Zardari visit thaws India-Pak freeze

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has prepared a draft for guidelines for home quarantine, as well as for the use of masks by public, in view of coronavirus.

What to do in Home Quarantine?

The government says, for those taking refuge to home quarantine should stay in a well-ventilated single-room preferably with an attached or separate toilet. It adds that if another family member needs to stay in the same room, it's advisable to maintain a distance of at least 1 metre between the two.

The government advised, coronavirus patients to stay away from elderly people, pregnant women, children and persons with co-morbidities within the household as their immune system may be low. The health minister also suggested to restrict the patient's movement within the house. "Under no circumstances attend any social/religious gathering e.g. wedding, condolences, etc, said the guideline.

It also instructed the corona virus infected person to avoid sharing household items like dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, bedding, or other items with others at home. The guideline also demanded that even though home quarantine, the patient should wear a surgical mask at all times. "The mask should be changed every 6-8 hours and disposed off. Disposable masks are never to be reused, it added.

"Masks used by patients/ caregivers/ close contacts during home care should be disinfected using ordinary bleach solution (5 per cent) or sodium hypochlorite solution (1%) and then disposed of either by burning or deep burial," instructs the government.

Even for family members of a patient, the health ministry clearly instructs to use disposable gloves when cleaning the surfaces or handling soiled linen. No visitors, under any circumstances will be allowed, said the guideline.

"In case the person being quarantined becomes symptomatic, all his close contacts will be home quarantined (for 14 days) and followed up for an additional 14 days or till the report of such case turns out negative on lab testing," states the draft.

How to wear & dump masks?

There is a specific and elaborate do's and don'ts also released by the ministry. For those unsure in which mask to choose, it says, "Medical masks of different sizes and shapes are available in the market. The common ones are flat pleated masks of woven fabric which covers the nose and mouth and affixed behind the head with straps/ elastic fasteners. There are also conical or duck bill shaped masks with valves (or without valves) that fit in the contour of face over the nose and mouth, but are costlier."

However, the ministry warns, medical masks should not be used by healthy persons who are not having any symptoms "because it creates a false sense of security". Instead, it suggests to refrain from touching face, mouth, nose and eyes as well as washing hands regularly with soap for 20 seconds each time.

However, when a person develops a cough or fever, the suspected patient needs to switch to medical masks. "Use of medical three layer masks when ill, will prevent your infection from spreading to others. However you also need to wash your hands frequently to avoid spreading infection to others," read the guideline.

Even if one is not tested positive but showing symptoms, they are advised to wear masks while visiting a healthcare facility. "Close family contacts of such suspect/confirmed cases undergoing home care should also use Triple layer medical mask," it warns.

The ministry has also given point by point guideline on how to use a mask like to make sure that they are facing down while unfolding or for that matter to ensure there are no gaps on either side of the mask.

It even warns, "Fit flexible nose piece (a metallic strip that can easily be located) over nose-bridge" to ensure no one else are infected. The government also warns against simple dumping of the masks once used. Instead one should disinfect "using ordinary bleach solution (5 per cent) or sodium hypochlorite solution (1 per cent) and then disposed of either by burning or deep burial," says the Health Ministry.

COVID-19 emerged in early December 2019 in China's Wuhan province and has now spread to over 100 countries. As on March 9, 2020, India has reported 42 cases mostly among those who had travelled from affected countries.

However the government says, "It causes a minor illness in majority of patients with symptoms of fever and or cough. A small proportion of such persons may progress to severe disease with difficulty in breathing."

Jun 26: The Supreme Court on Friday permitted the Centre and the CBSE to cancel the remaining board examinations due to the COVID-19 pandemic and gave the go-ahead for the scheme to award marks to students for the cancelled papers scheduled to be held in July.

A bench of Justices A M Khanwilkar, Dinesh Maheshwari and Sanjiv Khanna permitted the CBSE to issue a notification for the cancellation of the examinations.

Solicitor General Tushar Mehta, appearing for the Centre and the CBSE, said that the assessment scheme would consider marks scored by students in the last three papers of the board exams.

Both CBSE and ICSE told the top court that the results of the class X and XII board exams can be declared by the middle of July.

The top court was hearing pleas seeking relief, including scrapping of remaining exams of Class 12 scheduled from July 1 to 15, in view of increasing number of COVID-19 cases. Similar relief was sought by the ICSE Board also.