Naseeruddin Shah, Aamir Khan are like ‘traitors’, says RSS leader Indresh Kumar

Hyderabad, Jul 13: Family members of Telugu poet and writer Varavara Rao, who is currently lodged in Navi Mumbai's Taloja jail in the Bhima Koregaon case, on Sunday appealed to the government for his immediate release in view of his deteriorating health.

Rao's wife P. Hemalatha and their three daughters urged the government to save his life by shifting him to a hospital or allow them to provide him with immediate medical care.

We want to remind the government that it has no right to deny the right to life of any person, much less an undertrial prisoner," they said.

His family members said they were very much worried about his deteriorating health. They said his health condition had been scary for over six weeks, ever since he was shifted in an unconscious state to JJ Hospital on May 28.

"Even as he was discharged from the hospital and sent back to jail three days later, there has been no improvement in his health and he is still in need of emergency healthcare," Hemalatha said.

"The immediate cause of concern now is that we are very much perturbed at the routine phone call we received from him on Saturday evening. Though the earlier two calls on June 24 and July 2 were also worrying with his weak and muffled voice, incoherent speech and abruptly jumping into Hindi. But the latest call, on July 11 is much more worrisome as he did not answer straight questions on his health and went into a kind of delirious and hallucinated talk about the funeral of his father and mother, the events that happened seven decades and four decades ago respectively," Rao's wife said.

She said her husband's co-accused companion took the phone from him and informed her that he is not able to walk, go to the toilet and brush his teeth on his own.

"We were also told that he is always hallucinating that we, family members, were waiting at the jail gate to receive him as he was getting released. His co-prisoner also said he needs immediate medical care for not only physical but also neurological issues. The confusion, loss of memory and incoherence are the results of electrolyte imbalance and fall of Sodium and Potassium levels leading to brain damage. This electrolyte imbalance may be fatal also."

Stating that Taloja Jail Hospital is not well equipped to handle this kind of serious ailment, they demanded that he be shifted to a fully equipped super specialty hospital to save his life and prevent possible brain damage and risk to life due to electrolyte imbalance.

"At the present juncture we are leaving aside all the pertinent facts like, that the case against him is fabricated; he had to spend 22 months in jail as an undertrial with the process turned into punishment; his bail petitions got rejected at least five times now and even the bail petitions with his age, ill-health and COVID vulnerability as grounds were ignored. His life is the top most concern for us right now. Our present demand is to save his life," the family said.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, Jun 28: Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday targeted former Congress President Rahul Gandhi, saying he was indulging in "shallow-minded" politics and making statements that make Pakistan and China happy when soldiers are fighting a spirited battle.

Shah said the government is ready for a discussion in Parliament about the situation from 1962 (when India-China war took place) and it is sad that a former president of a party making statements, which are being celebrated in Pakistan and China.

The Home Minister's comments came during an interview with ANI when he was asked about Rahul's "Surrender (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi" remarks while criticising the BJP-led government on India-China border row.

Rahul has been consistent in his criticism of the government on the handling of both Covid-19 situation and India-China border row, which escalated into a "violent face-off" earlier this month in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed.

"Let there be a robust debate in Parliament. Let us have one. Let us discuss from 1962. Nobody is scared of debate. But one should not make a statement that makes Pakistan and China happy when the soldiers are fighting a spirited battle and the government is taking strong steps," he said.

Asked whether India can handle the anti-India propaganda unleashed by Rahul's 'Surrender Modi' hashtag, he said the government is capable of handling it but it is a matter of introspection for the former Congress president and his party that their remarks are being used against the country.

Modi's remarks at an all-party meeting that no one has intruded into Indian territory triggered a controversy with a section arguing that it went against the previous statement of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.

Claiming that he could not advise Rahul as it is Congress' job to do so, he said the government has fought Covid-19 well but some people have a twisted way of seeing things. He said India fought well against Covid-19 and the statistics will speak for itself as it is much better compared to the world.

Shah said under Modi's leadership, India is going to win both the battles -- Covid-19 and India-China border row.

The Home Minister also refused to be drawn into a question on whether Chinese soldiers are holding on to Indian territory on the border at present, saying the government is doing enough to address border row with China.

"I don't want to do anything that goes against my primary aim of this interview (to highlight the steps taken to fight Covid-19 pandemic in Delhi) and create headlines that keep citizens further in fear," Shah said.

When pointed out that people are also in panic due to the border situation, he said the government has taken steps to address the situation and at an appropriate time he would make comments, if needed.

Asked about his tweets on Emergency, which was targeted by Congress asking whether there is democracy in the BJP, he countered it saying that BJP has presidents L K Advani followed by Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath again, himself and now J P Nadda.

"After Indira-ji, was there any Congress President from outside Gandhi family? What democracy do they talk about? I did not do any politics during Covid-19. You look at my tweets of the past 10 years. Every June 25, I give a statement," he said.

"Emergency should be remembered by people as it attacked the roots of our democracy. No one should ever forget it. There should be awareness about it. It is not about a party but about the attack on the country's democracy," he said.