Ansari is UPA’s choice for Vice-President

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

New Delhi, Feb 5: Kapil Baisala who opened fired at the Shaheen Bagh protest site last week is a member of the Aam Aadmi Party, police said on Tuesday, sparking a war of words between the BJP and the AAP.

While the BJP accused Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal of "playing" with the security of the country, the AAP hit back, stating the saffron party was indulging "dirty politics".

Deputy Commissioner of Police (Crime Branch) Rajesh Deo said that Baisala and his father joined the AAP in early 2019.

Baisala's family, however, refuted the police's claim.

Kapil Baisala's uncle Fatesh Singh told PTI, "I have no idea where these photographs are circulating from. My nephew Kapil had no association with any political party nor does any other member from the family. My brother, Gaje Singh, (Baisala's father) fought assembly elections in 2008 on a Bahujan Samaj Party ticket and lost. After that no one from our family had any links with any political party."

Singh added that Baisala also doesn't have friends associated with the AAP or any other political party.

Gaje had also contested the 2012 civic body polls from the BSP, the police said.

The police officer said they seized Baisala's mobile phone and retrieved WhatsApp data.

On Saturday, Baisala fired two rounds in air at Shaheen Bagh. According to eyewitnesses, the man shouted "Hindu Rashtra Zindabad" and fired two rounds.

He was overpowered by the police and later arrested.

In the pictures, it was seen that he and his father joined the party in the presence of Atishi Marlena, Sanjay Singh and other leaders, sources said.

The police said on Thursday, Baisala, along with his friend Sarthak Larolla, went to Shaheen Bagh from his village on a bike.

Through CCTV footage, it was found they took the DND flyover, Maharani Bagh, Sarai Jullena and reached Holy Family hospital, a senior police officer said.

"Baisala was not comfortable on the bike as he had hidden the pistol near his waist. They entered the hospital's parking where he adjusted the pistol, used the washroom and headed towards Shaheen Bagh," the senior official added.

When they reached the protest site, Larolla left the spot with the motorcycle and Baisala's mobile phone. Later, Baisala fired two rounds in the air and was apprehended. The weapon was recovered from near the spot, the police said.

Larolla joined the investigation and the mobile phone was seized from his residence.

Baisala has been remanded to police remand for two days.

He had bought the pistol around seven years ago for his brother's marriage. The source of the weapon from where he procured it is yet to identified, police said.

The sources said Baisala was previously also involved in firing incident but was never caught nor was a case registered against him.

Hitting out at the AAP, BJP president J P Nadda accused Kejriwal of playing with the security of the country and said that the people will give the party a befitting reply.

"I want to make clear to Kejriwal that this country is bigger than any election, any government, and the country will not forgive those who play with its security. The people of Delhi will give a befitting reply," Nadda tweeted.

Senior AAP leader Sanjay Singh asked on whose directions was the Delhi Police accusing his party.

"Before the police revealed it (Baisala being an AAP member), how did BJP's Delhi president Manoj Tiwari come to know about it," Singh asked and accused the police of maligning the party.

New Delhi, Feb 11: AAP leader Sanjay Singh on Tuesday said his party will register a "massive win" in the high-stakes Delhi Assembly election, counting for which began amid tight security at various centres set up to carry out the exercise.

Initial trends suggested the ruling Aam Aadmi Party marching ahead, but the Bharatiya Janata Party leaders maintained that their party would win.

The counting began at 8 am and will be held in multiple rounds, Delhi Chief Electoral Officer Ranbir Singh said.