Muslim student leader shot dead in broad daylight; CM calls for peace

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Patna, Jun 10: A man in Bihar has willed half his property to two elephants after one of them foiled an attempt on his life by a pistol-totting criminal.

Akhtar Imam, chief manager of the Asian Elephant Rehabilitation and Wildlife Animal Trust (AERAWAT), said he has been looking after elephants since the age of 12.

"Once, there was an attempt of murder made against me. At that time the elephants saved me. When some miscreants armed with pistols tried to enter my room my elephant started trumpeting. It woke me up and I was able to shout and raise an alarm due to which the miscreants ran away," Imam said.

Imam says the two elephants, named Moti and Rani are like family for him and he cannot live without them.

However, the man claims that he fears threats to his life from his family members after he transferred his land to his two elephants. Imam's wife and sons have been living away from him for the last 10 years due to some dispute in the family.

He recounted that his son had allegedly filed a wrong case against him and also got him locked up. He eventually was let away after the charges levelled against him were proven wrong.

Imam said that his son Meraj had tried to sell the elephant to smugglers but was fortunately caught.

Imam says he has willed half of his property to his wife and his share of property worth Rs 5 crore to elephants said that if the jumbos die then the money would go to AERAWAT organisation.

Kolkata, Jan 15: The arrows of Mahabharata's Arjuna had atomic power, claimed West Bengal Governor Jagdeep Dhankhar, drawing sharp criticism from academicians, even as he joined a long list of politicians who have in recent years given bizarre interpretations linking mythology with science.

Speaking at the 45th Eastern India Science Fair and 19th Science and Engineering Fair on Tuesday, Dhankhar also claimed that flying objects existed during the period of Ramayana.

"It is said that the plane was invented in 1910 or 1911, but if we delve into our old scriptures we will see in Ramayana, we had 'uran khatola' (aircraft)," he said.

"Sanjaya narrated the entire war of Mahabharata (to Dhitarasthra) not from TV. The arrows of Arjuna in Mahabharata had atomic power in it," Dhankhar said, asserting that the world can no longer afford to ignore India.

According to Sanskrit epic Mahabharata, Sanjay, even after staying away from the battlefield, had narrated what was happening there to Dhritarashtra, who was blind.

Dhankhar, who has been in news for clashes with the Mamata Banerjee government ever since he assumed office in July last year, joins politicians such as Tripura Chief Minister Biplab Deb and UP deputy chief minister Dinesh Sharma to give odd interpretations of mythology.

While Deb had claimed that the internet existed during Mahabharata, Sharma suggested that godess Sita was a test tube baby.

Recently, Puducherry Lt Governor Kiran Bedi was trolled online for sharing a doctored video that claimed, "NASA recorded sound of sun -- Sun chants Om".

Indologist Nrisingha Prasad Bhaduri said governors appointed by the BJP government at the Centre are delving into everything and behave "as if they are know-alls".

"They fail to understand one thing that great writers have very strong power of imagination," Bhaduri said.

Scientist Sandip Chakraborty said such comments only hurt the scientific progress in India at the global forum.

"The ancient writers described all these things based on their imagination. It is true that India made a lot of progress during the ancient period, but such comments only damages the progress made by our scientific community," he said.