Fresh clashes rock lower Assam

May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

New Delhi, Jun 18: Major General-level talks between India and China, held to resolve the issues related to the violent face-off in Ladakh's Galwan area on June 15-16, lasted for more than six hours on Thursday, sources said.

The talks between the Major Generals of the two countries had remained inconclusive on Wednesday.

Sources also said that all Indian Army personnel who were involved in Galwan valley violent face-off on June 15-16 are accounted for and no soldier is missing in action.

At least 20 Indian Army personnel, including a Colonel rank officer, had lost their lives in the violent face-off which happened in the Galwan valley as a result of an attempt by the Chinese troops to unilaterally change the status quo during the de-escalation in eastern Ladakh.

Indian intercepts have revealed that the Chinese side suffered 43 casualties including dead and seriously injured in the violent clash. The commanding officer of the Chinese unit is among those killed, sources confirmed to media persons.

India wants restoration of old status quo along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) prevailing before May 2020 when the first reports of Chinese incursions started appearing.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had on Wednesday conveyed a clear and tough message to his Chinese counterpart Foreign Minister Wang Yi that what happened in Galwan was a "pre-mediated and planned action that was directly responsible for the resulting violence and casualties."

New Delhi, Apr 20: The Centre on Monday said that India's COVID-19 doubling rate has improved to 7.5 days from 3.4 days before the lockdown was enforced to check the spread of the coronavirus.

"India's doubling rate before the lockdown was 3.4 days. It has now improved to 7.5 days. As per data on April 19, in 18 States, the rate is better than the national average," said Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary, Union Health and Family Welfare Ministry, at a daily briefing here.

"The number of districts where no case has been reported in the last 14 days has increased to 59 in 23 States and UTs. Goa is now COVID-19 free," he said.

India's total number of coronavirus positive cases has risen to 17,656 including 14,255 active cases, 2,842 cured/discharged/migrated and 559 deaths, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

"Mahe in Puducherry, Kodagu in Karnataka and Pauri Garhwal in Uttarakhand have not reported any COVID-19 case in last 28 days," said Agarwal.

Let us take a look at the top developments of the day regarding the COVID-19 situation in the country:

1. There are 23 active COVID-19 cases in Himachal Pradesh. 11 patients have recovered, four migrated out of the State and one person succumbed to the disease. A total of 2,902 people have been tested for COVID-19 so far, said Himachal Pradesh Health Department.

2. The number of COVID-19 cases has risen to 408 in Karnataka including 16 deaths and 112 discharges, according to the state Health Department. 18 new cases have been reported in the last 24 hours.

3. "14 new COVID-19 cases reported, all from Kashmir. The total number of cases now stands at 368, Jammu-55 and Kashmir-313," said Rohit Kansal, Principal Secretary, Planning, Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir administration.

4. According to Punya Salila Srivastava, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Home Affairs, the Ministry wrote to Kerala government yesterday, expressing concerns over modified guidelines regarding lockdown. "Kerala has allowed some activities that violate the Ministry's instructions issued under the Disaster Management Act," she said.

5. Five more police personnel from Chandni Mahal police station have tested positive for COVID-19. Till now eight personnel from the police station have tested positive for the virus, according to the Delhi Police.

6. Total 57 new COVID19 cases and two deaths have been reported today. Cumulative positive cases now stand at 1,535, and toll at 25, said Rajasthan's Health Department.

7. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has said that RTPCR kits are US FDA approved and have good standards and these should be stored under 20-degree temperature for better result.

8. "A total of 283 more COVID-19 cases have been reported in Maharashtra, taking cumulative positive cases in the State to 4,483, as of 11 am today. Of the 283 new cases, Mumbai has recorded 187," said Rajesh Tope, Maharashtra Health Minister.

9. One new COVID-19 positive case was reported today in Bokaro, taking the total number of cases in the State to 42, said Nitin Madan Kulkarni, Jharkhand's Health Secretary.
10. According to Punjab's Health Department, only one person has been tested positive for COVID-19 in the State today. The person is a contact of the COVID-19 patient.

11. "There is only one red zone district in Chhattisgarh. For the last 72 hours, no COVID-19 positive patient has been found even in that red zone district. I am hoping that whole of Chhattisgarh will be green zone soon," said Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel.

12. Six new COVID-19 cases were reported in Kerala, all from Kannur, of which 5 have foreign travel history. Total cases in the State at 408, including 114 active cases, said Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

Meanwhile, the Centre has constituted six Inter-Ministerial Central Teams (IMCTs), two each for West Bengal and Maharashtra and one each for Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to make an on-spot assessment of the situation and issue necessary directions to the state authorities for their redressal and submit a report to the Central government in the larger interest of the general public.