Mumbai: Central suburban trains come to a halt after commuters protest delays

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

Jun 8: Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 60 paisa per litre on Monday, for the second day in a row, as state-owned oil firms reverted to daily price revisions after a 83-day hiatus.

Petrol price in Delhi was hiked to Rs 72.46 per litre from Rs 71.86 on Sunday, while diesel rates were increased to Rs 70.59 a litre from Rs 69.99, according to a price notification of state oil marketing companies.

This is the second daily increase in rates in a row. Oil companies had on Sunday raised prices by 60 paisa per litre on both petrol and diesel after ending a 83-day hiatus in daily rate revision.

Daily price revision has restarted, an oil company official said.

While oil PSUs have regularly revised ATF and LPG prices, they had since March 16 kept petrol and diesel prices on hold, ostensibly on account of extreme volatility in the international oil markets.

Auto fuel prices were frozen soon after the government raised excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 3 per litre each to mop up gains arising from falling international rates.

The government on May 6 again raised excise duties by Rs 10 per litre on petrol and Rs 13 per litre on diesel.

Oil companies, instead of passing on the excise hike to consumers, decided to adjust them against the reduction required because of the drop in international oil prices. They used the same tool and did not pass on the Re 1 per litre hike required for switching over to ultra-clean BS-VI grade fuel from April 1.

Aurangabad, May 8: At least 15 migrant workers, who were sleeping on the railway tracks while going back to their native places, were run over by a goods train between Maharashtra's Jalna and Aurangabad, officials said on Friday.

A senior railway official confirmed that 15 migrant labourers were run over by a goods train between Jalna and Aurangabad of Nanded Divison of South Central Railway.

The official said that the incident happened around 5.30 am on Friday when the migrant workers, who were on way back to their homes and sleeping on the railway tracks.

However, it is yet not clear from where this group hailed and where they were going.

Amid the nationwide lockdown, thousands of migrant workers stranded in several other cities have started their journey to return to their native places on foot.

The interstate bus service, passenger, mail and express train services have been suspended since March 24.

The railways has started running Shramik Special trains to transport the stranded migrants to their native places since May 1.

Till Thursday railways has run 201 Shramik Special trains.