Mecca over Marx: CPM leader Rezzak Mollah goes on Haj

New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

Indore, Jan 24: Around 80 Muslim leaders of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh on Friday resigned from the primary membership of the party in protest over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, calling it a "divisive" measure.

One of the leaders, Rajik Qureshi Farshiwala, said around 80 Muslim partymen have resigned from the BJP's primary membership after writing to the newly-appointed national president, J P Nadda, on Thursday.

These leaders, who dubbed the CAA "a divisive provision made on religious grounds", include several office- bearers of the BJP's minority cell, he said.

"It was becoming increasingly difficult for us to participate in our community's events after the CAA came into existence (in December 2019).

"At these events, people used to curse us and ask us how long we plan to keep quiet on a divisive law like the CAA?" he said.

"Persecuted refugees of any community should get Indian citizenship. You cannot decide that a particular person is an intruder or a terrorist merely on the basis of religion," Farshiwala added.

In their letter, the Muslim leaders stated, "Citizens have right to equality under Article 14 of the Indian Constitution. But the BJP-led Central Government is implementing the CAA on religious grounds.

"This is an act of dividing the country and against the basic spirit of the Constitution."

Some of the leaders who have resigned are considered close to BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya.

When asked about the development, Vijayvargiya on Thursday evening said, "I am not aware of the matter. But we will explain (about the CAA) if a person is being misled."

New Delhi, Feb 20: Hitting out at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress leader Sachin Sawant on Thursday said that the same BJP who tried to pressurise government lawyers so that the accused in the Malegaon bomb blast case, Samjhauta express case can be let off are now demanding that there should be a re-investigation in the 26/11 terror attacks, this is the biggest irony.

"By demanding that the case be re-investigated the BJP which gave a ticket to Pragya Thakur who was accused in the Malegaon blast case, has insulted all those brave police, the army who fought bravely. BJP should apologise to all those people," he said.

"If the BJP were serious about re-investigating the case why didn't they do it when they were in power in the state and the Centre? Was the government sleeping for the last five years? asked Maharashtra Congress committee's general secretary, Sachin Sawant.

"Rather than this, the BJP should ask for a fair inquiry in the incident where a Kashmir police officer Davindar Singh was caught in the company of terrorists and also, the role of the Sangh Parivar in the Malegaon Blasts," said Sawant.

Sawant said that BJP has crossed all limits while lying and it has stooped to the lowest levels of political discourse and is not thinking twice before defaming the Opposition.

In the book written by the retired police officer Rakesh Maria doesn't have anything other than what was there in the charge sheet on Ajmal Kasab. In his confession, Kasab has said that he was given an ID card with a Hindu name and also a red coloured thread by the Lashkar-e-taiba.

Because of this forged identity, they would be able to dodge the police. All these details have been clearly mentioned in the Kasab's confession.

Maria has mentioned in his book that if Kasab was not caught alive, the media would have declared him as a Hindu. Maria hasn't said that there was any kind of government pressure or any other conspiracy behind it. He was only talking about the media and also given all the details in the charge sheet. The BJP is only using this as a political tool in their low-class politics.

The leader added that, "The letter written by BJP MLA Atul Bhatkhalkar to CM Uddhav Thackeray has crossed all limits of lying. The Congress government in Maharashtra had formed a committee under retired home secretary Ram Pradhan to probe the 26/11 attack."

On the basis of an interview given by Ram Pradhan to a national daily on the 10th anniversary of the 26/11, he has levelled baseless allegations on former Central Home minister P Chidambaram, he added.

Bhatkhalkar in his letter has said that Chidambaram had asked Ram Pradhan to not to disclose the local connection that was found in the conspiracy. In fact, there is no such mention in the interview given by Ram Pradhan. Pradhan has said in the interview that Chidambaram wanted to see the report. Hence along with the report, some sensitive information was sent to the department separately and those were overlooked. After some time news related to David Headley had surfaced.

Ram Pradhan committee was not set up by the Centre but was set up by the state government and so it was not mandatory for the Centre to inform Ram Pradhan whether cognisance was taken regarding the sensitive information.

"In was during the Congress government that the first terrorist was caught alive due to the bravery of the police force and after following all the due procedures a verdict to hang him was given," said Sawant..

"Everyone has appreciated India's legal system in which even a terrorist was allowed to give his side," he added.