New Saudi king seen holding line on OPEC policy to keep oil output high

January 23, 2015

New Saudi king

Singapore, Jan 23: Saudi Arabia’s new king is expected to stick to an OPEC policy of keeping oil output steady to protect the cartel’s market share from rival producers, even as energy markets face some of the biggest shifts in decades.

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah died early on Friday and his brother Salman became king, the royal court said in an official statement.

Salman has named his half-brother Muqrin as his crown prince and heir, rapidly moving to forestall any fears of a succession crisis at a moment when Saudi Arabia faces unprecedented turmoil on its borders.

The new king is expected to broadly continue Abdullah’s policies, analysts say.

“King Abdullah was the architect of the current strategy to keep production high and force out smaller players instead of cutting,” said John Kilduff, partner, Again Capital LLC in New York.

Kilduff said that Salman was known as a defender of Saudi Arabia’s interests and that the market would expect him to keep production high.

FGE analyst Tushar Bansal said: “By and large, as of now no major change is expected in Saudi policies” but he said the market would focus on whether Saudi Arabia’s oil minister might be replaced.

“Ali Al Naimi has been the oil minister since 1995.

Previously, it was reported that he expressed a desire to step down, but King Abdullah asked him to stay on for as long as he is around.

“So, the real question is, if there is a new oil minister soon, will it lead to a change in Saudi energy policy?”.

Crude oil futures initially jumped on Friday but then came off highs and were still trading at levels more than 50 per cent below their most recent peaks in June, 2014.

LAST SUCCESSION

A continuation of existing policies would be in line with what happened after the last succession. In 2005, when King Fahd died, similar concerns over Saudi Arabia’s leadership emerged.

Following the announcement of King Fahd’s death on August 1 2005, Brent rose to an all-time high of almost $61 a barrel.

Crown Prince Abdullah, who had effectively been in charge since Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995, was installed as new king and swiftly calming traders officials stressed that there would be no changes in an oil policy of keeping markets were well-supplied.

HUGE MARKET SHIFTS

Friday’s announcement of King Abdullah’s death comes amid some of the biggest shifts in oil markets in decades.

Oil prices have halved on the back of soaring supplies coupling with cooling demand due to economic slowdown in Europe and Asia, and because of improvements in energy efficiency, meaning producers are earning sharply lower revenues.

As a result, Saudi Arabia faces its first budget deficit since 2009 and it has to navigate difficulties with other OPEC members such as Oman and Venezuela, which disagree with the strategy of not defending prices.

Booming US shale production has turned the United States from the world’s biggest oil importer into a top three producer, with output topping 9 million barrel per day.

Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC announced last November it was keeping output steady at 30 million barrels per day, pulling down the Brent price by another quarter over the next month as the market digested the fact OPEC would not come to the rescue.

OPEC’s decision not to act, led by Saudi Arabia, was aimed at defending market share against US shale producers as well as other non-OPEC exporters such as Brazil or Russia.

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Agencies
May 7,2020

Dubai, May 7: Indians in the UAE have voiced scepticism about a "massive" operation announced by New Delhi to bring home some of the hundreds of thousands of nationals stranded by coronavirus restrictions.

"It is just propaganda," said Ishan, an Indian expatriate in Dubai, one of seven emirates in the UAE and long a magnet for foreign workers.

He was reacting to his government's announcement this week that it would deploy passenger jets and naval ships to bring home citizens stuck in a host of countries.

India's consulate in Dubai said it received about 200,000 requests from nationals seeking repatriation -- mostly workers who have lost their jobs in the pandemic.

One vessel was heading to the UAE, India's government said, while two flights were scheduled to depart the UAE for India on Thursday.

But the plans drew scorn from Ishan, who was a manager at a luxury services company before he was made redundant last month.

"It's like throwing a dog a bone," the 35-year-old complained on Wednesday, dismissing the Indian government's efforts as a drop in the ocean.

"Let's say they repatriate 400 people on the first day, and about 5,000 people in 10 days, what difference has it made?"

India banned all incoming commercial flights in late March as it imposed one of the world's strictest lockdowns to tackle the spread of coronavirus.

The UAE is home to a 3.3-million-strong Indian community, who make up around 30 per cent of the Gulf state's population.

To the anger of some Indian expatriates, the evacuees will have to pay for their passage home and spend two weeks in quarantine on arrival.

"We are upset over the failure of our government," Ishan said. "What about the people with no money? How are you helping them?"

The Indian consulate could not be reached for comment.

Ibrahim Khalil, head of the Kerala Muslim Cultural Center in Dubai, said the consulate had asked him to select 100 Indian nationals for repatriation.

"We are planning to pay for the tickets of those who cannot afford it," he said, adding that the elderly, pregnant and those suffering from illnesses were a priority.

But one Indian woman, eight months pregnant in the neighbouring emirate of Sharjah, was not one of the lucky ones chosen to go back home in one of Thursday's planned departures.

"We called them but nobody would pick up," the 26-year-old, who requested anonymity, told AFP.

She arrived in the UAE a few months ago to visit her husband, who lives in a shared apartment with another family to save money.

"We have no insurance here and the medical expenses are too costly," said the woman, who was anxious to leave to give birth at home.

"I just hope that I am chosen to go back to India. I don't know why I haven't been considered."

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News Network
May 5,2020

Abu Dhabi, May 5: The overall real GDP (gross domestic product) of the United Arab Emirates is estimated to have grown by 1.7 percent in 2019, the country’s central bank said in a statement on Monday carried by WAM.

"The UAE hydrocarbon sector is estimated to have exhibited a growth of 3.4 percent in 2019. However, non-oil activities advanced at a softer pace growing by 1.0 percent. As a result, overall real GDP is estimated by FCSA (Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority) to have grown by 1.7 percent in 2019," said the financial regulator in its Annual Report 2019.

"The spread of COVID-19 is expected to impact trade and supply chain movements, coupled with travel restrictions which paves way for high volatility in capital markets and commodity prices. While the outbreak is expected to negatively affect the global and domestic economies, it is still early to gauge the scale of the economic fallout," the report added.

The report noted that the higher hydrocarbon output, as well as growth in non-hydrocarbon economic activity, supported the pace of the country's overall economic growth in 2019.

"Meanwhile, the fading effect of VAT, the appreciating Dirham, lower energy prices and decline in rents pushed inflation in negative territory. However, the employment rate registered a steady rebound. Looking ahead, the economic outlook for 2020 remains uncertain owing to the COVID-19 outbreak," the report elaborated.

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Agencies
April 26,2020

Riyadh, Apr 26: The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia has issued an order to partially lift the curfew in all regions of the Kingdom, to become from 9am to 5pm, starting Sunday through Wednesday May 13, while keeping a 24-hour curfew in the holy city of Makkah and in previously isolated neighbourhoods, state news agency (SPA) said early on Sunday.

The order also allowed the opening of some economic and commercial activities, which include wholesale and retail shops in addition to malls.

They can operate for two weeks, beginning on April 29 (Wednesday) until May 13 (Ramadan 6-20), however, certain shops within malls like beauty clinics, barber salons, gyms, cinemas, and restaurants will continue to be restricted from reopening.

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