RBI tells exporters to sell dollars to give rupee a leg up

May 11, 2012

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Mumbai, May 11: The Reserve Bank of India ordered exporters to convert half of their foreign exchange earnings kept in bank accounts into Indian rupee to prop up the worst-performing BRICS currency, a day after it closed at a record low, prompting fears of a further slide.

But the relief lasted only a few hours before the rupee resumed its decline since the order could bring in just about $3 billion, enough to cover five days of deficit.

The RBI also cut banks' intra-day positions in currency trade to five times of the net overnight open positions, which is set by the central bank as part of curbs announced on December 15. The overnight positions are not disclosed by the central bank.

More measures, including funding crude imports from foreign exchange reserves, a new US dollar mobilisation scheme, or even a sovereign dollar bond sale to boost the currency, could be on the cards, traders speculated.

The early rally faded soon with the rupee coming off highs of 52.95 to the US dollar to close at 53.44. Its all-time closing low was 53.83, on Wednesday.

Most currencies falling against dollar

Despite a series of measures from the central bank, many believe that weak macroeconomic variables such as fiscal and current account deficits, and worsening global liquidity due to deteriorating European sovereign credit crisis may diminish the effectiveness of its response.

"The RBI announced two measures that will ease, (and) slightly reverse near-term pressure on INR, but neither fixes the underlying problems that are causing INR to depreciate," said Rajiv Mallik, senior economist, CLSA Singapore. "Further, USD squeeze also has adverse implications for onshore INR liquidity."

Half the balances in the so-called Exchange Earners' Foreign Currency (EEFC) accounts should be converted into rupee balances within a fortnight and that holds true for future earnings as well, said the central bank in a notification. Exporters will be allowed to buy foreign exchange only after exhausting US dollar deposits in their accounts.

Most currencies are sliding against the greenback as global investors retreat to the safety of US dollar amid resurgence of doubts over the future of the Euro.

The rupee has been hurt more than others since India needs US dollars from outside to pay for imports as it does not export enough to pay for imports. Most big emerging countries have a surplus since they earn more US dollars from exports than needed to pay for imports.

"The facility of EEFC scheme is intended to enable exchange earners to save on conversion, transaction costs while undertaking forex transactions in future," said the central bank. "This facility is not intended to enable exchange earners to maintain assets in foreign currency, as India is still not fully convertible on capital account."

Some recent measures of the central bank are akin to its actions during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, when it ordered companies to bring in the proceeds of share sales in the form of Global Depository Receipts.

In December last year, the central bank brought in measures to curb speculation, which helped the rupee rally in the March quarter. It has reversed since due to the government's tax policies directed at overseas investors that have increased uncertainty and also because of lack of economic reforms.

With the current account deficit, the excess of imports over exports, at 4.3% of the gross domestic product and portfolio flows tapering off, the currency could be under renewed pressure if either exports do not rise sharply, or imports do not slow.

Both are unlikely now given the state of the economy. Subsidised petroleum products keep demand high, and import of gold continues due to high inflation expectation. Slowing European economies cap export growth.

Trade deficit for April stood at $13.4 billion in April, after hitting a record of $185 billion last fiscal. Exports rose 3.2% while imports grew 3.8% to $37.9 billion.

A breather could come in the form of unconventional measures, as in the past. "There could be some unconventional measures such as the IMD (India Millennium Deposits), or the RIB (Resurgent India Bonds)," said Rohit Bammi, partner at consultants KPMG. "There's a possibility of routing crude imports through foreign exchange reserves to take out the volatility."

At the turn of the century, India raised funds through the Resurgent India Bonds, and India Millennium Deposits to improve the reserves position. These involved paying high interest rates to lure overseas Indians.

Although neither the government nor the central bank has committed to such programmes, speculation is rife due to the sliding rupee. Indeed, some believe it may be the right time to float USD sovereign bonds that could bring in some fiscal discipline and also create a benchmark for Indian corporates keen to borrow overseas.

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March 24,2020

New Delhi, Mar 24: Thirty-two states and Union Territories (UTs) have announced complete lockdown to check the spread of the coronavirus in the country, informed the Central government on Tuesday.
There is a complete lockdown in as many as 560 districts of the country affecting several hundred million people.
Earlier, the complete lockdown was imposed in 30 districts, as of now, almost the entire country is in lockdown to restrict public movement in an attempt to break the chain of transmission of coronavirus.
Three states -- Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha -- have announced lockdown in select districts with the governments continuously monitoring the situation and ready to extend the restrictions to other districts as well.
The Union Territory of Lakshadweep has announced restrictions on certain activities.
The Indian Railways has suspended all passenger train operations till March 31 in view of coronavirus.

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News Network
June 18,2020

New Delhi, Jun 18: The border clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers in Ladakh broke the brittle quiet – and also the sense of security for anxious Chinese nationals in India who fear a backlash with anti-Chinese sentiment spiralling in the country.

With the high altitude violent face-off in eastern Ladakh’s Galwan Valley spurring hashtags such as “Boycott China” and “Teach Lesson to China” and leading to street protests, the undercurrents of tension were evident.

Wary of being identified, some said they had been reassured by their friends but were still apprehensive for themselves and their families.

"They (Chinese families) don''t want to speak to the media. They are not going out and are worried about their security and well being. Their families are also worried back home," Mohammed Saqib, secretary general of the India China Economic & Cultural Council, told PTI.

He added that his Chinese friends in India been calling him since they heard news about Monday night’s clashes in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed -- the worst military confrontation in five decades -- and expressed concern over growing anti-China sentiments.

A Chinese national from Beijing working in Gurgaon for a Chinese mobile firm initially refused to talk, saying he did not want to speak to the media and later shared his thoughts only on condition of anonymity.

"There is talk of border standoff and tensions, but we know Indians are very warm people and that is why I have told my family that all is fine here and they should not worry," he said.

Another Chinese national working in Gurgaon said he and his family are feeling the stress amid the spiralling conflict between India and China, but many friends have been reassuring him.

"They (Chinese in India) are under a lot of stress naturally. Such a conflict puts a lot of stress as they could bear the brunt and the same applies to Indians in China," B R Deepak, professor at the Centre for Chinese and South East Asian Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University said.

He said it was unfortunate that the border standoff derailed the commemorative programmes aimed at strengthening ties at a time the two countries were gearing to celebrate 70 years of establishment of diplomatic ties.

Experts also feel the border clash is likely to have a significant negative impact on the economic and people to people ties.

There are scores of Chinese in India working in various Chinese firms and also those who are studying in universities like JNU.

About 3,000 Chinese people, doing business or studying in big cities in India, were stranded in India at the start of the COVID-19 crisis, and about half of them returned to China before the lockdown began on March 25.

The Chinese Embassy in New Delhi announced on May 25 that they will arrange for flights to take back students, tourists and businesspersons to five Chinese cities, including Shanghai and Guangzhou.

"It will impact the psychology of the Chinese here. There are 2,000 Chinese firms in various sectors in India which are going to be impacted," Deepak said.

Future investments from the Chinese side could also be impacted, he said.

Moreover, as far as people-to-people contacts are concerned, the number of Chinese students choosing India as a preferred destination is likely to go down, Deepak said.

Alka Acharya, another China expert, said there are two kinds of impacts of such an incident -- short term and medium term.

Usually after the initial nationalistic reaction in the short term things tend to normalise in the medium term, but with such a border clash happening for the first time in decades clearly the resonance would be much more in both India and China, said Acharya, professor at the Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, in JNU.

“Due to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy, whether India can take a hardline in terms of economics towards China, is a tricky question,” she said.

In the immediate context, there may be a dip in economic ties with calls for boycott of Chinese goods and services, Acharya said.

The manner in which this crisis is resolved will affect how ties will be affected in the medium term, she said.

The headlines have added to the anxiety.

A group of ex-armymen gathered near the Chinese embassy to protest the killing of 20 Indian Army personnel in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley. And another group of around 10 protesters belonging to the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch protested near the Teen Murti roundabout in Central Delhi.

The anti-China sentiment prevalent among the common public is also finding a reflection in government policy with sources saying the Department of Telecom (DoT) is set to ask state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) not to use Chinese telecom gear in its 4G upgradation.

Trade bodies like CAIT are also calling for a boycott of Chinese products.

And Chinese handset maker Oppo cancelled the livestream launch of its flagship 5G smartphone in the country amid protests.

Monday night’s clashes between the Chinese and Indian troops in Galwan Valley significantly escalated the already volatile border standoff between the two countries.

The casualties on the Chinese side are not yet known. However, government sources, citing an American intelligence report, claimed the total number of soldiers killed and seriously wounded could be 35.

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News Network
February 24,2020

New Delhi, Feb 24: They hail from vastly different backgrounds — Donald Trump is the son of a property tycoon while Narendra Modi is a descendant of a poor tea-seller.

Yet the two teetotallers, loved by right-wing nationalists in their home countries, share striking similarities that have seen them forge a close personal bond, analysts say.

Ahead of the American leader's first official visit to India, which begins in Modi's home state of Gujarat on Monday, the world's biggest democracy has gone out of its way to showcase the chemistry between them.

In Gujarat's capital Ahmedabad, large billboards with the words "two dynamic personalities, one momentous occasion" and "two strong nations, one great friendship" have gone up across the city.

"There's a lot that Trump and Modi share in common, and not surprisingly these convergences have translated into a warm chemistry between the two," Michael Kugelman of the Washington-based Wilson Center said.

"Personality politics are a major part of international diplomacy today. The idea of closed-door dialogue between top leaders has often taken a backseat to very public and spectacle-laden summitry."

Since assuming the top political office in their respective countries — Modi in 2014 and Trump in 2017 — the two men have been regularly compared to each other.

Trump, 73, and Modi, 69, both command crowds of adoring flag-waving supporters at rallies. A virtual cult of personality has emerged around them, with their faces and names at the centre of their political parties' campaigns.

A focus of Trump's administration has been his crackdown on migrants, including a travel ban that affects several Muslim-majority nations, among others, while critics charge that Modi has sought to differentiate Muslims from other immigrants through a contentious citizenship law that has sparked protests.

Both promote their countries' nationalist and trade protectionist movements — Trump with his "America First" clarion call and Modi with his "Make in India" mantra.

And while they head the world's largest democracies, critics have described the pair as part of a global club of strongmen that includes Russia's Vladimir Putin and Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro.

"There are many qualities that Trump and Modi share — a love for political grandstanding and an unshakable conviction that they can achieve the best solutions or deals," former Indian diplomat Rakesh Sood said.

Modi and Trump have sought to use their friendship to forge closer bonds between the two nations, even as they grapple with ongoing tensions over trade and defence.

Despite sharing many similarities in style and substance, analysts say there are some notable differences between the pair.

Modi is an insider who rose through the ranks of the Bharatiya Janata Party after starting out as a cadre in Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

Trump is a businessman and a political outsider who has in some sense taken over the Republican Party.

"Modi is a more conventional leader than is Trump in that he hasn't sought to revolutionise the office he holds in the way that Trump has," said Kugelman, a longtime observer of South Asian politics.

He added that genuine personal connections between leaders of both countries have helped to grow the partnership.

"George Bush and Manmohan Singh, Barack Obama and Singh, Obama and Modi, now Modi and Trump — there has been a strong chemistry in all these pairings that has clearly helped the relationship move forward," he added.

Trump has also stood by the Indian leader during controversial decisions, including his revocation of autonomy for Kashmir and his order for jets to enter Pakistani territory following a suicide bombing.

Analysts said the leaders would use the visit to bolster their image with voters.

A mega "Namaste Trump" rally in Ahmedabad on Monday will be modelled after the "Howdy, Modi" Houston extravaganza last year when the Indian leader visited the US and the two leaders appeared before tens of thousands of Indian-Americans at a football stadium.

"The success of this visit... will have a positive impact on his (Trump's) re-election campaign and the people of Indian origin who are voters in the US — a majority of them are from Gujarat," former Indian diplomat Surendra Kumar said.

"On the Indian side, the fact that Prime Minister Modi... (shares) such warmth, bonhomie and informality with the most powerful man on Earth adds to his stature... as well as with hardcore supporters."

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