Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.
"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."
India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.
While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.
Okay Budget
“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.
The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.
On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.
The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.
Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.
Key highlights from the budget:
* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders
* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies
* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more
* Spending on education raised 5%
* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%
Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.
“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.
With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:
The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.
-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist
Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.
Comments
Islam is not a religion to add membership to show the population.
It is a true religion to practice guidelines of only one creator Allah (S.B.T). Accepting and quitting Islam will not make any difference for true Muslims. One who understands his creator will not reject his religion even if he dies because his life starts after death which is unlimited. The life in earth is so short that we can compare to hotel stay for a day.
Rejecting Islam means he is rejecting his creator Al Mighty Allah and it doesn’t mean he is quitting from Islam
Islam is the second largest religion in the world only in Qty. where is true Muslim? very few in qty
Accepting Islam doesn’t mean becoming membership in Islam. It is accepting his creator and his guidelines to practice successful and peaceful life and thereby prepare for his permanent life which starts after his death.
For true Muslims there is no fear to die. because he is always prepared and waiting for his death
May Almighty Allah guide us True path and success.
This is really unfortunate. He has chnged in religion only to get the verdict in his favor. Suppose he wont get it, will he convert to Christianity or Budhism or Sikhism? Will the media give same preference in case he would have changed to religion other than Hinduism or if any Hindu converted to another religion. This issue is now on the top agenda of Media and they are publishing it by applying ghee + butter. None knows truth behind it. However this family will not succeed in this world and the life after death if they convert to other religion though none can force them to change the religion. Islam or Muslims will not lose anything if this family converts to another religion. But this family will lose and they will realise it sooner or later. Let us pray God to keep them on right path and not on the path of Sathan.
he would have converted to christinaty so he can get international help from devil DOnald trump or vatican pope, lol religion is your choice, but the main point here the god look at is your heart, how you treat mankind & how you obey GOD command, how to spend you money & how you live..people who worship idol will be throwen to hell forever there is no excuse and the punishment is very severe, if your an eithest there will be a change & it depend on GOD & also how you lived in earth.
The religion is set of law decreed by the CREATOR/ ONE AND ONLY GOD.
It guides from birth till death and showing how to be also succesful in the life after the death.
This is not how we think just to suite the temporary needs.
Before accepting or rejecting any religion, he should have thorough idea of its teachings.
Unless it is known, believed in it and practiced, we can not call him the follower of Hinduism OR ISLAM, OR Christianity OR whatever.
Like changing for personal temporary gains, has no meaning and not required they can live like aninals which have no religions.
The animals follow and do whatever easy for them.
God give wisdom to all
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