N D Tiwari back to his 'colourful' ways

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

New Delhi, Mar 7: Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad has taunted Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati saying that she has lost her way. He also said that one will have to work for the larger interest of the society to bring about equality. Only the speeches cannot improve the condition of the Dalits, their participation in power must increase.

In an interview with media persons, Chandrashekhar said: "Members of minority community, Dalits and backward classes are being targeted in the country. Their rights are being taken away. Our workers want that they too should get equal share in political power. Keeping this in mind, we are going to form a new political party on March 15. Their (Dalits) issues will have to be raised. Mere speeches will not work for Bahujan society, one has to raise voice in their favour. They should get a share in power."

On the question that how he would find a foothold in view of large political base of the BSP, Chandrashekhar said, "We are not looking for an alternative. Look at the crores of Muslims, Dalits, members of backward community and minorities. We have to protect their interests. We have a large organisation in the state. Our Bharat Bandh was also successful".

On the question that with which party he will forge an alliance in 2022 after forming his party on March 15, Chandrashekhar said: "When we are forming our party then we don't need to go seeking alliance with anyone. Our party will be formed on the basis of some principles. Whoever will find it suitable will come close to us".

On meeting with Yogi government's former minister Om Prakash Rajbhar, he said that Rajbhar is not a controversial person. He is a big backward leader. He raises voice in favour of the backwards in the Assembly. He also supported us when I was in jail. We talked about how to stop the BJP and will take all necessary steps to prevent the BJP from coming back to power.

When asked why he had several run-ins with the police, Chandrashekhar said: "Ask this question to the police. Have I broken any law? Am I not a citizen of this country? There is no freedom of speech in the Yogi government. This is happening at the behest of the government. We are just opposing it".

Talking about the CAA, NRC and the NPR, he said: "We will not stage protest because the government does not want it. Any law which is wrong in our view will be opposed. This is a secular country. The CAA will divide the country. If there is anything against the Indian Constitution, we will raise our voice. Laws will not be allowed to be made on the basis of religion".

New Delhi, Feb 11: AAP leader Sanjay Singh on Tuesday said his party will register a "massive win" in the high-stakes Delhi Assembly election, counting for which began amid tight security at various centres set up to carry out the exercise.

Initial trends suggested the ruling Aam Aadmi Party marching ahead, but the Bharatiya Janata Party leaders maintained that their party would win.

The counting began at 8 am and will be held in multiple rounds, Delhi Chief Electoral Officer Ranbir Singh said.