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New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

Domestic flights resumed operations on a truncated schedule on Monday with the first aircraft departing from the Delhi Airport for Pune, more than two months after a nationwide lockdown was announced to combat COVID-19.

The first flight to take off was an IndiGo aircraft to Pune, flying passengers stranded in the national capital since the lockdown was announced on March 24.

Passengers were screened at the airport with electronic thermometers, and revised protocol for air travel that included santisation of luggage through ultra-violent scanners, and maintaining physical distancing.

Only asymptomatic passengers were allowed to enter the airport.

Passengers were also seen wearing face masks and face shields given to them at the embarkation point by the airline to minimise the chances of infection while onboard.

The first flight arrived at Delhi Airport from Ahmedabad – a SpiceJet aircraft – at around 8:00 am.

BJD Lok Sabha member Anubhav Mohanty was among those who took the Air Vistara flight to Bhubaneshwar that departed Delhi airport at 6:50 am.

The first flight to take off from Mumbai was an IndiGo aircraft that departed for Patna at 6:45 am, while passengers from Lucknow were the first to reach the financial capital on an IndiGo aircraft that touched down at 8:20 am.

The food & beverage and retail outlets, which were closed for the past 63 days, opened at Terminal 3 of Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport.

The flight services resumed after a day of long and hard negotiations between the Centre and the states on Sunday.

All states finally agreed to accept at least some flights but announced different quarantine and self-isolation rules for arriving passengers to address apprehension about infections being brought in from other cities.

The Centre had issued guidelines for all modes of domestic travel that advised all asymptomatic passengers to self-monitor their health parameters for 14 days on completion of the journey and report to health authorities if they displayed any symptoms for COVID-19.

However, the Centre had allowed state governments to prescribe their own health protocols for disembarking passengers which led to differential guidelines across the country.