New Saudi king seen holding line on OPEC policy to keep oil output high

January 23, 2015

New Saudi king

Singapore, Jan 23: Saudi Arabia’s new king is expected to stick to an OPEC policy of keeping oil output steady to protect the cartel’s market share from rival producers, even as energy markets face some of the biggest shifts in decades.

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah died early on Friday and his brother Salman became king, the royal court said in an official statement.

Salman has named his half-brother Muqrin as his crown prince and heir, rapidly moving to forestall any fears of a succession crisis at a moment when Saudi Arabia faces unprecedented turmoil on its borders.

The new king is expected to broadly continue Abdullah’s policies, analysts say.

“King Abdullah was the architect of the current strategy to keep production high and force out smaller players instead of cutting,” said John Kilduff, partner, Again Capital LLC in New York.

Kilduff said that Salman was known as a defender of Saudi Arabia’s interests and that the market would expect him to keep production high.

FGE analyst Tushar Bansal said: “By and large, as of now no major change is expected in Saudi policies” but he said the market would focus on whether Saudi Arabia’s oil minister might be replaced.

“Ali Al Naimi has been the oil minister since 1995.

Previously, it was reported that he expressed a desire to step down, but King Abdullah asked him to stay on for as long as he is around.

“So, the real question is, if there is a new oil minister soon, will it lead to a change in Saudi energy policy?”.

Crude oil futures initially jumped on Friday but then came off highs and were still trading at levels more than 50 per cent below their most recent peaks in June, 2014.

LAST SUCCESSION

A continuation of existing policies would be in line with what happened after the last succession. In 2005, when King Fahd died, similar concerns over Saudi Arabia’s leadership emerged.

Following the announcement of King Fahd’s death on August 1 2005, Brent rose to an all-time high of almost $61 a barrel.

Crown Prince Abdullah, who had effectively been in charge since Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995, was installed as new king and swiftly calming traders officials stressed that there would be no changes in an oil policy of keeping markets were well-supplied.

HUGE MARKET SHIFTS

Friday’s announcement of King Abdullah’s death comes amid some of the biggest shifts in oil markets in decades.

Oil prices have halved on the back of soaring supplies coupling with cooling demand due to economic slowdown in Europe and Asia, and because of improvements in energy efficiency, meaning producers are earning sharply lower revenues.

As a result, Saudi Arabia faces its first budget deficit since 2009 and it has to navigate difficulties with other OPEC members such as Oman and Venezuela, which disagree with the strategy of not defending prices.

Booming US shale production has turned the United States from the world’s biggest oil importer into a top three producer, with output topping 9 million barrel per day.

Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC announced last November it was keeping output steady at 30 million barrels per day, pulling down the Brent price by another quarter over the next month as the market digested the fact OPEC would not come to the rescue.

OPEC’s decision not to act, led by Saudi Arabia, was aimed at defending market share against US shale producers as well as other non-OPEC exporters such as Brazil or Russia.

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News Network
March 21,2020

Mar 21: Qatari authorities arrested 10 nationals for breaking home quarantine rules as Doha tightens regulations amid the coronavirus outbreak, local daily The Peninsula Qatar reported on Saturday.

The Ministry of Public Health released a statement naming the detainees and said that the violators were currently being referred to prosecution.

The tiny country, where expatriates comprise the majority of the population, on Thursday reported eight more infections to take its tally to 470, the highest number among the six Gulf Arab states that have reported a total of more than 1,300 coronavirus cases.

Government spokeswoman Lulwa Rashed Al-Khater told a news conference the new cases included two Qataris who had been in Europe, with the rest migrant workers.

Qatari authorities on Tuesday announced the closure of several square kilometers of the industrial area in Doha, the capital, which also contains labor camps and other housing units.

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News Network
March 11,2020

Riyadh, Mar 11: Energy titan Saudi Aramco said Tuesday it will boost crude oil supplies to 12.3 million barrels per day in April, flooding markets as it escalates a price war with Russia.

Riyadh had already slashed its price for April delivery after Russia refused its proposal that producer alliance OPEC+ orchestrate a co-ordinated cut of 1.5 million barrels per day.

The production cut had been mooted to shore up global oil prices, which have gone into meltdown as the deadly new coronavirus casts a pall over the world economy, but now price cuts and rising output indicate an unravelling of OPEC+ co-operation.

"Saudi Aramco announces that it will provide its customers with 12.3 million barrels per day of crude oil in April," the company said in a statement to the Saudi stock exchange.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter has been pumping some 9.8 million bpd so its announcement on Tuesday means it will be adding at least 2.5 million bpd from April.

"The Company has agreed with its customers to provide them with such volumes starting 1 April 2020. The Company expects that this will have a positive, long-term financial effect," the statement said.

Saudi Arabia says it has an output capacity of 12 million bpd but it is not known for how long it can sustain such levels.

The kingdom also has millions of barrels of crude stored in strategic reserves to be used when needed and is expected to use it to provide the extra supply to the global market.

"Production above 12 million bpd shows the Saudis have something to prove," director of Britain-based RS Energy Bill Farren-Price said.

"This is a grab for market share. The taps are open and the prices have been cut sharply," Farren-Price told AFP.

In a quick response, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow could boost production in the short term "by 200,00-300,000 bpd, with a potential of 500,000 bpd in the near future".

But he stressed that Moscow was in favour of extending a December agreement that had seen OPEC and Russia agree to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in 2020, lowering output from October 2018 levels by 1.7 million barrels per day.

The events of recent days have signalled a disintegration of collaboration between OPEC and Russia.

Russia is a non-OPEC member and the world's second-biggest oil producer, but Moscow and other non-members have in recent years co-operated with the oil cartel in an arrangement known as OPEC+.

The Saudi price cuts over the weekend, which were the first salvo in the price war, sent oil prices crashing -- registering the single biggest one-day loss in three decades on Monday.

Saudi Arabia draws around 70 per cent of its revenues from oil, and the revenues are key to ambitious reform programmes launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

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Agencies
March 15,2020

Riyadh, Mar 15: Saudi Aramco on Sunday reported a 20.6 percent drop in its net profit for 2019 due to low oil prices and production levels, the company said in a statement.

These are the first annual results to be announced by the energy giant after its historical $29.4 billion initial public offering and listing on the Saudi Tadawul market last December.

Aramco posted net profits of $88.2 billion last year compared to $111.1 billion in 2018, Monday's statement said.

"The decrease was primarily due to lower crude oil prices and production volumes, coupled with declining refining and chemical margins," it said.

The company also made $1.6 billion of impairment provisions for losses associated with Sadara Chemical Company, an Aramco subsidiary.

"2019 was an exceptional year for Saudi Aramco. Through a variety of circumstances -- some planned and some not -- the world was offered unprecedented insight into Saudi Aramco's agility and resilience," CEO Amin Nasser said.

"Our unique scale, low costs, and resilience came together to deliver both growth and world-leading returns, while also maintaining our position as one of the world's most reliable energy companies," Nasser said.

The earnings for last year are not affected by the coronavirus outbreak or the ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has sent oil prices crashing.

Aramco said it will distribute dividends worth $73.2 billion for 2019 but based on its commitments under the IPO, its dividends for the next five years starting this year will be at least $75 billion.

It said its capital spending last year dropped to $32.8 billion from $35.1 billion in 2018.

The company expects capital spending, which is expenditure on projects, to be between $25 billion and $30 billion this year "in light of current market conditions and recent commodity price volatility."

But it said that capital expenditure for 2021 and beyond is currently under review.

The results were announced amid a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia after they failed to agree on additional output cuts to support prices dented by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

"The recent COVID-19 outbreak and its rapid spread illustrate the importance of agility and adaptability in an ever-changing global landscape," Nasser said.

The kingdom said last week Aramco will pump 12.3 million barrels of oil per day, boosting output by at least 2.5 million bpd.

It also announced plans to raise production capacity from 12 million bpd to 13 million bpd.

Forecasts for future crude prices and demand are also bleak.

In its latest monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for global average daily demand by 0.92 million barrels to 99.73 million barrels.

Saudi Arabia is also in the midst of a royal purge that saw King Salman's brother and nephew detained after sources said they were accused of plotting a palace coup to unseat the crown prince, heir to the Saudi throne.

Aramco shares rallied immediately after the listing on December 11, rising by 19 percent to 38 riyals ($10.1) and temporarily lifting the company's valuation above the $2 trillion mark, which was sought by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler.

But as oil prices tumble, Aramco shares have lost 29 percent from its highest point, slipping below the listing price.

On Thursday, Aramco's market value dropped to around $1.55 trillion, but it still remains the world's largest publicly listed company.

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