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New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

New Delhi, Jun 2: India on Tuesday reported 8,171 more COVID-19 cases and 204 deaths in the last 24 hours as the country's virus count inches closer to two lakh, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The total number of cases in the country now stands at 1,98,706 including 97,581 active cases, 95,527 cured/discharged/migrated and 5,598 deaths.

Cases in Maharashtra have crossed 70,000 including over 30,000 recovered while Tamil Nadu's COVID-19 tally jumped to 23,495.

New Delhi, Apr 8: The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country have continued to rise even on the 15th day of the lockdown, and reached 5,274 cases on Wednesday evening, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The tally includes 4,714 active, 411, cured/discharged and migrated cases as well as deaths. A total of 149 deaths have been reported due to the infection so far in the country.

Maharashtra with 1,018 confirmed cases has the highest number of COVID-19 patients in the country, while Tamil Nadu (690) and Delhi (576) are the two next most affected regions.

Fresh cases were reported on Wednesday from Telangana, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and the union territory of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, among other states and UTs.

Meanwhile, in an interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and floor leaders of several parties held today via video conferencing, discussions were held on extending the lockdown even further after the 21-day period.

The 21-day lockdown was announced on March 24 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
At the regular media briefing at 4 pm, Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry said that the government has ensured that there is no shortage of hydroxychloroquine in the country at present as well as in the future.

In the wake of COVID-19 outbreak, the Ministry of Human Resource and Development (MHRD) has launched 'Integrated Government Online Training Portal' wherein required resources will be provided for capacity building of the frontline workers.

"MHRD's training portal will provide required resources to the doctors, paramedics, nurse, technicians and ANMs and state government officials and civil defence officials, volunteers of National Cadet Corps (NCC), National Surveillance teams, Red Cross society and other organisations to have a large skill workforce to combat the coronavirus outbreak," said Aggarwal at a press conference here.

Speaking on government's preparedness on dealing with the patients having mild, very mild and serious conditions, Aggarwal said, "For people who have mild or very mild symptoms we have temporary hospitals, ie COVID care hospitals. Work is now being done to develop the field level infrastructure to take care of the mild and very mild symptomatic patients.

Similarly, for serious patients, we have dedicated healthcare centre and dedicated hospitals."

With fresh COVID-19 cases being reported across the country, several states and union territories, including Uttar Pradesh and Chandigarh, on Wednesday made it compulsory for people to use masks while venturing out of their houses.

Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates:

1. Prime Minister Narendra Modi hinted that the lockdown might be extended after the completion of the 21-day period.
2. Floor party leaders of various political parties from both the Rajya and Lok Sabha assured the government of their full support in the decisions needed to be taken in the coming days and also suggested taking various measures to help the people.
3. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), a total of 1,21,271 tests have been conducted in the country.
4. The Uttar Pradesh government has decided to strictly implement 100 per cent lockdown in hotspots located across 15 districts in the state till the morning of April 15. These areas will be completely cordoned off and civilian passes will stay suspended while essentials would be delivered to citizens at their doorsteps.
5. The Supreme Court suggested that all tests to identify coronavirus positive patients should be conducted free of cost in the identified private laboratories and said that the court will pass appropriate order on the matter. The SC bench also asked the central government to look into creating a mechanism for providing reimbursement for the same.
6. Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to take the responsibility of a poor family, at least till the COVID-19 crisis persists if they wanted to honour him.
7. Union Home Ministry announced that Rs 3000 crores have been distributed among two crore registered construction workers till now, according to Saheli Ghosh Roy, Joint Secretary.
8. The MHA official said that the Home Secretary has written to the state Chief Secretaries to ensure a continuous supply of essential commodities under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. The states can use measures like fixing stock limits, capping of price and checking bank accounts of the dealers.
9. The Health Ministry has assured that there will be no shortage of Hydroxychloroquine in the country. This came after India lifted the ban on the export of the anti-malarial drug being sued to treat COVID-19
10. The Maharashtra government too has issued an order to compulsorily wear masks while entering any government offices in Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Pune Metropolitan Region.