Unemployment among Muslims dropping, shows NSSO data

India will suspend all domestic flights from midnight Tuesday, the final piece of a nationwide lockdown that threatens Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to revive an economy already expanding at the slowest pace in more than a decade.

The flight ban compliments a cancellation of all passenger trains through March 31, as authorities try to halt the spread of the coronavirus in the world’s second-most populous country, which has poorly equipped hospitals and inadequate social security. Modi on Monday held a conference call with some of India’s top entrepreneurs and bankers, who urged policymakers to immediately slash interest rates by as much as a full percentage point, transfer cash to the poorest citizens, and suspend loan-repayments.

Over the past three days, state after state has declared curfews and India’s international borders have been shut for most visitors since March 11. India so far has 492 virus cases, including nine deaths. But experts say the country could be on the same trajectory as Italy, where the outbreak quickly escalated, causing hospitals to overflow.
A traveller stands outside a near-empty Delhi Junction Railway Station in Delhi, March 22.

"This is the biggest lockdown in world history,” said Raghu Raman, a former soldier with the Indian Army and founder of the National Intelligence Grid, an umbrella database aimed at countering terrorism. “This strategic pause gives decision-makers more time to arrest the exponential spread of the virus and evaluate trade-offs.”

Controlling the outbreak is crucial for Modi, who remains India’s most popular political leader currently though his economic management has faced criticism. Foreign investors are selling Indian assets at an unprecedented pace and failure to contain deaths and infections could erode some of the prime minister’s personal appeal at home.

Oxford Economics slashed India’s January-March growth forecast to 3%, a number not seen even during the worst of the global financial crisis. The main equity gauge rose about 3% on Tuesday after a record 13.2% plunge Monday, and the rupee stayed near its all-time low.

“A part of the cerebral cortex that senses fear and survival seems to have activated in the minds of investors,” said Umesh Mehta, Mumbai-based head of research at Samco Securities Ltd. “The only relief in this market can come from either policy makers and regulators, or from some positive news that a cure for the pandemic is near.”

Bloomberg Economics estimates Modi’s administration needs at least 1% of gross domestic product -- $30 billion -- to meaningfully respond to the virus outbreak. Meanwhile, the nation’s billionaires are diverting their factories to manufacture medical equipment and pledging to keep paying their staff even as production grinds to a halt. India allowed companies to use their philanthropy funds to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Reliance Industries Ltd., controlled by India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, has helped equip a hospital in Mumbai dedicated to patients of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. It will also build quarantine centers and produce 100,000 facemasks a day and other personal protective equipment for health workers. The group’s telecom unit will offer free broadband to enable work-from-home during the lockdown and will pay its lowest paid workers twice a month to protect household incomes.

Ambani joins Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Chairman Anand Mahindra and Vedanta Resources Ltd. Chairman Anil Agarwal -- a combined worth of more than $40 billion between the trio -- who have so far made pledges.

Indian companies are responding to Modi’s shutdown call. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Tata Motors Ltd., Toyota Kirloskar Motor, Hero MotoCorp., Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc., Mahindra Group, TVS Motor Co., Kia Motors Corp., Renault Nissan Automotive India Private Ltd., and Yamaha Motor India are among companies that have announced factory suspensions.

Policymakers are aware of the risks of such a move. India -- with a record 5.9 trillion rupees of local corporate debt maturing this year -- faces “waves of default” if cash flows aren’t maintained, the government’s principal economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said an interview.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last week said the government will announce a relief package for coronavirus-affected sectors as soon as possible. The Reserve Bank of India, which is due to review interest rates April 3, announced a 1 trillion rupee cash injection on Monday.

“Let me assure, whatever it takes to keep the cash flow going in the economy will be done,” Sanyal said. “We need to make sure that when we are past the health storm, we still have an economy that has not gotten gridlocked. Because unwinding that would be more difficult.”

New Delhi, Feb 11: Cheaper lending rates in the country along with the government's booster via tax cuts seem to have had little effect on vehicle sales in January, with car sales decreasing by over 14,531 units, or slightly over 8 per cent, compared to January last year.

According to Rajan Wadhera, President of industry body Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), which gives out the auto sales numbers, the overall slump in vehicle sales in India was due to the "rising cost of vehicle ownership and slower growth in GDP".

Barring three-wheelers, all other segments showed de-growth.

Vehicle sales across segments have been declining for over a year now. SIAM sales data last month compared with that of January 2019 showed that domestic passenger vehicle sales slipped 6.2 per cent to 262,714 units. The decline in car sales stood at 8.1 per cent, and two-wheelers 16.06 per cent.

Sales of commercial vehicles, an indicator of industrial health in the economy, slipped by 14.04 per cent to 75,289 units last month, while the vehicle sales across categories registered a de-growth of 13.83 per cent to 17,39,975 units from 20,19,253 units in January 2019, SIAM said.

However, Wadhera said, they were hopeful that recent government announcements on infrastructure and rural economy would support growth of vehicle sales, especially in the commercial and two-wheeler segments.

"We are looking forward to the early announcement of an incentive-based scrappage policy in the context of the recent assurances by the government," Wadhera said.

New Delhi, Mar 25: The Congress said on Wednesday that it stood with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his appeal for 21-day lockdown but was "deeply disappointed by the lack of coherent strategy" and demanded that Rs 7,500 should be transferred to every Jan Dhan, PM Kisan and pension account to tide over the nutrition needs for 21-days.
It also demanded that the Public Distribution System (PDS) ration should be given free.
In a series of tweets, Congress Communications in-charge Randeep Singh Surejwala said that the need of the hour was to implement 'Minimum Income Guarantee Scheme' (Nyay) mooted by the Congress and party leader Rahul Gandhi.
"Please transfer Rs 7,500 to every Jan Dhan, PM Kisan, and every pension account to tide over nutrition needs of 21 days and give free PDS ration. We will rise together as a nation and defeat COVID-19. We stand with lockdown but are deeply disappointed by the lack of coherent strategy or a clear 'way ahead' on your part," he said.
Surjewala asked what steps the government took despite an early warning about COVID-19 and sought details about isolation beds and ventilators available to people.
"Dear PM, India will adhere to the lockdown but what steps did the govt take to tackle the corona pandemic despite early warnings in Feb? When will doctors, nurses and health workers have adequate protection? How many 'isolation beds' and ventilators are available and where?" he said.
He asked how daily wagers and labourers will sustain during the 21-day lockdown.
"What's your plan to address the huge issue of bread and butter and livelihood for millions? How will daily wagers, labourers, MGNREGA workers, factory workers, unorganised workers, fishermen, farmers and farm labour sustain for 21 days?" he asked.
Surjewala said the crying need is to arm doctors, nurses and health workers with personal protection equipment and asked: "why are N-95 masks, Hazmat suits not available?"
"In March itself, India needs 7.25 lakh bodysuits, 60 lakh N-95 masks, 1 crore 3 ply masks? When will they be available?" he asked.
Surjewala said that the government banned the export of ventilators, respiratory devices and sanitisers only yesterday on March 24, "84 days after the spread of COVID-19."
"Is this your government's 'Modus operandi' to fight coronavirus? Too little, Too late!," he said.
Noting that two-thirds of the country's population is engaged in agriculture, he said that Prime Minister Modi did not refer to farmers during his address to the nation and demanded a moratorium on farmers' loans.
"Crop is ready for harvest in March itself. How will it be harvested and sold and who will buy at fair price? Indebtedness relief to farmers is the only way forward in these testing times. Please put a moratorium on farmers' loans and recoveries. Please ensure the procurement of crops at MSP. Let's not forget that farmers are the backbone of India's economy," he said.
Surjewala said the Prime Minister gave only four hours to prepare for 21-day lockdown.
"Did you think of over 5 lakh truck drivers, who are now stranded on roads? Did you think of millions of workers, who are stranded in cities away from home without food or money? What should they do," he asked.