Minister spoke to coronavirus survivors -- Ramagampa Teja and Ashok Kapoor - and urged them to share their success against the infection with people.
The Prime Minister asked people to listen to the survivors who had successfully defeated the coronavirus.
"I have spoken to a few people who were infected from the virus and speaking to such people. While I tried to boost their morale they also lifted my spirits when I talked to them," he said.
Speaking to the Prime Minister during the show, Ramagampa Teja, an IT professional, who tested positive for COVID-19 after returning from Dubai, said that he was frightened when he tested positive for the disease and could not believe that this has happened to him.
He said even his family was very stressed after finding out his COVID-19 positive status. "But their test results came negative, which I took as a great blessing. And since then, there were improvements every day," he said.
Teja was admitted to a government hospital in Hyderabad and was released after 14 days as he successfully overcame the infection. "The first few days were the hardest but the dedicated doctors and nurses at the hospital ensured that I recovered," he added.
He asked people not to be afraid of being quarantined. "People feel that going into quarantine means going to prison. They should know that the government quarantine is for them and their families. I want to emphasise that people must get tested and do not fear quarantine," he added.
The Prime Minister congratulated him and his family and asked him to share an audio clip of his experience. "I would like you to make an audio of your experiences and share it on social media so that it goes viral and removes fear from people's minds," the Prime Minister said.
The Prime Minister also spoke to another coronavirus survivor, Ashok Kapoor, six members of whose family in Agra were tested positive for the deadly virus.
On being asked by the Prime Minister whether they had feared for their lives, Kapoor said, "We were not scared as we received excellent cooperation from the doctors and support staff at Delhi's Safdarjung Hospital."
The six of them were shifted to Delhi and put under quarantine for 14 days where all of them successfully recovered from the infection.
The Prime Minister also commended the spirit of Ashok Kapoor and said: "Your experience came in handy for all. My best wishes to you and your family."
He also urged the Kapoor family to spread awareness regarding COVID-19 in the way they see fit. "Please spread awareness your way and you can feed whoever is hungry, look out for the poor and also spread awareness to people urging them to follow the rules," the Prime Minister said.
"If everyone follows the rules, the country will be saved," the Prime Minister said.
The Prime Minister also thanked the people involved in ensuring the continuous supply of goods and services in the country and advised them to "follow all the safety precautions, take care of themselves and their family members."
Earlier in his address, Modi had asked for the forgiveness of all countrymen, and especially the poor, for the nationwide lockdown in the country in the view of the novel coronavirus. He had then termed it a necessary measure needed to defeat the infection in India.

New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

New Delhi, Apr 19: The government on Sunday prohibited the sale of non-essential items through e-commerce platforms during the ongoing lockdown, four days after allowing such companies to sale mobile phones, refrigerators and ready-made garments.

Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla issued an order excluding the non-essential items from sale by the e-commerce companies from the consolidated revised guidelines, which listed the exemption given to the services and people from the purview of the lockdown.

The order said the following clause "E-commerce companies. Vehicles used by e-commerce operators will be allowed to ply with necessary permissions" is excluded from the guidelines.

The previous order had said such items were allowed for sale through e-commerce platforms from April 20.

However, the reason for reversing the order is not known immediately.