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New Delhi, Apr 3: The total number of coronavirus cases in Delhi has risen to 384, including 259 who were evacuated from Nizamuddin Markaz, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said on Friday.

In last 24 hours, 91 new cases were reported in the national capital and one more person evacuated from the Markaz died due to coronavirus, taking the total number of deaths in the city to five, he said.

Of the 384 cases, 58 had recent foreign travel history and 38 contracted the virus after coming in contact with them, he added.

Kejriwal said community spread of the virus is not taking place in Delhi yet and there is no need to panic as the situation is under control.

The government has made preparations if the virus starts spreading among people, he said.

The chief minister also launched a WhatsApp helpline - 8800007722 for people to enquire about COVID-19, food banks, shelters among others.

Meanwhile, Kejriwal, deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia and experts will interact with students and answer their queries related to the virus at 3 pm on Saturday.

New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

Thiruvananthapuram, Feb 7: Kerala Finance Minister T M Thomas Isaac on Friday began presenting the fifth budget of the CPI(M)-led LDF government for the 2020-21 fiscal by making remarks against the Citizenship Amendment Act and the unanimous resolution passed by the state assembly against it.

Stating the amended act was posing a threat to the basic credentials of the Constitution, he said the country was witnessing the biggest protests ever in the post-Independence era.

Students and women are at the forefront of the anti- CAA agitations and the hope of the country lies in the youth who hit the streets vowing they would not let the country down, he said.

Coming down heavily on the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre, Isaac said a communalised government machinery, leaders who talk only about "disgust and hatred" and their party workers who consider violence as their duty was the current reality in the country.

"Generally speaking, it is the present India...The concerns triggered by Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) are beyond words. The fear of detention centres are hanging above the head of over 19 lakh people of Assam who have lived as Indians till yesterday," he said.

Quoting from a poem 'Fear' by a 15-year old boy from Wayanad Dhruvath Gautham who wrote 'fear is country and silence is an ornament!,' Isaac said "even the imagination of our children is now filled with fear".

Referring to the stringent opposition raised by the Left government in the state against the CAA and NRC, the finance minister lavished praise on the joint protests led by the ruling LDF and opposition UDF against the central act.

Setting aside political differences, the rival fronts in the state had joined hands to protest when the country had faced existential threat which had become a model for other states, he said.

When Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Leader of the Opposition Ramesh Chennithala jointly protested at the same venue against CAA, Kerala became a model to other states, the senior leader added.

The state showcased the same unity while passing a resolution requesting the centre to repeal the CAA and filing a suit in the apex court against this under the Article 130, he said.

"The country's economy is heading towards a severe economic crisis like that witnessed in 2009," he said.

Earlier, the references to anti-CAA protests had found a place in the Pinarayi Vijayan government's policy address also.

While presenting the policy address in the House, Governor Arif Mohammed Khan had read out references to anti- CAA resolution passed by the house, despite disagreeing with it.

Reading out the the anti-CAA stand of the state government, the Governor said "our citizenship can never be on the basis of religion as this goes against the grain of secularism which is part of the basic structure of our constitution.