Earthquake rocks North India

New Delhi, Feb 1: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman promised to make India a higher education destination, as she unveiled the government’s plan to invest in the education sector in her Budget speech.

“We propose Rs 99,300 crore for education sector in 2020-21 and Rs 3,000 crore for skill development,” said Sitharaman. While there is an increase of 4.6 per cent in the education spending than last year, the budget for skill development remains almost unchanged. Sitharaman also announced holding IND-SAT exam in African and Asian countries, for foreign candidates who wish to study in India.

The Finance Minister had listed three themes of the Union Budget 2020 while presenting the financial statement of the government in Parliament: Aspirational India to boost the standard of living, economic development for all, and building a humane and compassionate society. The spend under education is being done under aspirational India, “which focusses on focussed on skills, education, and agriculture” said Sitharaman.

“A degree-level full-fledged online education programme will be offered by institutes in top 100 in National Institutional Ranking Framework,” said Sitharaman, adding that Centre will announce a new education policy soon. “The government has received over 2 lakh suggestions on it.”

Further giving boost to India’s import of skilled human capital, Sitharaman said, “I propose special bridge course for nurses and medical professional for labour export to countries who open their door for such jobs.”

“Steps will be be taken to attract external commercial borrowing and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the education sector,” the finance minister added.

She further said the government plans to start a programme for urban local bodies to provide opportunities for internship to young engineers.

The Finance Minister also said National Police University and National Forensic University are being proposed.

The government has also proposed to attach medical colleges with district hospitals on PPP model to deal with shortage of doctors, Sitharaman added.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Patna, Feb 21: The country is paying the price for failure to send Muslims to Pakistan and bring Hindus to India after the Islamic state came into being at the time of Independence, Union minister Giriraj Singh has said, triggering a fresh controversy.

The BJP leader made the remark in Purnea district in the Seemanchal region of Bihar which has a sizeable Muslim population and where the Begusarai MP was canvassing in favor of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

Highlighting the need for such a legislation, he told reporters late Thursday "when our forefathers were fighting for Independence from British rule, Jinnah was pushing for the creation of an Islamic state".

"Our forefathers, however, committed a mistake. Had they ensured that all our Muslim brothers were sent to Pakistan and Hindus brought here, the need for such a move (CAA) would not have arisen. This did not happen and we have paid a heavy price for it," the outspoken BJP leader said.

The CAA, which seeks to fast-track granting citizenship to non-Muslim refugees from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan who might have fled their home countries because of religious persecution, has become a major bone of contention since it is feared that a country-wide National Register for Citizens (NRC) may follow.

The Narendra Modi government, which had formerly hinted that a country-wide NRC was on the anvil, seems to have put it on the backburner though a section of citizens across the country, especially Muslims, have been organizing protests out of fear that, if implemented, the NRC may result in a large number of people becoming stateless.

Singh has often been in the crosshairs of the opposition for placing his foot in the mouth. This time, however, his words were frowned upon even by NDA ally Lok Janshakti Party, founded by his cabinet colleague Ram Vilas Paswan and now headed by his son Chirag Paswan.

The young LJP chief, who kicked off a state-wide "Bihar First-Bihari First" yatra here Friday morning, to project the NDAs progressive face ahead of the assembly polls due later this year, expressed strong disapproval of Singh's utterance and noted the coalition had to suffer in the Delhi polls because of "divisive" remarks by BJP leaders.

"We are an NDA constituent but many times our coalition partners say things which the LJP does not at all agree with. This one (Giriraj Singhs statement) is such an example. Had a person of my party spoken in this fashion, I would have taken responsibility and acted," Paswan said.

He said he had placed his view repeatedly on record that the coalition had to suffer on account of divisive remarks, Paswan said in apparent reference to inflammatory speeches by BJP leaders like Union minister Anurag Thakur and BJP MP Parvesh Verma, among others.

"The people of Delhi voted on the basis of performance. We wish they do so again in Bihar and real issues don't get drowned in political cacophony.

"The Nitish Kumar government has accomplished a lot, though much more needs to be achieved. We wish to reach out to people with our vision for the future, said Paswan, before he embarked on the yatra on a customized bus decorated like a chariot in front of which he offered prayers and smashed a coconut.

Meanwhile, Giriraj Singh who loves to wear his Hindu nationalism on the sleeves was busy joining issue with Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM which has been under attack for controversial remarks by its leader Waris Pathan.

Sharing video of an old speech by Owaisis brother Akbaruddin which had landed him in jail, besides Pathan's recent remark, Singh asked the opposition RJD-Congress combine in Bihar and the "tukde tukde gang" whether they wanted to "convert India into Pakistan".