Coal-gate: Sonia may ask ‘tainted’ Sahai, Jaiswal to go

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

New Delhi, Apr 10: With 896 COVID-19 cases reported in the country in the last 24 hours, India's total number of coronavirus positive cases rose to 6,761 on Friday, informed the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

Out of all these cases, 6039 are active cases, 516 have been cured/discharged/ migrated, and 206 deaths have been reported so far.

The country witnessed the highest one day increase with 896 cases.

37 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours.

Maharashtra with 1364 cases is the worst affected state followed by the Union Territory of Delhi with 898 cases and Tamil Nadu with 834 cases.

The country is under a 21-day lockdown until April 14 which was imposed to curb the spread of the virus.

States like Odisha and Punjab have extended the lockdown till April 30.

New Delhi, Jun 15: On Monday, petrol and diesel prices across the country were raised for the ninth consecutive day by 48 paise and 59 paise, respectively.

Petrol price per litre was raised to Rs 76.26 in New Delhi, Rs 83.17 in Mumbai, Rs 79.96 in Chennai, Rs 79.17 in Hyderabad, Rs 78.73 in Bengaluru and Rs 78.10 in Kolkata.

Diesel price per litre was hiked to Rs 74.62 in New Delhi, Rs 73.21 in Mumbai, Rs 72.69 in Chennai, Rs 72.93 in Hyderabad, Rs 70.95 in Bengaluru and Rs 70.33 in Kolkata.

Since 7 June, after ending their 82-day hiatus in daily revision, state-owned oil marketing companies have increased petrol price by Rs 5 per litre and diesel by Rs 5.23 per litre.

These prices are close to levels last seen in October-November 2018 when international oil prices had spiked close to $80 per barrel. In October 2018, petrol price in Mumbai had crossed Rs 90-mark and in Delhi, it was around Rs 83 per litre.

Comparatively, on Monday, Brent crude, the international benchmark for crude oil prices, fell 2.3 percent to $37.84 a barrel over concerns of subdued demand for fuel as new coronavirus infections were reported in China and the US.

The present spike in fuel prices in India could be attributed to the fact that central and state governments, along with oil marketing companies are looking to make up for their loss in revenues due to the lockdown.

Last month, the central government had increased the excise duty on per litre of petrol by Rs 10 and per litre of diesel by Rs 13. Several state governments have also hiked their VAT or cess on fuel in the last month. In fact, now around 70 percent of the retail price of fuel is just some form of tax.