Modi walks in the wild with Bear Grylls

May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

Mumbai, Jun 1: Singer-composer Wajid Khan of music director duo Sajid-Wajid, popular for their work on superstar Salman Khan's films such as "Wanted", "Dabangg" and "Ek Tha Tiger", died in early hours of Monday in a city hospital due to complications arising from a kidney infection. He was 42.

Music composer Salim Merchant, who confirmed the news of Wajid's death, said the composer was hospitalised few days ago at Surana Hospital, Chembur where his condition deteriorated.

"He had multiple issues. He had a kidney issue and had a transplant a while ago. But recently he got to know about kidney infection... He was on the ventilator for the last four days, after his situation started getting worse. Kidney infection was the beginning and then he got critical," Salim told PTI.

The music composer duo made their Bollywood debut with Salman's 1998 movie "Pyaar Kiya Toh Darna Kya" and went on to work on actor's various films including "Garv", "Tere Naam", "Tumko Na Bhool Payenge", "Partner" and the popular "Dabangg" franchise.

Wajid also did playback for Salman in chartbusters like "Mera He Jalwa", "Fevicol Se" and for Akshay Kumar in "Chinta Ta Chita Chita" from the film "Rowdy Rathore", among others. He recently co-composed Salman's songs "Pyaar Karona" and "Bhai Bhai", which the actor released on his YouTube channel.

Wajid along with his brother Sajid served as mentor on singing reality shows "Sa Re Ga Ma Pa 2012" and "Sa Re Ga Ma Pa Singing Superstar".

The composer duo also scored IPL 4 theme song, "Dhoom Dhoom Dhoom Dhadaka", which was sung by Wajid.

Soon after the news of the composer's demise broke, many from the film fraternity took to Twitter to pay tributes.

Actor Priyanka Chopra said she will always remember Wajid's smile.

"The one thing I will always remember is Wajid bhai's laugh. Always smiling. Gone too soon. My condolences to his family and everyone grieving. Rest in peace my friend. You are in my thoughts and prayers," she posted on Twitter.

Actor Parineeti Chopra said Wajid was one of the "nicest" men in the industry.

"Always singing. All heart. Always positive. You will truly be missed Wajid bhai," she tweeted.

Actor Varun Dhawan shared a picture of his filmmaker-father David Dhawan with Wajid and remembered the musician as one of the most positive people in Bollywood.

"Shocked hearing this news @wajidkhan7 bhai was extremely close to me and my family. He was one of the most positive people to be around. We will miss you Wajid bhai thank you for the music," he wrote.

Music composer-singer Vishal Dadlani said he was "heartbroken" after hearing the news.

"Both @SajidMusicKhan and @wajidkhan7 have been close & true friends. The kind who might see the light on and show up at our studio in the middle of the night just to meet and talk and share a laugh. Can't believe Wajid and I will never speak again," he wrote.

Singer-composer Shankar Mahadevan said he was still unable to come to terms with the news of Wajid's demise.

"Shocking ! Good bye dear brother.. love you .. till we meet on the other side ! Prayers for your peaceful journey Wajid bhai," he tweeted.

Singer Javed Ali posted, "Feeling Deeply Saddened after hearing shocking news of the sudden demise of Wajid Khan. May his Soul Rest in Peace. My heartfelt condolences to his family. May Allah give strength to the family."

New Delhi, May 31: A low pressure area formed over Arabian sea and Lakshadweep is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and reach coastal states of Maharashtra and Gujarat next week, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

Sunitha Devi, in charge of cyclones at IMD, said, "A low pressure area has formed over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea and Lakshadweep area. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 24 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours."

She added, "It is likely to move nearly northwards and reach near north Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts by 3rd June."

A low pressure area and a depression are the first two levels on the IMD's eight-category scale used to classify cyclones based on their intensity.

The weather bureau said that the sea condition will be very rough and advised fishermen not to venture into the sea till June 4.

It has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over south coastal Maharashtra for June 2-4, on north coast on June 2-3 and in Gujarat, Daman and Diu and Dadar and Nagar Haveli on June 3-5.

IMD said that under the influence of likely formation of a low pressure system over Arabian Sea, conditions will become favourable from June 1 for onset of monsoon over Kerala.

The arrival date for monsoon in Kerala is around June 1 every year and in Maharashtra around June 10.

On Saturday, a private forecasting agency claimed that monsoon has already hit Kerala, but the assertions were quickly rebutted by the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

"The news about monsoon onset over Kerala in Social Media is not correct. Monsoon has not arrived over Kerala. The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge a"Stephen Hawking," saidAMadhavan Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Kuldeep Srivastava, the head of IMD's Regional Weather Forecasting Centre said that the formation of a low pressure system in Arabian sea and its movement towards Gujarat coast will bring moisture to Delhi-NCR and North West India from June 3.

Two storms are forming over the Arabian Sea, one lies off the African coast and is likely to move over Oman and Yemen, while the other is placed close to India.

The development comes almost ten days after 'Amphan' pummeled four districts of Bengal in the fiercest cyclone in the region in a century, that left 86 people dead and rendered ten million people homeless.