Rupee marks lowest level as investors flee

May 22, 2012

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Mumbai, May 22: India's rupee fell past 55 per dollar to a record low as concern Europe's debt crisis will worsen prompted investors to pull money out of emerging-market assets.

"It has been touching lows quite regularly, said Subir Gokarn, a deputy governor at the Reserve Bank of India. "There is clearly a strong pressure on the rupee to depreciate. This is coming from a number of factors. One is clearly the current account deficit, demand from oil has been strong and the capital flows are not matching that," he said.

"We have done a number of things and will continue to do things that we think will have the impact of stabilizing the currency. But ultimately capital flows are going to be the main determinant of how the currency behaves.''

Sweeping declines

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares lost 10 per cent this month as global funds pulled $6.2 billion (Dh22.76 billion) from the stock markets of India, Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan, according to the latest exchange data.

German and French leaders meet this week to discuss a revised plan for the euro amid concern Greece is close to an exit from the monetary union. The rupee is also weakening because India's fiscal policy is "too loose" and that is widening the current-account deficit and spurring inflation, according to BNP Paribas.

"An improvement in the situation in Europe and firmer global risk appetite is a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for the rupee to stabilise," Richard Iley, the Hong- Kong based chief economist for Asia at the French bank, wrote in a research note released yesterday. "Fiscal laxity is the root of the problem."

The rupee dropped 1.1 per cent to 55.0350 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched an all-time low of 55.0550 and has slumped 7.6 per cent this quarter in Asia's worst currency performance.

India's budget deficit widened to 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ended March 31, compared with a target of 4.6 per cent. finance minister Pranab Mukherjee aims to narrow the shortfall to 5.1 per cent this fiscal year.

Rising volatility

The rupee's one-month implied volatility, a measure of exchange-rate swings used to price options, was unchanged at 13 per cent. It touched this year's high of 13.27 per cent on May 18.

The central bank cut the amount of overseas income companies can hold in foreign currency this month to 50 per cent from 100 per cent, in a bid to boost dollar inflows and stem the rupee's slide.

On May 4, policy makers raised interest rates on non-rupee deposits by as much as 300 basis points and freed up borrowing costs on foreign-exchange loans to exporters.

Gold: Debt crisis dims allure

Gold declined in New York as concerns that Europe's debt crisis is worsening boosted the dollar and curbed the appeal of precious metals as alternative investments.

The euro fell as much as 0.4 per cent against the dollar as German and French officials meet today to discuss ways to contain Europe's financial turmoil. Before today, gold declined 4.3 per cent this month, while the dollar climbed 3.2 per cent against a basket of six currencies.

"The flight is towards the dollar," Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. "The softness in the euro is keeping gold under pressure."

Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.3 per cent to $1,587.70 an ounce at 10:01 am on the Comex in New York.

Demand for bullion in India, the world's largest consumer, dropped to the weakest since late March on May 18, UBS said in an emailed report on Monday.

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Agencies
June 6,2020

Ahmedabad, June 6: Rattled by resignations of three MLAs ahead of the June 19 Rajya Sabha polls, the Congress in Gujarat on Saturday shifted several of its legislators to resorts and bungalows near their constituencies to thwart any "poaching" bid, a party leader said.

With the resignations of Akshay Patel and Jitu Chaudhary on June 3 and that of Brijesh Merja on June 5, the Congress' strength in the 182-member House has been reduced to 65.

The effective strength of the House, however, stands at 172 as of now as ten seats are currently vacant - two due to court cases and the rest because of resignations.

While several MLAs from north Gujarat were shifted to a resort near Ambaji in Banaskantha district, those from south and Central Gujarat were moved to private bungalows in Anand, Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi said, adding that legislators from Saurashtra region were shifted to a resort in Rajkot.
 

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Agencies
May 17,2020

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

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Agencies
August 4,2020

New Delhi, Aug 4: Over 50 per cent of COVID-19 deaths in India have taken place among people aged 60 years and above and 37 per cent deaths have been reported among patients in the age group of 45 to 60 years, Health Ministry said on Tuesday.

Addressing a press conference, Rajesh Bhushan, Secretary, Health Ministry said that 11 per cent COVID-19 deaths took place in the age group of 26 to 44.

The 18 to 25 age group and those below 18 years reported one per cent deaths each.
"Currently, 5,86,298 active COVID-19 cases are in India and over 12 lakh people have recovered.

50 per cent deaths due to COVID19 have taken place among the age group of 60 years or above and 37 per cent deaths took place in the age group between 45 to 60 years," Bhushan said.

"A total of 11 per cent COVID-19 deaths took place in the age group of 26 to 44. Only 1 per cent in 18 to 25 age group and 1 per cent in below the age of 18 years," he added.

Bhushan said that 68 per cent of COVID-19 deaths have been reported among male patients and 32 per cent among female patients which is broadly in line with the global scenario.

The number of recovered COVID-19 patients in India is increasing daily and is now over double the number of active cases.

Bhushan said that the case fatality rate (CFR) is lowest since the first lockdown.

"More than 2 crore COVID-19 tests have been conducted, including more than 6.6 lakh tests in the last 24 hours. Recovered cases are now double of the active cases. 

The case fatality rate (CFR) is lowest since the first lockdown," he said
"This is the first time after the first lockdown that the fatality rate is at the lowest, at 2.10 per cent. The fatality rate has seen a progressive decline and it is continuing, which is a good sign," he added.

According to the World Health Organisation, CFR is a measure of the severity of a disease and is defined as the proportion of reported cases of a specified disease or condition which are fatal within a specified time.

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