Antony defends his statement on soldiers' killing

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, Apr 8: The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country have continued to rise even on the 15th day of the lockdown, and reached 5,274 cases on Wednesday evening, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The tally includes 4,714 active, 411, cured/discharged and migrated cases as well as deaths. A total of 149 deaths have been reported due to the infection so far in the country.

Maharashtra with 1,018 confirmed cases has the highest number of COVID-19 patients in the country, while Tamil Nadu (690) and Delhi (576) are the two next most affected regions.

Fresh cases were reported on Wednesday from Telangana, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and the union territory of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, among other states and UTs.

Meanwhile, in an interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and floor leaders of several parties held today via video conferencing, discussions were held on extending the lockdown even further after the 21-day period.

The 21-day lockdown was announced on March 24 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
At the regular media briefing at 4 pm, Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry said that the government has ensured that there is no shortage of hydroxychloroquine in the country at present as well as in the future.

In the wake of COVID-19 outbreak, the Ministry of Human Resource and Development (MHRD) has launched 'Integrated Government Online Training Portal' wherein required resources will be provided for capacity building of the frontline workers.

"MHRD's training portal will provide required resources to the doctors, paramedics, nurse, technicians and ANMs and state government officials and civil defence officials, volunteers of National Cadet Corps (NCC), National Surveillance teams, Red Cross society and other organisations to have a large skill workforce to combat the coronavirus outbreak," said Aggarwal at a press conference here.

Speaking on government's preparedness on dealing with the patients having mild, very mild and serious conditions, Aggarwal said, "For people who have mild or very mild symptoms we have temporary hospitals, ie COVID care hospitals. Work is now being done to develop the field level infrastructure to take care of the mild and very mild symptomatic patients.

Similarly, for serious patients, we have dedicated healthcare centre and dedicated hospitals."

With fresh COVID-19 cases being reported across the country, several states and union territories, including Uttar Pradesh and Chandigarh, on Wednesday made it compulsory for people to use masks while venturing out of their houses.

Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates:

1. Prime Minister Narendra Modi hinted that the lockdown might be extended after the completion of the 21-day period.
2. Floor party leaders of various political parties from both the Rajya and Lok Sabha assured the government of their full support in the decisions needed to be taken in the coming days and also suggested taking various measures to help the people.
3. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), a total of 1,21,271 tests have been conducted in the country.
4. The Uttar Pradesh government has decided to strictly implement 100 per cent lockdown in hotspots located across 15 districts in the state till the morning of April 15. These areas will be completely cordoned off and civilian passes will stay suspended while essentials would be delivered to citizens at their doorsteps.
5. The Supreme Court suggested that all tests to identify coronavirus positive patients should be conducted free of cost in the identified private laboratories and said that the court will pass appropriate order on the matter. The SC bench also asked the central government to look into creating a mechanism for providing reimbursement for the same.
6. Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to take the responsibility of a poor family, at least till the COVID-19 crisis persists if they wanted to honour him.
7. Union Home Ministry announced that Rs 3000 crores have been distributed among two crore registered construction workers till now, according to Saheli Ghosh Roy, Joint Secretary.
8. The MHA official said that the Home Secretary has written to the state Chief Secretaries to ensure a continuous supply of essential commodities under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. The states can use measures like fixing stock limits, capping of price and checking bank accounts of the dealers.
9. The Health Ministry has assured that there will be no shortage of Hydroxychloroquine in the country. This came after India lifted the ban on the export of the anti-malarial drug being sued to treat COVID-19
10. The Maharashtra government too has issued an order to compulsorily wear masks while entering any government offices in Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Pune Metropolitan Region.

New Delhi, July 10: Hours before gangster Vikas Dubey was killed in an alleged police encounter on Friday, a plea was filed in the Supreme Court demanding urgent listing for action into his "possible killing" by Uttar Pradesh Police.

Advocate Ghanshyam Upadhyay had apprehended in his plea that there is a high possibility that Dubey will also be killed in a 'fake' encounter after his arrest from Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh a day ago.

Upadhyay claimed that the UP Police was expected to "concoct the same story of encounter" for Dubey like it did when four of his associates were killed after the 2 July incident.

Dubey was the primary accused in the killing of eight policemen in Kanpur on July 2. He was arrested from Ujjain on Thursday. He was killed in a police encounter, when he allegedly tried to flee on Friday morning.

"During the hunt for Dubey and co-accused, five of his accused aides were arrested/caught and then killed by the police in the name of encounter...Thus, there is every possibility that even Dubey shall be killed by Uttar Pradesh Police like other co-accused once his custody is obtained," Upadhyay feared.

He submitted that the killing of the accused by the police in the name of encounter no matter how heinous the crime was "against the rule of law and serious violation of human rights and nothing sort of Talibanisation of the country". Upadhyay sought hearing in the matter on Friday itself, citing extreme urgency.