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New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

New Delhi, May 28: With 6,566 more coronavirus cases and 194 deaths reported in the past 24 hours, India's COVID-19 tally reached 1,58,333 on Thursday, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Affairs.

The number of active coronavirus cases stands at 86,110, while 67,692 people have recovered and one patient has migrated, it said. The death toll due to the infection has reached 4,531 in the country.

Maharashtra is the worst affected state with 56,948 cases. Tamil Nadu has recorded as many as 18,545 cases while Gujarat and Delhi have recorded 15,195 and 15,257 coronavirus cases respectively.

Dubai/Abu Dhabi, May 7: A group passengers who are scheduled to fly to Kozhikode on the first COVID-19 Indian repatriation flight have begun streaming in to Terminal 2 at Dubai International Airport.

Wearing masks and gloves, the passengers are now waiting for the medical screening and check-in services to begin.

Airport officials gave entry to the departure terminal only to passengers with tickets.

Naif resident Mahamood P.P, 60, was among the first to reach as he was not informed about the change in the flight schedule, he told Gulf News.

“I reached here at 9.30am as I didn’t get any information about the 2.10pm flight getting rescheduled to the evening,” he said.

Suffering from a heart disease, Mahmood, who works as a juice maker at a juice shop near Naif Police station, said he stepped out of his room for the first time in two months.

“As there were many cases in Naif, I never went out because of my health condition. Since I was not in contact with anyone else other than my roommates who also never went out, I didn’t go for the COVID screening also. I was worried that I might be exposed to infection while waiting for the tests,” he said.

He thanked the Indian Consulate for giving him priority to fly home. “I need to go for my heart checkup. So I wanted to fly home as soon as possible.”

However, he said his son, a civil engineer who came here searching for a job, is not flying back though he is on a visit visa.

“Since the UAE government has allowed people on visit visa to stay here till December, he has decided to try his luck in getting a job,” said Mahamood.

Sneha Thomas, who is eight months pregnant, was also among the first to arrive at the airport.

Her husband Somi Jose came to drop her.

Thomas is among 11 pregnant women flying on the Dubai-Kozhikode flight.

Sharjah resident for 30 years, Mohammed Ali Yaseen, who is also the secretary of the Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre in Sharjah, said he is flying home as the restaurant he was running had to be closed due to a demolition plan of the building.

“Three months ago I got the notice to vacate the building and I had to close the restaurant. I was looking for another shop. But then the coronavirus hit. Now there is no point in me opening me a new shop as those who are already operational are not getting any business.”

He said he decided to drop the plan and go home for now. “My visa and license are still valid. I will try to come back when this pandemic ends and things are better.”

Meanwhile, at the Au Dhabi International Airport, families with kids were given priority to proceed towrards check-in. at terminal 3. The passengers coming in right now were mostly women who were on a visit visa. Pregnant women and the elderly too were given priority.