Rupee, stocks rally as new RBI chief Rajan fuels confidence

September 5, 2013

RBI_chief_copyMumbai, Sep 5: The rupee rallied and shares surged on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chief unveiled a slew of measures to support the ailing currency and open markets, providing a shot of confidence for investors unnerved by the country's worst economic crisis in two decades.

The rupee rose as much as 2.3 per cent to 65.53 per dollar, well off the record low 68.85 hit on August 28.

The Nifty rose as much as 3.3 per cent, propelled by lenders such as HDFC Bank, which surged after the new measures included increasing overseas borrowing limits for banks.

However, amid the euphoria over RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's strong Wednesday debut, economists warned he cannot by himself solve the challenges in an economy facing a sharp growth slowdown and a record high current account deficit, which have fueled a 16 per cent slide in the rupee so far this year.

The government has failed to push through politically tough reforms needed to fix the economy, and elections due by next May instead raise the prospect of expensive populist spending that could threaten the country's sovereign credit rating, which is one notch above junk status.

"To a certain extent, the recent rupee tumble and instability in the financial markets, has been a crisis of confidence. To that end, the path of action provided by the new governor and the stress on keeping communications predictable and consistent will be a welcome move," Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said in an email to clients.

"Still, the external drivers of the rupee weakness will continue to dictate the momentum, along with the urgent need to address domestic structural pitfalls - fiscal and current account deficits, along with reviving investment activity."

At least for Thursday, Indian markets reflected the optimism placed on Rajan, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund who unexpectedly unveiled a flurry of proposals in his first day at the helm of the central bank.

In terms of action to prop up the rupee, the measures included providing exporters and importers more flexibility in hedging their forward currency contracts, as trading firms had long complained about regulations that left them unable to quickly cope with rapid currency movements.

"The statement is impressive and a must-read, in our view," Deutsche Bank said in a note.

"India's myriad cyclical and structural impediments will continue to hold back the economy for the time being, and risks of a deeper crisis are non-trivial, but (Wednesday's) statement shows a fresh and cohesive vision of monetary and financial sector policy from a newly appointed central bank governor can shine a much-needed light on India's promise and potential."

India's defence of the rupee has so far relied on controversial steps taken by the RBI, which have included draining cash from the market, raising short-term interest rates and imposing capital controls on resident Indians.

Investors have expressed little faith that the government can push through substantial reforms, such as a hike in subsidised fuel prices, that could help revive confidence in the economy.

Asia's third-largest economy is suffering from a dearth of investment and sharp slowdowns in the manufacturing and services sectors.

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Rupee, stocks rally as new RBI chief Rajan fuels confidence

Mumbai, Sep 5: The rupee rallied and shares surged on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chief unveiled a slew of measures to support the ailing currency and open markets, providing a shot of confidence for investors unnerved by the country's worst economic crisis in two decades.

The rupee rose as much as 2.3 per cent to 65.53 per dollar, well off the record low 68.85 hit on August 28.

The Nifty rose as much as 3.3 per cent, propelled by lenders such as HDFC Bank, which surged after the new measures included increasing overseas borrowing limits for banks.
However, amid the euphoria over RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's strong Wednesday debut, economists warned he cannot by himself solve the challenges in an economy facing a sharp growth slowdown and a record high current account deficit, which have fueled a 16 per cent slide in the rupee so far this year.

The government has failed to push through politically tough reforms needed to fix the economy, and elections due by next May instead raise the prospect of expensive populist spending that could threaten the country's sovereign credit rating, which is one notch above junk status.

"To a certain extent, the recent rupee tumble and instability in the financial markets, has been a crisis of confidence. To that end, the path of action provided by the new governor and the stress on keeping communications predictable and consistent will be a welcome move," Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said in an email to clients.

"Still, the external drivers of the rupee weakness will continue to dictate the momentum, along with the urgent need to address domestic structural pitfalls - fiscal and current account deficits, along with reviving investment activity."

At least for Thursday, Indian markets reflected the optimism placed on Rajan, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund who unexpectedly unveiled a flurry of proposals in his first day at the helm of the central bank.

In terms of action to prop up the rupee, the measures included providing exporters and importers more flexibility in hedging their forward currency contracts, as trading firms had long complained about regulations that left them unable to quickly cope with rapid currency movements.

"The statement is impressive and a must-read, in our view," Deutsche Bank said in a note.

"India's myriad cyclical and structural impediments will continue to hold back the economy for the time being, and risks of a deeper crisis are non-trivial, but (Wednesday's) statement shows a fresh and cohesive vision of monetary and financial sector policy from a newly appointed central bank governor can shine a much-needed light on India's promise and potential."

India's defence of the rupee has so far relied on controversial steps taken by the RBI, which have included draining cash from the market, raising short-term interest rates and imposing capital controls on resident Indians.
Investors have expressed little faith that the government can push through substantial reforms, such as a hike in subsidised fuel prices, that could help revive confidence in the economy.

Asia's third-largest economy is suffering from a dearth of investment and sharp slowdowns in the manufacturing and services sectors.

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Agencies
January 9,2020

The World Bank says that a lack of credit and drop in private consumption have led to a gloomy growth outlook for India with a steep cut in growth rate for the current fiscal year and only a modest gain projected for the next year.

India's growth rate is forecast to be only 5 per cent for the current fiscal year, weighed down by a growth of only 4.5 per cent in the July-September quarter, according to the 2020 Global Economic Prospects report released on Wednesday.

"In India, [economic] activity was constrained by insufficient credit availability, as well as by subdued private consumption," the Bank said.

The growth rate is forecast by the Bank to pick up to 5.8 per cent in the next fiscal year and to 6.1 per cent in 2021-22.

India's growth rate was 6.8 per cent in 2018-19.

The 5 per cent growth rate projection for the current financial year is a sharp cut of 2.5 per cent from the 7.5 per cent forecast made by the Bank in January last year, toppling it from the rank of the world's fastest growing economy.

India's performance follows a global trend of lowered growth weighed down by developed economies.

The report estimated world economic growth rate to be only 2.4 per cent last year and forecast it to edge up 0.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the current year.

Even with the lower growth rate of 5 per cent in the current fiscal year and 5.8 per cent forecast for the next, India holds the second rank among large economies, behind only China with an estimated growth rate of 6.1 per cent for 2019 and 5.9 per cent this year.

The report blamed "weak confidence, liquidity issues in the financial sector" and "weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies" for India's slowdown.

The Bank predicated India's recovery to 5.8 per cent in the coming financial year for India but "on the monetary policy stance remaining accommodative" and the assumption that "the stimulative fiscal and structural measures already taken will begin to pay off."

It also warned that sharper-than-expected slowdown in major external markets such as United States and Europe, would affect South Asia through trade, financial, and confidence channels, especially for countries with strong trade links to these economies."

The Bank said that the growth of advanced economies was 1.6 per cent last year and "is anticipated to slip to 1.4 per cent in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing."

In contrast the growth of emerging market and developing countries is expected to accelerate from 3.5 per cent last year to 4.1 per cent this year, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is estimated to have the highest growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year, although down from 8.1 per cent last fiscal year.

But its higher regional growth rates are coming off a lower base with a per capital gross domestic product of $1,698 compared to $2,010 for India.

Bangladesh is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the next financial year.

Pakistan's growth rate is estimated at only 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and is projected to rise to 3 per cent in the next, according to the Bank.

The Bank blamed monetary tightening in Pakistan for a sharp deceleration in fixed investment and a considerable softening in private consumption for the fall in growth rate from 3.3 per cent in the 2018-19 fiscal year.

Sri Lanka's growth rate was estimated to be 2.7 per cent last year and forecast to grow to 3.3 per cent this year.

Nepal grew by an estimated 6.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and will rise to 6.5 per cent in the next.

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News Network
January 1,2020

Jammu, Jan 1: As many as 160 terrorists were killed in Jammu and Kashmir this year, while 250 terrorists, including 102 of Pakistani origin, were active in the Valley, Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh said on Tuesday, noting that terror incidents and the number of local youths turning towards terrorism have decreased.

"250 terrorists have been active in Jammu and Kashmir. There is a decrease in number of active terrorists as compared to last year," Mr Singh said at the annual press conference at police headquarters in Jammu.

The DGP said that there is 30 per cent fall in terrorist incidents, less civilian killings and 36 per cent decrease in law and order incidents as compared to 2018.

"218 such (local) youths joined militant outfits in 2018 but only 139 joined in 2019," he said. Out of these new recruits only 89 have survived.

"The rest have been eliminated as their shelf life is between 24 hours to 2-3 months after joining militancy. There are hardly few old terrorists surviving, which include Jehangir Saroori and Riyaz Nayikoo", he said.

There have been only 481 law and order incidents this year as compared to 625 last year, he said.

There were 80 per cent successful anti-terror operations in which 160 terrorists, including foreigners, have been killed during the year.

Mr Singh said 102 terrorists have been arrested and 10 terrorists surrendered during the year.

He said that 102 Pakistan origin terrorists are still operating in Kashmir.

"Eleven valiant police personnel from Jammu and Kashmir besides 72 from other other security forces have been martyred," he said.

There was no collateral damage during anti-terror operation as people fully cooperated. "There was zero law and order problem this year (during anti terror operations)," he added.

The DGP said that "there has been a high degree of incidents of infiltration attempts from across the border this year and also ceasefire violations. But security forces have successfully foiled these attempted as 130 infiltrators have entered in 2019 as compared to 143 last year".

He said Jammu and Kashmir Police has set an example by handling the law and order situation in the most "exemplary" way following the abrogation of Article 370 provisions.

It was the biggest challenge faced by the force in 2019, but "we handled the most critical phase in the best way" and there was no civilian casualty during the period, he said.

Dismissing claims of minors being arrested by police in Kashmir, he said that it is being used as propaganda by some people and asserted that the J-K police has acted within the limits of law.

"We are open to scrutiny. The issue reached the Supreme Court which referred it to Jammu and Kashmir high court. The matter was inquired by the HC committee. The SC said that there is no misuse of law by law enforcement agency. J-K police has acted within the limits of law," he said.

Replying to queries on restoration of internet, the DGP said it is under consideration. "I think J-K is moving towards such a situation (on law and order front). Very soon you will hear positive announcement," Mr Singh said.

He said that though some people will try to misuse internet, "in the past, we took care of them and we will take care of such people in the future too".

Internet services in all government-run hospitals and SMS to all mobile phones will be restored from December 31 midnight in the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Kashmir official spokesman Rohit Kansal said on Tuesday.

On December 10, some short message service (SMS) were enabled on mobile phones in order to facilitate students, scholarship applicants, traders and others. It has now been decided to fully restore the service throughout Kashmir from midnight of December 31, Kansal said.

Mobile Internet services were restored in Kargil district of Ladakh on Friday after remaining suspended for 145 days in the wake of the Centre abrogating provisions of Article 370 of the Constitution, officials said.

Internet services were suspended on August 4, a day before the Centre announced abrogation of Article 370 and division of the state into the union territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.

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News Network
March 13,2020

Bhopal, Mar 13: The Madhya Pradesh Economic Offences Wing (EOW) on Thursday decided to verify facts afresh in a complaint against former Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia and his family, in which they are accused of falsifying a property document while selling land.

The development came after Mr Scindia quit the Congress and joined the BJP on Wednesday. 22 MLAs who belong to his camp also resigned, threatening the survival of the Kamal Nath government in the state.

"Yes, an order has been given for re-verification of facts in the complaint filed by Surendra Shrivastava," an Economic Offences Wing official told PTI.

An EOW release said Mr Shrivastava on Thursday filed a new complaint against Mr Scindia and his family, alleging that by falsifying a registry document, they sold him a piece of land at Mahalgaon which was smaller by 6,000 sq feet than the original agreement in 2009.

He had lodged the complaint first on March 26, 2014. But it was investigated and closed in 2018, the EOW official said. "As he again petitioned us today, we will re-verify the facts," the officer said.

Jyotiraditya Scindia's close aide Pankaj Chaturvedi alleged that it was political vendetta.

"The case had been closed for want of evidence. Now for vengeance, it is being reopened. We have full faith in the Constitution and law. We will get justice and Kamal Nath government a befitting reply," Mr Chaturvedi said.

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