More Airlines to Shut Operations If Predatory Fare Pricing Continues: Aviation Minister

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

New Delhi, Jun 13: India's COVID-19 tally on Saturday witnessed its highest-ever spike of 11,458 cases, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW).

A total of 386 deaths have been reported due to the infection during the last 24 hours.

The total number of coronavirus cases in the country now stands at 3,08,993 including 1,45,779 active cases 1,54,330 cured/discharged/migrated and 8,884 deaths.

COVID-19 cases in Maharashtra continue to soar with the number reaching 101141. Tamil Nadu's coronavirus count stands at 40,698 while cases in Delhi reached 36,824.

New Delhi, Jul 22: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi termed the BJP-led Uttar Pradesh government as 'goonda raj' (rule by hooligans), hours after Ghaziabad-based journalist Vikram Joshi succumbed to bullet injury he received from a group of men, who had allegedly harassed the scribe's niece.

"Journalist Vikram Jashi was killed after he protested against the harassment against his niece. My condolence to the family. They promised Ram Raj, but gave Goondaraj," Gandhi tweeted.

"Is it the same Ram Rajya that BJP promised after it came to power? This is complete 'Goondaraj'. Neither journalist, nor those who protect the law are safe in UP, so how can the common man expect justice," tweeted his party colleague Randeep Surjewala.

Expressing his shock over the incident, party leader and lawyer Abhishek Singhvi said, "Shocking jungle raj in #Ghaziabad area with journalist #Joshi, already known as the complainant in #FIR, being shot on a scooter while with his daughters, struggling in a coma with a bullet in the skull! Thank God daughters not hit. Shocking, scary, disgusting lack of fear of law & order! #UP."

Ajay Kumar Lallu, Congress president in the state added, "The Ghaziabad incident has shocked the entire state. It's a tragic incident. Nobody is safe in Uttar Pradesh. If it is not jungle raj then what is. The government remains silent while criminals are becoming more active. While leaving home in the morning, people in the state worry whether they will be able to return in the evening or not."

In the meantime, the Station in-charge has been suspended and a departmental inquiry has been ordered after the journalist's family accused the police of inaction. A total of nine accused have been taken into the custody, while efforts are on to nab another accused.