Ties strained as India cuts fuel subsidy to Bhutan

July 6, 2013

India_cuts

New Delhi, Jul 6: Is this a case of diplomatic overkill or just the slow grind of the bureaucratic machinery? Five days ago, India withdrew all subsidy on cooking gas and kerosene being provided to Bhutan - arguably India's only unquestioned friend among its neighbours - creating a huge crisis in the tiny, landlocked kingdom and bringing the bilateral ties under strain.

Gas and kerosene prices have more than doubled in Bhutan, and predictably, this will hit the poor the hardest. The head of the interim government, Sonam Tobgye, has written to external affairs minister Salman Khurshid, seeking his intervention. Government sources here confirmed that Bhutan embassy had sought an appointment with Khurshid, who landed in Delhi only on Friday afternoon after his trip to Brunei and Singapore, to deliver the letter.

The subsidy cut has come against the backdrop of New Delhi smarting since last year when Bhutan PM Jigme Thinley appeared to be cosying up to Beijing. He had a meeting with the Chinese premier in Rio and also imported some 20 buses from China. India, which has historically supported Bhutan's foreign policy, including its membership to the UN, was taken by surprise.

The Thinley government has since played down his meeting with the Chinese leader, but not everyone in New Delhi seems convinced about its purported innocence. In fact, the mandarins here view it as a shift in Thimpu's foreign policy - a shift that appears to have been done at the instance of the elected Thinley government. However, it couldn't be ascertained whether the subsidy cut was linked to this.

Sources in Indian Oil Corporation told TOI that it stopped supplying subsidized gas and kerosene to Bhutan after it received a communication from the Indian government saying that henceforth it will not reimburse the subsidy component of fuels supplied there.

The subsidy cut has come bang in the middle of Bhutan's second election, scheduled for July 13. How big the impact of this is can be measured by the fact that the incumbent Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT) party president and the last prime minister, Jigme Thinley, has cut short his campaign and returned to Thimpu. His pitch is that helping out the poor was more important than electoral campaigning.

Is the subsidy cut a considered step or some bureaucrat's ill-advised enthusiasm? Officials here are suggesting that since the Bhutan 10th Plan expired on June 30, the fresh terms of financial assistance, including subsidies, would have to be negotiated with the new government.

As it happens, apart from the China angle, New Delhi has also been miffed at the cost escalation of power projects in Bhutan which it is financing. In some cases, the cost has almost doubled, raising suspicions of some fund diversion.

India's reservations about Bhutan's policies under Thinley is said to be a key reason why New Delhi reacted very late to bail out the kingdom from its rupee liquidity crunch. It extended a standby credit facility of Rs 1,000 crore for Bhutan only in January this year during the visit of Bhutan king Jigme Wangchuck with whom New Delhi continues to enjoy excellent relations.

So, was the subsidy cut an effort to convey a message to Thimpu, more specifically to the Thinley dispensation? If so, the medium for the message could have been better chosen. The one-go subsidy cut isn't an ordinary step: it has affected over half the Bhutan population badly. What's more, it has enabled Jigme Thinley to brandish his patriotic credentials and could end up helping him in the elections.

As is well known, India isn't exactly loved by its neighbours for its alleged big-brotherly attitude. The exception has been Bhutan, which is sandwiched between two giants, India and China. While the tall Himalayas lie between Bhutan and China, it has an open border with India, as well as free trade, access of markets and cultural affinity.

While the Thinley regime might have introduced a thorn in the warm ties, the one-shot cut in subsidy may not help in bringing back the warmth. On the contrary, it might end up fanning an anti-India sentiment among the people there. So, while New Delhi's concerns seem justified, greater thought is required to handle the emerging problem.

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News Network
February 14,2020

Washington, Feb 14: The United States has called for making Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz Saeed accountable for his involvement in the planning of "numerous acts of terrorism, including 2008 Mumbai attacks". "We continue to call for Hafiz Saeed to be held accountable for his involvement in the planning of numerous acts of terrorism, including 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 166 innocent people, including 6 Americans," US State Department spokesperson said on Thursday (February 13, 2020).

US State Department spokesperson said this while commenting on the Saeed`s conviction in terror financing cases.

The spokesperson said Hafiz Saeed`s conviction on terror financing is a step towards curtailing the operation of a terrorist group that threatens peace and stability in South Asia.

"We urge Pakistan to continue to take appropriate legal action against individuals who commit acts of terrorism, raise funds for, or advocate for terrorism," the official said.

On Wednesday, Alice Wells, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of US for South and Central Asian Affairs had termed the conviction of 26/11 Mumbai terror attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed as an "important step forward" towards holding terrorist organisation LeT "accountable for its crimes".

"Today`s conviction of Hafiz Saeed and his associate is an important step forward - both toward holding LeT accountable for its crimes and for #Pakistan in meeting its international commitments to combat terrorist financing," she tweeted.

"And as @ImranKhanPTI has said, it is in the interest of #Pakistan`s future that it not allow non-state actors to operate from its soil," she said in another tweet.

An anti-terrorism court in Lahore, Pakistan on Wednesday sentenced Mumbai terror attack mastermind and chief of the banned Jamaat-ud -Dawa (JuD) Hafiz Saeed to five-and-a-half years in prison each in two terror financing cases.

Pakistan based Dawn reported that he was slapped with a prison sentence of five-and-a-half years and a fine of Rs15,000 in each case and the sentences of both cases will run concurrently.

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News Network
April 21,2020

New Delhi, Apr 21: The historic rout in oil markets that sent US crude prices plummeting to as much as minus USD 40 a barrel is unlikely to translate into any big reduction in petrol and diesel prices in India as domestic pricing is based on different benchmark, and refineries are already filled up to brim and cannot buy US crude just yet.

With storage capacity already overflowing amid coronavirus-induced demand collapse, traders rushed to to get rid of unwanted stocks triggering the collapse of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC) Chairman Sanjiv Singh said the collapse was triggered by traders unable to take deliveries of crude they had previously booked because of a demand collapse. And so they paid the seller to keep oil in their storage.

"If you look at June futures, it is trading in positive territory... around USD 20 per barrel," he said.

Low oil prices may seem good in short-term but in the long run it will hurt the oil economy as producers will have no surplus to invest in exploration and production which will lead to a drop in production, he said.

He did not comment on retail fuel prices that have been static since March 16.

Oil companies have not changed rates despite a fall in international prices as they first adjusted them against the increase that was warranted from a Rs 3 per litre hike in excise duty and close to Re 1 per litre additional cost of switching over to cleaner BS-VI grade fuel from April 1.

Petrol in Delhi is priced at Rs 69.59 a litre and diesel comes for Rs 62.29 per litre.

"The negative price has no direct impact on India or Indian oil prices, as this has taken place due to crude oil produced and traded within the US. India's prices are driven partly by another benchmark, the Brent, which is still trading at USD 25/barrel. Therefore, the retail price of fuels in India are unlikely to fall," said Amit Bhandari, Fellow, Energy and Environment Studies, Gateway House.

Also, Indian refineries are already overflowing as fuel demand has evaporated due to the unprecedented nationwide lockdown imposed to curb spread of COVID-19. So, they can't rush to buy US crude.

The refineries have already cut operating rate to half because the fuel they produce has not been sold yet.

India imports 4 million barrels/day (1.4 billion barrels/year) of oil. The country has been benefitting from the falling prices of oil for the last five years, when oil dropped from a peak of USD 110/barrel to USD 50-60/barrel last year, enabling India to invest in public service programmes.

"However, the additional USD 30 fall of this week is good for India - but there is also a downside. If oil prices are too low, the economies of oil-rich gulf countries will be hurt, threatening the job prospects of the 8 million Indians working in the Gulf countries. India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances due to these workers – very low oil prices will hurt this cash stream," Bhandari said.

He said the negative price of oil shows how much oil oversupply exists in international markets today. "Global oil consumption has fallen due to the COVID-19 pandemic that traders are willing to pay customers to get rid of the barrels they can't store. The world does not have enough storage capacity, and dumping the oil is an environmental crime."

The first half of April saw Brent crude oil prices plummet 63.6 per cent to USD 26.9 per barrel. Prices of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American oil, had also fallen similarly by 63.1 per cent.

But on April 20, WTI prices turned rapidly negative because traders on the Nymex exchange rushed to offload their May futures positions a day before expiry of contracts (on April 21).

Such WTI futures are traded on the Nymex exchange with contracts settled in physical crude oil. Problem is, those who had gone long are unable to find storage facilities for the oil and had to liquidate their contracts before expiry. This caused the plunge in WTI prices.

Contrast to this, June WTI Nymex futures prices is hovering around USD 21, while Brent for June delivery is at USD 25.

Miren Lodha, Director, CRISIL Research said the demand for crude oil was declining already because of economic slowdown when the COVID-19 pandemic-driven lockdowns crushed it further.

Consequently, oil demand is expected to contract by 8-10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2020 assuming demand recovery begins from the third quarter of the year, he said, adding if recovery doesn't happen by then, further demand destruction could occur.

On the supply side, producers reining in output following a strategic deal between OPEC members, Russia and the US.

Under this agreement, OPEC+ would reduce oil production by 9.7 mbpd for May and June, but gradually ease the curb to 7.7 mbpd between July and December 2020, and to 5.8 mbpd till April 2022 to stabilise prices.

"This is expected to reduce some surplus in the market by the end of 2020," Lodha said.

Crude oil demand is expected to decline by over 20 mbpd in April alone. Typically, monthly global demand is about 100 mbpd. Given this scenario, supply curbs would have limited influence.

Consequently, Brent oil prices is expected to be in the USD 25-30 range for the second quarter while increasing marginally in the last 2 quarters of 2020.

"The gigantic inventory build-ups and lack of storage facilities would also put pressure on prices," he said, adding overall Brent could average USD 30-35 in 2020, with a strong downward bias.

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News Network
May 24,2020

Thiruvananthapuram, May 24: Keralites on Sunday celebrated a low-key Eid-ul-Fitr amid the coronavirus lockdown in the state as most of the faithful marked the culmination of the fasting month of Ramzan by offering thanksgiving prayers at home.

The festival is being celebrated across Kerala and Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday, while the rest of the country will celebrate Eid on Monday.

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan extended Eid-ul-Fitr greetings to all Keralites across the world.

State Governor Arif Mohammed Khan also extended his festival wishes to all the Keralites.

"May we also have the blessing to prevent and eliminate the COVID-19 disease," Khan tweeted.

Vijayan said this year Ramzan is celebrated at a time when the world is going through "an unprecedented crisis and misery" because of pandemic COVID-19.

"Usual celebration during Ramzan is not there anywhere in the world due to the pandemic. Instead of offering prayers at mosques, which is important for Muslims, this time the prayers and the feast is performed in their homes.

Community leaders have taken this important decision to protect the interests of the society" he added.

The chief minister said Eid-ul-Fitr gives out a message of equality, tolerance and repentance.

The state government had earlier announced that the lockdown restrictions in the state onSunday will be relaxed in the view of Eid-ul-Fitr with shops selling essential items remaining open.

The State government had earlier declared that a complete shutdown would be observed in Kerala on Sundays in order to contain the spread of the deadly virus.

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