TMC bid to bring no-confidence motion fails in Lok Sabha

New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

Amaravati, Apr 1: All the 43 patients who were tested positive for COVID-19 in Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday have returned after attending the event at Delhi's Nizamuddin Markaz, said Chief Minister's Office, Andhra Pradesh.

With 43 new COVID-19 positive cases, the total number of coronavirus cases in Andhra Pradesh has reached 87, informed the state Nodal Office earlier today.

The 43 new coronavirus positive cases were reported between March 31, 9 pm and April 1, 9 am. A total of 373 samples were tested during this time period and of these samples, 330 were negative and 43 came out to be positive.

There has been an increase of 240 COVID-19 cases in the last 12 hours across the country.
According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the total number of COVID-19 positive cases have reached 1637 in India, including 1466 active cases, 133 cured/discharged/migrated people and 38 deaths.

Mumbai, Mar 27: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has taken note of the global economic activity coming to a near standstill due to the coronavirus pandemic and added that large parts of the world could slip into recession in the coming days to the coronavirus crisis.
"The MPC noted that global economic activity has come to a near stand-still as COVID-19 related lockdowns and social distancing are imposed across a widening swath of affected countries. Expectations of a shallow recovery in 2020, from 2019's decade low in global growth, have been dashed," Das said.
"The outlook is now heavily contingent upon the intensity, spread and duration of the pandemic. There is a rising probability that large parts of the world will slip into recession," he added.
The RBI Governor further added that "the implied GDP growth of 4.7 per cent in Quarter 4 of 2019-20, in the second advance estimates of the National Statistics Office which was released in February 2020, within the annual estimate of 5 per cent for the year as a whole is now at risk."
As per the outlook for the year 2020-21, Das said, "Apart from continuing resilience of agriculture and allied activities most other sectors of the economy will be adversely impacted by the pandemic depending upon, its intensity, spread and duration."
Das also announced a reduction in the repo and reverse repo rates for banks.
"The repo rate has been reduced by 75 basis points to 4.4 per cent. The reserve repo rate has been reduced by 90 basis points to 4 per cent," Das said addressing the media.
The decision for "a sizeable reduction" in the policy repo rate, according to the RBI Governor was taken to "revive growth and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and ensure financial stability."