Rupee marks lowest level as investors flee

May 22, 2012

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Mumbai, May 22: India's rupee fell past 55 per dollar to a record low as concern Europe's debt crisis will worsen prompted investors to pull money out of emerging-market assets.

"It has been touching lows quite regularly, said Subir Gokarn, a deputy governor at the Reserve Bank of India. "There is clearly a strong pressure on the rupee to depreciate. This is coming from a number of factors. One is clearly the current account deficit, demand from oil has been strong and the capital flows are not matching that," he said.

"We have done a number of things and will continue to do things that we think will have the impact of stabilizing the currency. But ultimately capital flows are going to be the main determinant of how the currency behaves.''

Sweeping declines

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares lost 10 per cent this month as global funds pulled $6.2 billion (Dh22.76 billion) from the stock markets of India, Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan, according to the latest exchange data.

German and French leaders meet this week to discuss a revised plan for the euro amid concern Greece is close to an exit from the monetary union. The rupee is also weakening because India's fiscal policy is "too loose" and that is widening the current-account deficit and spurring inflation, according to BNP Paribas.

"An improvement in the situation in Europe and firmer global risk appetite is a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for the rupee to stabilise," Richard Iley, the Hong- Kong based chief economist for Asia at the French bank, wrote in a research note released yesterday. "Fiscal laxity is the root of the problem."

The rupee dropped 1.1 per cent to 55.0350 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched an all-time low of 55.0550 and has slumped 7.6 per cent this quarter in Asia's worst currency performance.

India's budget deficit widened to 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ended March 31, compared with a target of 4.6 per cent. finance minister Pranab Mukherjee aims to narrow the shortfall to 5.1 per cent this fiscal year.

Rising volatility

The rupee's one-month implied volatility, a measure of exchange-rate swings used to price options, was unchanged at 13 per cent. It touched this year's high of 13.27 per cent on May 18.

The central bank cut the amount of overseas income companies can hold in foreign currency this month to 50 per cent from 100 per cent, in a bid to boost dollar inflows and stem the rupee's slide.

On May 4, policy makers raised interest rates on non-rupee deposits by as much as 300 basis points and freed up borrowing costs on foreign-exchange loans to exporters.

Gold: Debt crisis dims allure

Gold declined in New York as concerns that Europe's debt crisis is worsening boosted the dollar and curbed the appeal of precious metals as alternative investments.

The euro fell as much as 0.4 per cent against the dollar as German and French officials meet today to discuss ways to contain Europe's financial turmoil. Before today, gold declined 4.3 per cent this month, while the dollar climbed 3.2 per cent against a basket of six currencies.

"The flight is towards the dollar," Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. "The softness in the euro is keeping gold under pressure."

Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.3 per cent to $1,587.70 an ounce at 10:01 am on the Comex in New York.

Demand for bullion in India, the world's largest consumer, dropped to the weakest since late March on May 18, UBS said in an emailed report on Monday.

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Agencies
July 13,2020

Jaipur, Jul 13: Congress Legislature Party (CLP) on Monday unanimously passed a resolution supporting Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot-led government and accusing the BJP of destabilising the government by indulging in horse-trading of MLAs.

The CLP also condemned all "undemocratic" acts to weaken Congress party and its government and demanded action against any Congress office-bearers involved in anti-party activities.

"Feared by exemplary works and public service of Congress government, BJP-led conspiracy is trying to destabilise Congress' state government, horse-trading of MLAs and trying to murder democracy by using money and political power," read the resolution.

"It is unfortunate that BJP did not learn lessons from the defeat in the Rajya Sabha elections and are trying to destabilise Congress government using corrupt means. 

This ripping off of democracy by BJP is an insult to 8 crore people of Rajasthan, they will not accept it. CLP meet expresses its confidence in Congress President Sonia Gandhi and leader Rahul Gandhi, and unanimously supports the government led by Ashok Gehlot," it said.

"This meet urges that strict disciplinary action be taken against any office-bearer or member of Legislative Party who indulges in activities against the Congress government, party or gets involved in any conspiracy," read the resolution.

As many as 107 MLAs attended the CLP meeting, which begun in the afternoon and now has been concluded.

"107 MLAs are present at the CLP meeting in Jaipur," Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's media advisor confirmed to media.

The crisis in Rajasthan Congress intensified with Gehlot and his deputy Sachin Pilot at loggerheads. While Gehlot is blaming BJP for trying to destabilise the state government by poaching MLAs, Pilot is camping in Delhi to speak to the party leadership regarding the political turmoil in the state.

BJP has claimed that the Ashok Gehlot-led government has lost the majority in the state.

"Sachin Pilot was the rightful candidate for the post of Rajasthan Chief Minister but Ashok Gehlot took the charge; a conflict in the party began since then. What is happening today is the result of that conflict. The state government has lost the majority," Rajasthan BJP President Satish Punia said today.

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News Network
January 24,2020

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

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Agencies
March 6,2020

Thiruvananthapuram, Mar 6: A 12-member team from Telangana on Friday visited Kerala to study how the state contained the spread of novel coronavirus.

Interacting with the team, Kerala Health Minister KK Shailaja said, "The team will be given a presentation at National Health Mission and they will visit Alappuzha district to know how the health facilities are set up by Kerala Health Department on the grassroots level."

"The team comprising doctors and senior health officials will visit the control room set up by the Health Department and also will attend daily review meetings. They will also visit an isolation ward in the hospital and interact with doctors and nurses, " the minister said.

She added, "Kerala model is being followed by other states too. All states are working together and the country as a whole is fighting the coronavirus. They are sharing our experience. All of India is standing together. Contact tracing and isolation is the most important part."

Dr Mahaboob Khan, part of the Telangana team told media persons, that the discussion with the health minister was fruitful.

"Kerala was the first state in India where a positive coronavirus case was reported. All three positive cases reported have been discharged after testing negative. So we wanted to study how Kerala was able to contain it and the health system in place here, " he said.

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