New method to predict solar storms developed

Agencies
December 9, 2018

Kolkata, Dec 9: A team of scientists have found a way to predict the Sun's activity over the coming decades, which could help better prepare against solar storms that may cripple satellite communications and Earth's electric power grids.

In a study published in the journal Nature Communications, the team also showed that there is little possibility of a Sun-induced climate cooling in the coming year.

Researchers from Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Kolkata and Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA) Pune put forward a prediction for the upcoming sunspot cycle which reveals the expected conditions in space over the next decade. 

"This research has direct relevance for protection of India's space-based technological assets and the global climate," said Sourav Pal, Director of IISER Kolkata.

Using a novel technique devised by Professor Dibyendu Nandi from IISER Kolkata and his PhD student Prantika Bhowmik, the team predicts that the next sunspot cycle will start about a year after the end of the current cycle and peak in 2024.

They also predict that space environmental conditions over the next decade would be similar or slightly harsher compared to the last decade. 

"The space weather is governed by a constant stream of charged particles -- electrons and protons -- flowing out from the Sun and permeating the solar system," said Nandi, who is also a research associate at IUCAA.

Occasionally, the Sun releases spurts of charged winds that travel towards the Earth at astonishing speeds, he said.

These result in space storms that can cripple satellites, trip electric power grids and lead to large-scale telecommunication breakdowns.

"It has been known for some time that the cycle of sunspots control all these aspects of solar activity and determines its influence on our space environment and climate," said Bhowmik. 

Astrophysicists have been attempting for decades to devise methods to predict the future occurrence of sunspots.

Sunspots can measure up to ten times the size of Earth, with magnetic fields ten thousand times stronger.

These spots have been observed through telescopes since the times of Galileo. 

According to the researchers, the current sunspot cycle dubbed as solar cycle 24 is just ending and it has been one of the weakest cycles in a century.

In fact, over the last several decades, successive sunspot cycles have significantly weakened in strength.

This association has led to scientists to speculate a significantly weak sunspot cycle 25 or an impending disappearance of sunspots for many decades would alleviate global warming and bring down the Earth's temperature.

The research, which was supported by the Indian Ministry of Human Resource Development as well as NASA, found no evidence of an impending disappearance of sunspot cycles.

The team concluded that speculations of an imminent Sun induced cooling of global climate is very unlikely.

"The behaviour of the magnetic field, and the particles emitted from the Sun has a profound effect on the Earth's climate and living conditions of the Earth's inhabitants, as well as various other activities that involve long-range communication and satellite technology," said Somak Raychaudhury, Director of IUCAA.

"Bhowmik and Nandy's models show considerable predictive power, and it looks like we will now be able to predict the fluctuations of solar activity much more reliably," he said.

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News Network
June 18,2020

Beijing, Jun 18:  Besides washing hands and wearing masks, it is also important to close the toilet lid before flushing to contain the spread of COVID-19, as per a new study.

According to a new study cited by The Washington Post, scientists who simulated toilet water and airflows, have found that flushing a toilet can generate a plume of virus-containing aerosol particles that is widespread and can linger in the air long enough to be inhaled by others. The novel coronavirus has been found in the faeces of COVID-19 patients, but it remains unknown whether such clouds could contain enough virus to infect a person.

"Flushing will lift the virus up from the toilet bowl," co-author Ji-Xiang Wang, who researches fluids at Yangzhou University in Yangzhou, China, said in an email. Wang stressed that bathroom users "need to close the lid first and then trigger the flushing process" and wash hands properly if the closure is not possible. As one flushes the toilet with the lids open, bits of faecal matter swish around so violently that they can be propelled into the air, become aerosolised and then settle on the surroundings.

Experts call it the "toilet plume".Age-old studies have been made to understand the potential for airborne transmission of infectious disease via sewage, and the toilet plume's role. Scientists who have seeded toilet bowls with bacteria and viruses have found contamination of seats, flush handles, bathroom floors and nearby surfaces. This is one reason we are told to wash our hands after visiting the toilet. Public bathrooms are well known to contribute to the spread of viruses that transmit via ingestion, such as the noroviruses that haunt cruise ships. However, their role in the transmission of respiratory viruses has not been established, said Charles P Gerba, a microbiologist at the University of Arizona."The risk is not zero, but how great a risk it is, we do not know. The big unknown is how much virus is infectious in the toilet when you flush it ... and how much virus does it take to cause an infection," said Gerba, who has studied the intersection of toilets and infectious disease for 45 years.

A study published in March in the journal Gastroenterology found significant amounts of coronavirus in the stool of patients and determined that viral RNA lasted in faeces even after the virus cleared from the patients` respiratory tracts. While another study in the journal Lancet found coronavirus in faeces up to a month after the illness had passed.

Scientists around the world are now studying sewage to track the spread of the virus. According to the researchers, the presence of the virus in excrement and the gastrointestinal tract raises the prospect of transmission via toilets, because many COVID-19 patients experience diarrhoea or vomiting.

A study of air samples in two hospitals in Wuhan, China found that although coronavirus aerosols in isolation wards and ventilated patient rooms were very low, "it was higher in the toilet areas used by the patients".The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it remains "unclear whether the virus found in faeces may be capable of causing COVID-19," and "there has not been any confirmed report of the virus spreading from faeces to a person".For now, the CDC characterises the risk as low based on observations from previous outbreaks of other coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Wang decided to use computer models to simulate toilet plumes while isolating at home, as per Chinese government orders and thinking about how a fluids researcher "could contribute to the global fight against the virus".

Published in the journal Physics of Fluids, the study found that flushing of both single-inlet toilets, which push water into the bowl from one port, and annular-inlet toilets, which pour water into the bowl from the rim's surrounding edge with even greater energy, results in "massive upward transport of virus".

Particles can reach heights of more than three feet and float in the air for more than a minute, it found. The paper recommends not just lid-closing and hand-washing, it urges manufacturers to produce toilets that close and self-clean automatically. It also suggests that toilet-users should wipe down the seat. Gerba, however, said seats should not be a major concern.

Research has found that public and household toilet seats are typically the cleanest surfaces in restrooms, he said, probably because so many people already wipe them off before using them. Also, he said of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, "I don't think it's butt-borne, so I don`t think you have to worry."Gerba, who has been studying coronavirus transmission for two decades to investigate the role of a toilet flushing in a SARS outbreak stresses "flush and run" when using a public toilet without a lid. Gerba also said that people should wash hands well post-flushing and use hand sanitiser after leaving the restroom. "Choose well-ventilated bathrooms if possible and do not hang around the restroom in any case," added Gerba.

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Agencies
June 19,2020

Denser places, assumed by many to be more conducive to the spread of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, are not linked to higher infection rates, say researchers.

The study, led by Johns Hopkins University, published in the Journal of the American Planning Association, also found that dense areas were associated with lower COVID-19 death rates.

"These findings suggest that urban planners should continue to practice and advocate for compact places rather than sprawling ones, due to the myriad well-established benefits of the former, including health benefits," says study lead author Shima Hamidi from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the US.

For their analysis, the researchers examined SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and COVID-19 death rates in 913 metropolitan counties in the US.

When other factors such as race and education were taken into account, the authors found that county density was not significantly associated with county infection rate.

The findings also showed that denser counties, as compared to more sprawling ones, tended to have lower death rates--possibly because they enjoyed a higher level of development including better health care systems.

On the other hand, the research found that higher coronavirus infection and COVID-19 mortality rates in counties are more related to the larger context of metropolitan size in which counties are located.

Large metropolitan areas with a higher number of counties tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships are the most vulnerable to the pandemic outbreaks.

According to the researchers, recent polls suggest that many US citizens now consider an exodus from big cities likely, possibly due to the belief that more density equals more infection risk.

Some government officials have posited that urban density is linked to the transmissibility of the virus.

"The fact that density is unrelated to confirmed virus infection rates and inversely related to confirmed COVID-19 death rates is important, unexpected, and profound," said Hamidi.

"It counters a narrative that, absent data and analysis, would challenge the foundation of modern cities and could lead to a population shift from urban centres to suburban and exurban areas," Hamidi added.

The analysis found that after controlling for factors such as metropolitan size, education, race, and age, doubling the activity density was associated with an 11.3 per cent lower death rate.

The authors said that this is possibly due to faster and more widespread adoption of social distancing practices and better quality of health care in areas of denser population.

The researchers concluded that a higher county population, a higher proportion of people age 60 and up, a lower proportion of college-educated people, and a higher proportion of African Americans were all associated with a greater infection rate and mortality rate.

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Agencies
June 24,2020

New Delhi, Jun 24: The Centre has made it mandatory for sellers to enter the 'Country of Origin' while registering all new products on government e-marketplace (GeM).

The e-marketplace is a special purpose vehicle (SPV) under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry which facilitates the entry of small local sellers in public procurement, while implementing 'Make in India' and MSE Purchase Preference Policies of the Centre.

Accordingly, the ministry said the move has been made to promote 'Make in India' and 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat'.

The provision has been enabled via the introduction of new features on GeM.

Besides the registration process, the new feature also reminds sellers who have already uploaded their products, to disclose their products' 'Country of Origin' details.

The ministry further said that failing to disclose the detail will lead to removal of the products from the e-marketplace.

"GeM has taken this significant step to promote 'Make in India' and 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat'," the ministry said in a statement.

"GeM has also enabled a provision for indication of the percentage of local content in products. With this new feature, now, the 'Country of Origin' as well as the local content percentage are visible in the marketplace for all items. More importantly, the 'Make in India' filter has now been enabled on the portal. Buyers can choose to buy only those products that meet the minimum 50 per cent local content criteria."

In case of bids, the ministry said that buyers can now reserve any bid for a "Class I Local suppliers. For those bids below Rs 200 crore, only Class I and Class II Local Suppliers are eligible to bid, with Class I supplier getting purchase preference".

In addition to this, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has reportedly called for a meeting with all e-commerce companies such as Amazon and Flipkart to display the country of origin on the products sold on their platform, as well as the extent of value added in India.

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