Modi’s ‘Stay at Home’ Call May Deepen India’s Economic Slowdown

News Network
March 21, 2020

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

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Agencies
January 15,2020

New Delhi, Jan 15: Suspended Deputy Superintendent of J&K Police Davinder Singh had ferried Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Naveed Babu to Jammu last year also and facilitated his return to Shopian after "rest and recuperation", officials interrogating him said here Tuesday.

"Meri mati maari gayi thi (I must have lost my mind to do what I did)," an interrogator quoted Singh as saying after the DSP failed to impress them with his theory of catching a big terrorist.

Singh was arrested last Saturday along with Naveed Babu alias Babar Azam, a resident of Nazneenpora in South Kashmir's Shopian district, and his associate Asif Ahmad.

He is believed to have taken Rs 12 lakh for smuggling the two to Chandigarh for providing them accommodation for a couple of months, officials said. The officials, who have been spending considerable time questioning Singh, said there have been many inconsistencies in his statements and everything was being crosschecked and corroborated with the confessions of captured militants who have been kept in different rooms at an interrogation centre in South Kashmir.

During questioning it emerged that Singh had taken them to Jammu in 2019 also, the officials said.

In a tone laced with sarcasm, they said the DSP was taking the militants for "rest and recuperation".

Naveed told the interrogators that they used to stay in the hilly regions to avoid the J&K police and left the areas to escape harsh winters, they said.

The official said the DSP's bank accounts and other assets were being verified by the police and papers were being collected, amid speculations that the case may be handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA).

Going into the service history of Singh, majority of retired and serving officials of the JKP spoken to referred to a proverb -- coming events cast their shadows long before -- to say that if action had been taken against the officer during his probation period, such things would not have happened.

Recruited in 1990 as a sub-inspector, Singh along with another probationary officer were subject of an internal enquiry where some narcotics had been seized from a truck. However, the contraband was sold by Singh and another sub-inspector, the officials recalled.

There was a move to dismiss them from the service which was stalled by an Inspector General rank officer purely on humanitarian ground and the duo was shifted to the Special Operations Group, a team of policemen engaged in counter-militancy offensive.

However, he could not last there for long and was shifted this time to the police lines only to be rehabilitated in 1997 again in the SOG.

During this period, he was posted in Budgam and is alleged to have indulged in extortion for which he was sent back to the police lines.

His proper rehabilitation began in 2015 by the then Director General of Police K Rajendra, who posted him in district headquarters of Shopian and Pulwama, the officials said.

However, after some alleged wrongdoing during his stint in Pulwama, the then Director General of Police S P Vaid transferred him in August 2018 to the sensitive Anti-Hijacking Unit in Srinagar, though the move was opposed by some other officers.

An advocate, Irfan Ahmad Mir, was driving the vehicle when they were caught by the police on National Highway in Kulgam district.

The advocate, who has also been arrested, had travelled to Pakistan five times on an Indian passport.

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News Network
May 24,2020

New Delhi, May 24: New rules for domestic travel during the lockdown were released by the government today, including advising passengers to download the Aarogya Setu application on their mobile devices and asking states to ensure thermal screening at departure point of airports, railway stations and bus terminals. The guidelines were shared by Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, who also shared new rules for international travel.

The minister had recently said that international flight operations may start by mid-June or end-July if the COVID-19 virus "behaves in a predictable manner".

"Prescribed clinical protocol will be followed in case any domestic or international traveller shows symptoms of COVID-19. States can also develop their own protocol for quarantine and isolation as per their own assessment," Mr Puri said.

The guidelines come a day before the resumption of air travel after nearly two-months hiatus following lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

The Indian Railways has also issued a list of 100 pairs of trains that it will operate from June 1, putting in operation popular trains such as Durontos, Sampark Krantis, Jan Shatabdis and Poorva Express.

Dos and Don'ts shall be provided along with tickets to travellers by agencies concerned, said the Health Ministry's guidelines for domestic travel (air/train/inter-state bus travel).

Latest guidelines on domestic & international travel have been issued by @MoHFW_INDIA.

I hope travellers strictly follow these self-regulatory norms & strengthen India's hands in this fight against COVID19. Remember, each one of us is a soldier against the pandemic.@MoCA_GoIpic.twitter.com/xVbTG1K44n

— Hardeep Singh Puri (@HardeepSPuri) May 24, 2020
Travellers shall give 14-day quarantine undertaking before boarding

The states and Union Territories shall ensure that all passengers undergo thermal screening at the point of departure and only asymptomatic passengers are allowed to board the flight, train or bus. Asymptomatic passengers, however, will be permitted to travel after they give an undertaking to self-monitor for 14 days, the ministry said.

Those having moderate or severe symptoms will be admitted to dedicated COVID health facilities and managed accordingly, the guidelines said.

Those having mild symptoms will be given the option of home isolation or isolated in the COVID Care Centre (both public and private facilities) as appropriate and tested as per ICMR protocol, they said.

"If positive, they will continue in COVID Care Centre and will be managed as per clinical protocol. If negative, the passenger may be allowed to go home, isolate himself/herself and self-monitor his/her health for further 7 days," the health ministry said.

In case, any symptoms develop they shall inform the district surveillance officer or the state or the national call centre (1075), it said.

Use of face covers, following respiratory hygine during travel

During boarding and travel, all passengers shall use face covers or masks and will also follow hand hygiene, respiratory hygiene and maintain environmental hygiene, the ministry said in its guidelines.

At airports, railway stations and bus terminals, required measures to ensure social distancing shall be taken, the guidelines said.

Airports, railway stations and bus terminals to be regularly sanitised

Airports, railway stations and bus terminals should be regularly sanitised or disinfected and the availability of soaps and sanitisers shall be ensured, the health ministry said.

The ministry said that states can also develop their own protocol with regards to quarantine and isolation as per their assessment.

Guidelines for International Travel

The guidelines for international travel include mandatory undertaking for quarrantine for 14 days. "Only for exceptional and compelling reasons such as cases of human distress, pregnancy, death in family, serious illness and parent(s) accompanied by children below 10 yrs, as assessed by the receiving states, home quarantine may be permitted for international travellers for 14 days," the Civil Aviation minister said.

Asymptomatic travelers will be allowed to board flight/ship

At the time of boarding the flight or ship, only asymptomatic travellers will be allowed to board after thermal screening, the health ministry said.. Passengers arriving through land borders will also have to undergo the same procedure, it said.

"Self-declaration form in duplicate shall be filled by the person in the flight/ship and a copy of the same will be given to Health and immigration officials present at the airport/seaport/landport. The form will be made available through the Aarogya Setu app," the new order said.

Passengers found to be symtomatic during screening shall be immediately isolated and taken to medical facility as per health protocol. "These passengers will be kept under institutional quarrantine for a minimum period of 7 days and should undergo necessary tests as per ICMR protocol," the guidelines said.

Sanitisation and disinfection must inside flights

Authorities must take adequate measures to such as environmental sanitation and disinfection at the airports as well as within the flights, the guideline said.Suitable announcement about COVID-19 including precautionary measures to be followed shall be made at airports/ports, it added.

While on board flight, ships, passengers and crew required precautions such as wearing of masks, environmental hygiene, respiratory hygiene, hand hygiene, the ministry said.

This morning, India registered the biggest-single day jump in the number of coronavirus cases as 6,767 new patients were reported in the last 24 hours. This is the third consecutive day that India has reported more than 6,000 COVID-19 cases with a record number of new patients each day. The county has officially logged 1,31,868 cases, 3,867 deaths linked to the highly infectious illness since the pandemic began. Of these, 147 patients died in the last 24 hours. The global number of novel coronavirus cases has passed 5.25 million with more than 339,000 deaths. Since the outbreak first emerged in China in December, 5,260,970 cases have been recorded across 196 countries and territories, with 339,758 deaths attributed to the virus.

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News Network
May 15,2020

Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala activist Rehana Fathima has been asked to take compulsory retirement from BSNL after she was embroiled in Sabarimala row.

Stating that her attempt to enter the shrine of celibate god in 2018 had spoiled the reputation of the company among customers, the BSNL, in its order asked her to take compulsory retirement, further claiming that her acts were “subversive of discipline and amount to misconduct”.

She was suspended from service following her arrest in November 2018 over Facebook posts.

Fathima, who is a technician with the state-run communications company, said she will explore legal remedies against the order sent by her employer.

The Fathima hit headlines when she attempted to enter the Sabarimala shrine, which has traditionally been closed to women in the age group of 10-50 years.

She did after the Supreme Court order allowing entry of women in the age group of 10-50.

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