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New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

Kashmir, Mar 3: Four days after the National Investigation Agency made a major breakthrough in the Pulwama terror attack case over a year after the bombing, arresting one person who had sheltered the suicide bomber Adil Ahmad Dar, the NIA on Tuesday arrested two more people in the case - a father-daughter duo - who had also provided shelter to the bomber, officials said.

The NIA also claimed that the video of the suicide bomber was also recorded at their residence and released by the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terror group from Pakistan after the attack. An NIA spokesperson in Delhi said: "Two more persons have been arrested by the agency in the Pulwama terror attack case and they have been identified as Insha Jan, 23, and her father Tariq Ahmed Shah, 50, who works as a tipper driver."

The official said that the father-daughter duo have been arrested from Hakripora area in Pulwama for their involvement in the attack. The two were arrested on early Tuesday morning after senior officials of the NIA raided their house on Monday night.

A senior NIA official related to the probe told IANS: "The video of Dar, who attacked the CRPF convoy, was recorded at the home of the duo. And the same video was released soon after the Pulwama terror attack by the JeM terrorists from a Pakistani IP address."

He said, "The video was shared by them to their handlers in Pakistan."

The spokesperson further claimed that during the probe Tariq Ahmed Shah disclosed that his house in Hakripora area was used by Dar, Mohammad Umar Farooq, a Pakistani terrorist and IED maker, Kamran - another Pakistani terrorist (both were later killed in encounters with security forces), Sameer Ahmed Dar, a Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist from Pulwama and Mohammad Ismail aka Ibrahim, a Pakistani terrorist.

The spokesperson said that Shah facilitated all the terrorists at his house for sheltering and for planning of the heinous attack on the CRPF convoy. He said Jan, daughter of Shah, facilitated the terrorists at their home and provided food and other logistics during their stay on more than 15 occasions for two to four days each time, in their house during the year 2018-2019.

"Initial interrogation has revealed that Jan was in constant touch with Farooq and was in communication with him over telephone and other social media applications," the spokesperson said. The fresh arrests of the two accused brings the total number of arrests in the case to three.

The arrests were made on the revelations of Shakir Bashir Magrey, who was arrested by the anti-terror probe agency on February 28. According to senior NIA officials, more arrests will be made in the coming days. Magrey, a resident of Hajibal, Kakapora in Pulwama district of Jammu & Kashmir, is an overground worker (OGW) of the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM).

According to agency sources, Magrey allegedly provided shelter and other logistical assistance to the Pulwama suicide bomber. He was sent to 15 days' NIA custody by a special NIA court in Jammu & Kashmir on Friday. During interrogation, Magrey revealed that he had harboured Dar and Pakistan-based terrorist Mohammad Umar Farooq in his house from late 2018 till the attack in February 2019 and assisted them in the preparation of the Improvised Explosive Device (IED). His shop is located near Lethpora bridge, and as advised by Mohammad Umar, he started conducting reconnaissance of the movement of CRPF convoys on Jammu-Srinagar Highway in January 2019, and informed Mohammad Umar and Adil Ahmad Dar about it.

Magrey was also involved in modifying the Maruti Eeco car and fitting the IED into it in early February, 2019 and was introduced to Adil Ahmad Dar in mid-2018 by Mohammad Umar and he became a full-time OGW of JeM.

"During his initial interrogation, he disclosed that on several occasions, he collected and delivered arms, ammunition, cash and explosive material to JeM terrorists, including those involved in the Pulwama attack," the agency had said on February 28.

"During investigation, the make, model and number of the car used in the attack was quickly ascertained by NIA to be a Maruti Eeco through forensic examination of the tiny remnants of the car which were found at the spot during extended searches," the agency stated.

"This has been corroborated by accused Shakir Bashir Magrey. The explosives used in the attack were determined to be ammonium nitrate, nitro-glycerin and RDX, through forensic investigation," it said.

The government suspended all the India-bound air travel from China and has declared all visas 'invalid', on Monday, due to the rapid escalation of cases of novel coronavirus outbreak which originated in Wuhan.

"Embassy and our Consulates have been receiving several queries from Chinese citizens as well as other foreign nationals, who are based out of China or visited China in the last 2 weeks, as to whether they can use their valid single/multiple entry visas to travel to India," tweeted the Embassy of India in Beijing, China.

"It is clarified that existing visas are no longer valid. Intending visitors to India should contact the Indian Embassy in Beijing ([email protected]) or the Consulates in Shanghai ([email protected]) and Guangzhou ([email protected]) to apply afresh for an Indian visa," it said.

Further, regarding the validity of visas, the embassy said, "Indian Visa Application Centres (http://blsindia-china.com) in these cities may also be contacted in this regard. Visa Section of the Embassy/Consulates of India in China can be contacted to ascertain the validity of visa before undertaking any visit to India."

"All those who are already in India (with regular or e-visa) and had traveled from China after January 15 are requested to contact the hotline number of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of Government of India (+91-11-23978046 and email: [email protected])," the embassy said.