RBI tells exporters to sell dollars to give rupee a leg up

May 11, 2012

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Mumbai, May 11: The Reserve Bank of India ordered exporters to convert half of their foreign exchange earnings kept in bank accounts into Indian rupee to prop up the worst-performing BRICS currency, a day after it closed at a record low, prompting fears of a further slide.

But the relief lasted only a few hours before the rupee resumed its decline since the order could bring in just about $3 billion, enough to cover five days of deficit.

The RBI also cut banks' intra-day positions in currency trade to five times of the net overnight open positions, which is set by the central bank as part of curbs announced on December 15. The overnight positions are not disclosed by the central bank.

More measures, including funding crude imports from foreign exchange reserves, a new US dollar mobilisation scheme, or even a sovereign dollar bond sale to boost the currency, could be on the cards, traders speculated.

The early rally faded soon with the rupee coming off highs of 52.95 to the US dollar to close at 53.44. Its all-time closing low was 53.83, on Wednesday.

Most currencies falling against dollar

Despite a series of measures from the central bank, many believe that weak macroeconomic variables such as fiscal and current account deficits, and worsening global liquidity due to deteriorating European sovereign credit crisis may diminish the effectiveness of its response.

"The RBI announced two measures that will ease, (and) slightly reverse near-term pressure on INR, but neither fixes the underlying problems that are causing INR to depreciate," said Rajiv Mallik, senior economist, CLSA Singapore. "Further, USD squeeze also has adverse implications for onshore INR liquidity."

Half the balances in the so-called Exchange Earners' Foreign Currency (EEFC) accounts should be converted into rupee balances within a fortnight and that holds true for future earnings as well, said the central bank in a notification. Exporters will be allowed to buy foreign exchange only after exhausting US dollar deposits in their accounts.

Most currencies are sliding against the greenback as global investors retreat to the safety of US dollar amid resurgence of doubts over the future of the Euro.

The rupee has been hurt more than others since India needs US dollars from outside to pay for imports as it does not export enough to pay for imports. Most big emerging countries have a surplus since they earn more US dollars from exports than needed to pay for imports.

"The facility of EEFC scheme is intended to enable exchange earners to save on conversion, transaction costs while undertaking forex transactions in future," said the central bank. "This facility is not intended to enable exchange earners to maintain assets in foreign currency, as India is still not fully convertible on capital account."

Some recent measures of the central bank are akin to its actions during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, when it ordered companies to bring in the proceeds of share sales in the form of Global Depository Receipts.

In December last year, the central bank brought in measures to curb speculation, which helped the rupee rally in the March quarter. It has reversed since due to the government's tax policies directed at overseas investors that have increased uncertainty and also because of lack of economic reforms.

With the current account deficit, the excess of imports over exports, at 4.3% of the gross domestic product and portfolio flows tapering off, the currency could be under renewed pressure if either exports do not rise sharply, or imports do not slow.

Both are unlikely now given the state of the economy. Subsidised petroleum products keep demand high, and import of gold continues due to high inflation expectation. Slowing European economies cap export growth.

Trade deficit for April stood at $13.4 billion in April, after hitting a record of $185 billion last fiscal. Exports rose 3.2% while imports grew 3.8% to $37.9 billion.

A breather could come in the form of unconventional measures, as in the past. "There could be some unconventional measures such as the IMD (India Millennium Deposits), or the RIB (Resurgent India Bonds)," said Rohit Bammi, partner at consultants KPMG. "There's a possibility of routing crude imports through foreign exchange reserves to take out the volatility."

At the turn of the century, India raised funds through the Resurgent India Bonds, and India Millennium Deposits to improve the reserves position. These involved paying high interest rates to lure overseas Indians.

Although neither the government nor the central bank has committed to such programmes, speculation is rife due to the sliding rupee. Indeed, some believe it may be the right time to float USD sovereign bonds that could bring in some fiscal discipline and also create a benchmark for Indian corporates keen to borrow overseas.

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News Network
March 20,2020

New Delhi, Mar 20: The government on Thursday said one Indian who tested positive for coronavirus has died in Iran while the other citizens infected with the disease are being provided treatment and taken care of by the Iranian government.

Noting that the virus tends to be more fatal for those whose immunity levels are low, a senior MEA official said the deceased, an elderly person, belonged to the vulnerable age group and had health-related complications.

The death was not because of lack of medical attention or care, he said.

"We have evacuated 590 people from Iran where the situation is very severe. The Indians infected with coronavirus in Iran have been segregated and taken care of very well by the government there. We believe they will recover and we will bring them back," the MEA official said, adding that 201 Indians were evacuated from Iran on Wednesday.

The official said closely knit families required some persuasion and counselling during the process of segregation to prevent the spread of the contagion.

The Indian ambassador and other officials explained the consequences of infected people not being separated from their families and were successful to a large extent in segregating the positive cases from the negative ones, he said.

"Some pilgrims and students are still there and our embassy and mission are in control (of the situation)," the official said.

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Agencies
February 25,2020

New Delhi, Feb 25: Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Tuesday called a meeting to discuss the prevailing situation in the national capital after violence in Northeast Delhi over the amended citizenship law left four people dead.

Delhi's Lieutenant Governor Anil Baijal, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and representatives of different political parties were invited for the meeting.

Follow live updates of clashes among CAA protesters in Delhi here

The home minister has convened a meeting to discuss the current situation in Delhi, a Home Ministry official said.

The move came after the home minister reviewed the law and order situation in the national capital on Monday night as violence rocked Northeast Delhi.

Frenzied protesters torched houses, shops, vehicles and a petrol pump, besides hurling stones.

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News Network
February 10,2020

New Delhi, Feb 10: Former finance minister P Chidambaram on Monday tore into the Modi government's handling of the economy, saying it was close to collapse and was been attended by "very incompetent doctors."

Initiating the debate on the Union Budget for 2020-21, he said rising unemployment and falling consumption was making India poorer.

The economy, he said, is facing demand constraints and is investment starved. The economy is facing fall in consumption and rising unemployment.

"Fear and uncertainty prevails in the country," he added.

He said the chief economic advisor to the BJP government for four years, Arvind Subramanian has stated that the economy is in the ICU. But "I would say the patient has been kept out of ICU and incompetent doctors are looking at the patient," Chidambaram said.

"It is dangerous to have a patient out of ICU and being looked upon by incompetent doctors. What is the point standing around and chanting slogan 'Sab ka saath, sab ka vishwas'," he said, adding every competent doctor the Modi government could ever identify has left the country.

His said a list of such people included former RBI governor Raghurman Rajan, former CEA Arvind Subramanian, former RBI governor Urjit Patel and former NITI Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya.

"Who are your doctors, I want to know," he said, adding the government considers Congress as untouchable and doesn't think of any good about the rest of the opposition and so doesn't consult them.

Chidambaram charged that instead of putting money in the hands of people, the Modi government "put money in hands of 200 corporates" by way of corporate tax.

He said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her 160- minute budget speech did not talk of the economy and its management.

"You are living in echo chambers. You want to hear your own voice," he said.

Listing problems with the Modi government, Chidambaram said it refuses to admits in mistakes, lives in denial and has predispositions.

The demonetisation of old 1000 and 500 rupee notes, as well as the hurried implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), are "monumental blunders" that ruined the economy, he said, adding the Modi regime is predisposed to protectionism, a 'strong' rupee and is against bilateral and multilateral agreements.

"It is living in denial," he said, adding the economic growth has fallen for hereto unseen six consecutive quarters.

He wondered on the narrative Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was trying to give after reading out a 160-minute budget speech with few pages left unread.

Her budget neither made any reference to the Economic Survey nor picked up a single idea from it, he said.

Chidambaram, who is credited with presenting a 'dream budget' more than two decades back, said the GDP growth has declined for six consecutive quarters, agriculture is growing by just 2 per cent, while consumer price inflation has risen from 1.9 per cent in January 2019 to 7.4 per cent in a matter of 11 months.

Also, food inflation is at 12.2 per cent. Bank credit is growing 8 per cent with non-food credit rising by 7-8 per cent and credit to industry by just 2.7 per cent. Credit to agriculture has declined from 18.3 per cent to 5.3 per cent and that for MSMEs from 6.7 per cent to 1.6 per cent.

Overall industrial index showed just 0.6 per cent growth. "Every major industry is either near zero or in negative zone," he said, adding thermal power plants are operating at just 55 per cent of the capacity as factories have either closed or are on the verge of closure.

"That gives you a good picture of the state of economy. You don't require MRI," he said. "You are in management for six years. How long can you blame previous managers."

He charged the government with burying unfavourable reports such as the labour survey that put unemployment at 45 -year high of 6.1 per cent at end of 2017-18. Also, consumer expenditure has falling to 3.7 per cent between 2011-12 and 2017-18.

Drilling holes in Budget numbers, he said the 2019-20 budget projected a nominal GDP growth of 12 per cent but ended with just 8.5 per cent. Fiscal deficit was targeted to be shrunk to 3.3 per cent of the GDP but ended by at 3.8 per cent and in the next fiscal it is being targeted at 3.5 per cent.

Revenue deficit was targeted at 2.3 per cent in fiscal ending March 31, 2020 but ended up at 2.4 per cent and in the next it will rise to 2.8 per cent, he said, adding capital expenditure in the next fiscal will shrink to 0.7 per cent from 1.4 per cent in the current.

Net tax revenue in the current fiscal was targeted at Rs 16.49 lakh crore but only Rs 9 lakh crore was collected in first nine months till December 2019 and "you want us to believe this will rise to Rs 15 lakh crore by March 2020," he said.

Similarly, expenditure in 2019-20 was pegged at Rs 27.86 lakh crore but only Rs 11.78 lakh crore spent during April- December and by March this is projected to rise to Rs 27 lakh crore.

"You have no money to spend... and these are masked by numbers," he said. "Numbers are not easily acceptable or believable."

Chidambaram said the government is facing shortfall in all forms of taxes - Rs 1.56 lakh crore on corporate tax, Rs 10,000 crore on personal income tax, Rs 30,000 crore on customs, Rs 52,000 crore on excise and Rs 51,000 crore on GST.

This despite "the extraordinary powers" and "all kinds of power" given to lower level tax officials, he said.

He read of list of heads under which allocation has fallen - food subsidy, agriculture, PM-Kisan, rural roads, mid-day meal scheme, ICDS, skill development, Ayushman Bharat, rural development and MGNEGA.

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